Monday marked the one-year anniversary of the capture of deposed Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. What's the latest on American opinion about Iraq?
We are not finding any dramatic change in how the American public views U.S. progress in Iraq.
Iraq remains the single issue most likely to be named by Americans as the most important problem facing the country; according to Gallup's Dec. 5-8 poll, 23% say Iraq is the top problem, compared with 26% in November, 23% in October, and 23% in September.
Is this percentage different from the percentage that mentioned the Vietnam War as the top problem in those days?
Definitely. From about 1965 to 1970, Gallup Polls consistently showed about 30% or more of Americans mentioning Vietnam as the top problem facing the country. This percentage peaked in 1967 at 55%.
In short, Iraq does not currently generate nearly the same level of spontaneous mention as the nation's top problem as Vietnam did in the 1960s. The contrasting levels of concern about Iraq and Vietnam are no doubt partly related to the relative difference in the U.S. commitment to these two wars. At its peak, the United States had more than 500,000 soldiers in Vietnam, while the current number of U.S. troops in Iraq is about 140,000. Additionally, deaths of U.S. armed forces members in Vietnam moved into the tens of thousands as the 1960s wore on, while to date about 1,300 American soldiers have died in Iraq.
Have Americans this year become more likely to see the situation in Iraq as worsening or getting better?
There hasn't been a lot of change in Gallup's measure of "how things are going in Iraq" this year. The big picture is clear: Americans are more negative than positive about U.S. progress in Iraq. In Gallup's just-completed poll, 40% say things are going well in that country, while a majority (59%) say things are going badly.
These perceptions have varied only somewhat from poll to poll during 2004. Overall, Americans were most positive in May 2003 (not long after U.S. troops moved into Baghdad and President George W. Bush made his "mission accomplished" speech on board an aircraft carrier), when 86% said things were going well in Iraq, and most negative in April 2004, when 35% said things were going well.
How is President Bush's job approval rating?
Bush's rating hasn't changed much since the election. Since Nov. 2, Gallup's three measures of the public's approval of Bush's job performance have been 53%, 55%, and 53% (the last measure from the Dec. 5-8 poll). All three measures are up slightly from 48%, Bush's last job approval rating before Election Day.
Putting Bush's current rating into some context, his average rating so far across his first term (which will officially end when he is sworn in for his second term on Jan. 20, 2005) has been 63%. His average rating is high, of course, because of the dramatically high ratings he received after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. But Bush's current rating is just a few points below the average rating of all presidents Gallup has measured since Franklin Roosevelt -- 56%.
Going into his second term, Bush is less well-situated than the other presidents who have been re-elected since 1956 -- at least based on December job approval ratings. Bill Clinton in 1996, Ronald Reagan in 1984, Richard Nixon in 1972, Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and Dwight Eisenhower in 1956 all had higher job approval ratings in December than Bush's current 53%. These ratings were not at all predictive, however, of the success of these presidents' second terms. Johnson's and Nixon's ratings, in particular, took dramatic nosedives in their second terms, because of Vietnam and Watergate, respectively. Reagan and Clinton, however, had higher average ratings in their second terms than they did in their first terms, partly because they both received very poor ratings during the first two or three years of their presidencies because of a weak economy.
It is possible, but not likely, that Bush's job approval ratings during his second term will be as high as those he received in his first term.
The Christmas shopping season is moving into its final two weeks, and news reports have indicated that spending is flat. Is there a spark of hope for Christmas retailers?
Indeed, we have measured a sharp uptick in the amount of money Americans say they are going to spend this Christmas season. In mid-November, the average American told Gallup he or she would be spending $730. Now, in our Dec. 5-8 poll, Americans have accelerated their average estimate to $862 -- a major jump of $132.
It's not unusual for the estimated spending amount to go up as Christmas draws nearer, but this year's jump is considerably larger than others we have measured in prior years. There was an increase in projected spending across all income categories. But a detailed analysis shows that the spending estimates jumped most among those who say they will spend $1,000 or more. In November, the average estimate in that group was $1,602. Now, people in that group say they will spend $1,788 on average, an increase of $186. The projected amount of those in the lower spending groups is similar in December to what we found in November.
