Standoff in Second Debate

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Sen. John Kerry and President George W. Bush battled each other to a virtual tie in Friday night's presidential debate, according to a random sample of 515 registered voters who watched the event. Forty-seven percent of viewers said Kerry did the better job; 45% picked Bush. This is a much more positive rating than what Bush received after the first debate, which viewers said Kerry won by 53% to 37%.

Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in the debate -- [ROTATED: John Kerry (or) George W. Bush]?

Democrats rallied behind Kerry's performance by 87% to 8%, while Republicans rallied behind Bush's performance by a slightly smaller margin, 83% to 10%. But independents chose Kerry by a 16-point margin, 53% to 37%.

The reason the overall figures show only a slight advantage for Kerry, despite his greater margin among his own party and winning the independent vote, is that the sample of viewers had more Republicans (38%) than Democrats (32%) or independents (30%). Also, the sample of viewers support Bush over Kerry in the presidential race by 50% to 46%.

The poll shows a modest gender gap in the rating of the two candidates, with women choosing Kerry as the winner by a nine-point margin (50% to 41%), and men leaning toward Bush by a three-point margin (48% to 45%). In the first debate, male and female viewers gave virtually identical responses.

Other Poll Findings

Overall, 38% of viewers said they felt more favorably toward Kerry as a result of the debate, while 20% felt less favorably -- a net positive of 18 points. By comparison, Bush received a net positive of 11 points -- 31% of viewers said they felt more favorably and 20% less favorably toward Bush because of the debate.

How has your opinion of John Kerry/George W. Bush been affected by the debate? Is your opinion of Kerry/Bush -- more favorable, less favorable, or has it not changed much? [Names rotated.]

In the first debate, Kerry received a net positive score of 33 points on the more favorable vs. less favorable ratings, compared with just 4 points for Bush, a further indication of how much better Bush did in this debate than the first one.

On who can better handle the issues of terrorism and Iraq, viewers moved more toward Bush than Kerry after the debate. On the economy, viewers edged toward Kerry.

• Viewers said they thought Bush would handle the economy better than Kerry, by 50% to 44% before the debate. Afterward, viewers split evenly, with 49% each choosing Kerry and Bush.
• Kerry was favored on Iraq before the debate, by 50% to 46%. After the debate, viewers switched to Bush by 53% to 46%.
• Viewers also gave increased support to Bush on terrorism, initially favoring the president by 52% to 45%, but favoring him by an even larger margin after the debate, 56% to 39%.

Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think John Kerry or George W. Bush would better handle each of the following issues. How about -- [Random Order]?

As in the first debate, viewers were much more likely to say that Kerry expressed himself more clearly than Bush (54% to 37%), and -- on the other side -- that Bush rather than Kerry demonstrated he is tough enough for the job (53% to 40%). But Kerry's margin this time (17 points) was smaller than his margin in the first debate (28 points), additional evidence that Bush's performance was better in the second debate. On the other hand, Bush's margin on being tough enough for the job was slightly lower this time (13 points) than it was in the first debate (17 points).

The poll also shows a slight edge for Kerry on having a good understanding of the issues (five-point advantage), while Bush had a slight edge on being more believable (four-point advantage). Viewers split almost evenly on which candidate agreed with them more on the issues they care about (Bush by one point) and who was more likable (Bush by two points).

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one better described John Kerry or George W. Bush during tonight's debate. How about -- [Random Order]?

SUMMARY TABLE: KERRY VS. BUSH ON QUALITIES AND CHARACTERISTICS

The spirited debate was marked by the candidates' frequent criticisms of each others' records and public statements. But about 6 of 10 viewers found each candidate's criticisms to be fair, while about 4 of 10 thought they were unfair.

Survey Methods

All results are based on telephone interviews with 515 registered voters, aged 18 and older, who watched the presidential debate Oct. 8, 2004. Respondents were first interviewed Oct. 6-7, 2004, when they indicated there was some chance they would watch Friday's debate and were willing to be called back. For results based on the total sample of debate watchers, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

1. Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in the debate -- [ROTATED: John Kerry (or) George W. Bush]?

Trends for Comparison:

Q.2-3 ROTATED

2. How has your opinion of John Kerry been affected by the debate? Is your opinion of Kerry -- more favorable, less favorable, or has it not changed much?

3. How has your opinion of George W. Bush been affected by the debate? Is your opinion of Bush -- more favorable, less favorable, or has it not changed much?

Trends for Comparison:

5. Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think John Kerry or George W. Bush would better handle each of the following issues. How about -- [random order]?

A. The economy

B. The situation in Iraq

C. Terrorism

6. Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one better described John Kerry or George W. Bush during tonight's debate. How about -- [Random Order]?

A. Agreed with you more on the issues you care about

Trends for Comparison:

B. Expressed himself more clearly

Trends for Comparison:

C. Had a good understanding of the issues

Trends for Comparison:

D. Was more believable

Trends for Comparison:

E. Was more likable

Trends for Comparison:

F. Demonstrated he is tough enough for the job

SUMMARY TABLE: KERRY VS. BUSH ON QUALITIES AND CHARACTERISTICS

Q.8-9 ROTATED

8. In the debate tonight, overall, do you think John Kerry's criticism of George W. Bush was fair or unfair?