GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Sen. John Kerry won the third and final presidential debate Wednesday night, 52% to 39%, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey of registered voters who watched the event.
About 4 in 10 viewers said they felt more favorable about the senator because of the debate, a third more than said that about President George W. Bush. Kerry also beat the president by double digits on being able to handle the issue of healthcare, expressing himself clearly, showing he cares about the needs of people, and having a good understanding of the issues.
The poll was conducted immediately after the end of the debate, at 10:30 p.m. Eastern time, among a random sample of 511 registered voters who had previously told Gallup they would be willing to be interviewed after the debate. Respondents indicated before the debate that they supported Kerry by 51% to 47%, though party affiliation was evenly divided among Republicans and Democrats, 36% each, with 28% independents.
The 13-point margin in Kerry's favor was slightly smaller than his 16-point margin of victory measured after the first debate, but better than the virtual tie after the second debate (Kerry 47%, Bush 45%).
Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in the debate -- [ROTATED: John Kerry (or) George W. Bush]?
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BOTH/EQUALLY |
|
|
Kerry/Bush 2004 |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
2004 Oct 13 |
52 |
39 |
1 |
8 |
* |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 Oct 8 |
47 |
45 |
1 |
7 |
* |
|
2004 Sep 30 |
53 |
37 |
1 |
8 |
1 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
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|
* Less than 0.5% |
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Democrats and Republicans each gave overwhelming support to their own party's candidate, though Kerry's margin among Democrats (86% to 7%) was larger than Bush's support among Republicans (73% to 17%). Independents chose Kerry the winner by 54% to 34%.
Who Did Better in the Debate
Compared by Party Affiliation and by Voter
Intentions
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BOTH/EQUALLY |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Republicans |
17 |
73 |
2 |
8 |
* |
|
Independents |
54 |
34 |
1 |
10 |
1 |
|
Democrats |
86 |
7 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kerry Voters |
89 |
2 |
1 |
8 |
0 |
|
Bush Voters |
11 |
80 |
1 |
7 |
1 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
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* Less than 0.5% |
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Similarly, voters committed to each candidate overwhelmingly chose their own candidate as the winner. Again, however, Kerry's margin among his voters (89% to 2%) was greater than Bush's margin among his voters (80% to 11%).
The poll also shows that 42% of viewers said they felt more favorable toward Kerry as a result of the debate, while just 15% felt less favorable. By comparison, 27% of viewers felt more favorable toward Bush, and 17% felt less favorable.
How has your opinion of John Kerry/George W. Bush been affected by the debate? Is your opinion of Kerry -- more favorable, less favorable, or has it not changed much? [Names rotated.]
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|
More favorable |
Less |
Not changed much |
No |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kerry |
42% |
15 |
43 |
* |
|
Bush |
27% |
17 |
56 |
0 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
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Kerry did especially well on personal characteristics. He was seen as better able to express himself clearly by better than a two-to-one margin (61% to 29%), and he beat the president by more than 10 percentage points on caring "about the needs of people like you" (53% to 41%) and having "a good understanding of the issues" (49% to 37%).
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one better described John Kerry or George W. Bush during tonight's debate. How about -- [Random Order]?
|
2004 Oct 13 |
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|
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
Expressed himself more clearly |
61 |
29 |
+32 |
|
|
Showed he cares about the needs of people like you |
53 |
41 |
+12 |
|
|
Had a good understanding of the issues |
49 |
37 |
+12 |
|
|
Agreed with you more on the issues you care about |
53 |
46 |
+7 |
|
|
Showed he shares your values |
50 |
46 |
+4 |
|
|
Was more believable |
48 |
45 |
+3 |
|
|
Was more likable |
43 |
48 |
-5 |
|
|
+ |
Advantage indicates Kerry lead |
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- |
Advantage indicates Bush lead |
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Kerry also had a 7-point advantage on Bush on which candidate "agreed with you more on the issues you care about" (53% to 46%). On sharing values and being more believable, Kerry edged the president by 4 points and 3 points respectively. Bush beat Kerry by 5 points on being more likable.
Among four domestic issues measured in the poll, healthcare provided the clearest winner, with 55% of viewers saying Kerry could handle the issue better, compared with 41% who chose Bush.
Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think John Kerry or George W. Bush would better handle each of the following issues. How about -- [Random Order]?
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2004 Oct 13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
Healthcare |
55 |
41 |
+14 |
|
|
The economy |
51 |
46 |
+5 |
|
|
Education |
48 |
47 |
+1 |
|
|
Taxes |
47 |
50 |
-3 |
|
|
+ |
Advantage indicates Kerry lead |
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|
- |
Advantage indicates Bush lead |
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Kerry edged Bush on the economy by five points (51% Kerry, 46% Bush), the candidates essentially tied on education (Kerry 48%, Bush 47%), and Bush had a 3-point advantage on taxes (50% Bush, 47% Kerry).
Survey Methods
All results are based on telephone interviews with 511 registered voters, aged 18 and older, who watched the presidential debate Oct. 13, 2004. Respondents were first interviewed Oct. 11-12, 2004, when they indicated there was some chance they would watch tonight's debate and were willing to be called back. For results based on the total sample of debate watchers, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.