It remains to be seen whether a last-minute surge in spending will save the season for retailers -- particularly in the "accessible luxury" market that has been receiving so much attention this year. Some observers have argued that Americans may be waiting longer to buy presents in hopes of last-minute sales. Also, as I've pointed out before, a lot of Christmas spending may be taking place on the Internet, where it is harder to measure.
Has the uptick in projected Christmas spending been accompanied by a more general increase in economic positivity?
No. Ratings of the current economy are virtually unchanged from last month, and essentially little changed over the entire year (with the exception of January 2004, when Americans were -- in the short term -- a little more positive).
This year's ratings of the current economy seem quite stable when juxtaposed against the more volatile future economic expectations numbers. Right now, 47% of Americans say the economy is getting better, while 42% say it is getting worse. That's a net positive rating of five percentage points. But at other times this year we measured net negative expectations, including October's 11-point net negative difference between the "getting better" and "getting worse" numbers.
The Federal Reserve Board meets Tuesday and most observers believe short-term interest rates will be raised. That won't surprise Americans, 73% of whom say that interest rates in general will be going up over the next six months, compared with only 8% who say they will be going down.
The new movie, "Kinsey," stars Liam Neeson as Dr. Alfred Kinsey, the famous sex researcher of the 1940s and 1950s. What did Americans think of Kinsey's work in those days?
Gallup did ask about Kinsey in 1948 and again in 1953. Perhaps surprisingly, the reaction to Kinsey at the time was not nearly as negative as the movie might lead some to believe.
To be sure, in January 1948, only 21% of Americans said they had "read or heard about the book on sex written by Dr. Kinsey of Indiana University." But when Gallup explained that Kinsey had completed a "9-year study on the sex behavior of males in this country," 62% of those interviewed said they thought it was a good thing to have this information on sex available. Eleven percent said it was a bad thing.
By July 1953, 43% of Americans had heard about Kinsey's studies on sex, and the reaction to his book about "female sex behavior" (as it was described in the survey) was a shade more negative, with 50% saying it was a good thing to have this information available, and 19% saying it was a bad thing.
More generally, the 1953 Gallup Poll showed that 47% of Americans disapproved of the idea of sex problems being "scientifically and frankly discussed by medical authorities in daily newspapers," while 41% approved.
Speaking of movies, how many does the average American see in an average year?
The average American attends 4.7 movies a year, based on the results of Gallup's December 2004 Lifestyle poll.
Democrats average seeing 5.5 movies a year, while Republicans average only 4.0. There are a host of possible explanations for this difference, but none make total sense. Maybe Michael Moore's successful anti-Bush documentary -- Fahrenheit 911 -- sparked Democrats' interest in movies.
National Public Radio (NPR) talk show host Tavis Smiley leaves the air this Thursday, amid some controversy. Is talk radio becoming an increasingly important source of information for Americans?
Not that we can tell. The well-publicized departure of Smiley, the host of the first predominantly African-American show on NPR, has added to the controversy surrounding other radio personalities such as Howard Stern, Don Imus, and Bob Edwards, and calls our attention to the power of the aural medium. But Gallup's recent update on the ways in which Americans get news and information does not show any significant increase in the use of radio.
Twenty-nine percent of Americans say they get news and information from NPR several times a week or more -- roughly the same as in the previous years when we have asked this question.
Thirty-three percent of Americans get news from radio talk shows, roughly similar to 2002, but considerably higher than at several points in the 1990s.
There is indeed a slight conservative tilt toward use of talk radio. Forty percent of conservatives say they listen to talk radio for news several times a week or more, compared with 28% of liberals. On the other hand, liberals are slightly more likely to report listening to NPR than are conservatives.
College football is heading toward the bowl season. What is the sentiment about the controversial Bowl Championship Series (BCS) system that has left Auburn out of the national championship game?
College football fans seem to like the idea of changing the system. We gave college football fans three choices in the Dec. 5-8 poll -- keep the current BCS system as is, go to a single-game playoff after the bowls, or move to a broad playoff tournament much like the one used by NCAA basketball. Just 30% chose the current system, while the plurality, 40%, want a playoff tournament and 26% want a one-game playoff.