One reason why President George W. Bush may have stretched his lead over Democrat John Kerry in September, following the Republican National Convention, is that the GOP's emphasis on Bush's "leadership" may have struck the right chord at the right time. Not only has the leadership factor been important to voters this year, but also the recent controversy surrounding CBS News' reports about Bush's service record seems to have blunted Kerry's efforts to focus public attention on campaign issues.
At this time, a 47% plurality of all Americans and 46% of swing voters* say that "the leadership skills and vision you think the candidate would have as president" will be more important to their presidential votes than "where the candidate stands on issues that matter to you."
But all of this does not necessarily mean that issues won't be relevant come Election Day. A substantial minority of Americans (39%), as well as the same proportion of "swing voters" (those who have yet to lock in their candidate preference), say that issues will be more important to their presidential vote choice than the candidates' leadership skills and vision.
The question is, to the extent that issues matter, which issues stand to influence the election most? Gallup has two recent measures that tap the public's issue priorities. One asks respondents to say which of four major issues confronting the United States -- the economy, terrorism, the situation in Iraq, or healthcare -- will be most important to their votes. The other is Gallup's standard open-ended measurement of the most important problem facing the country today.
No single issue holds sway over a majority of Americans, but according to both measures, the economy leads Americans' list of concerns; Iraq and terrorism rank second or third; healthcare comes in fourth.
In both cases, Kerry supporters show particular concern for the economy, while Bush voters are focused on terrorism. These tendencies, however, could simply reflect an issues feedback loop -- voters are merely naming the issues their preferred candidates have emphasized at various times -- rather than providing any real insights into the issues motivating voter support for each candidate.
Potentially more important are the issues of concern to soft or uncommitted voters. Here we see that swing voters (Kerry and Bush partisans who say there is a chance they might change their minds, plus truly undecided voters) are much more similar to firm Kerry voters in their answers than they are to firm Bush voters. The economy is the clear priority of swing voters (chosen by 43%), while terrorism, at 11%, ranks last. Swing voters are more focused on healthcare, however, than are either Bush or Kerry voters.
The pattern is somewhat different when looking at answers to the "most important problem" question across the past four months. Here, again, the plurality of Kerry voters name the economy, while Bush voters are particularly focused on terrorism. But undecided voters (in this case defined simply as those who don't make a presidential choice when first asked) are about equally split between the economy and the situation in Iraq. Terrorism ranks a close third; healthcare is a distant fourth.
Bottom Line
The name of the presidential election game from here until Nov. 2 is appealing to swing voters (and particularly swing voters in swing states). Discussion of the issues may be on the sidelines. But to the extent that issues matter, it is clear that the economy (including jobs) is top dog. Whether focusing on the one in six Americans who can be defined as swing voters, or the much smaller 6% who are truly undecided, the economy ranks as the No. 1 concern.
After the economy, the rank of issues becomes a bit unclear. In an open-ended measure of the top problems facing the United States, Iraq and terrorism rank a close second and third among undecided voters; healthcare is a distant fourth. But in a forced choice question specifically asking about the issues that will be important to voters in the fall election, healthcare ranks second among swing voters, well ahead of Iraq and terrorism.
*The latest results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,018 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 3-5, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Analysis of the "most important problem facing the country" is based on an aggregate of four surveys conducted from June to September: June 3-6; July 8-11; Aug. 9-11; and Sept. 13-15. The total sample includes interviews with 4,049 national adults, and has an associated margin of error of ±2 percentage points.
