Public's Evaluation of Iraq War Grows More Negative

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds the public's assessment of the war in Iraq growing more negative. A majority of Americans disapprove of the way the United States has handled the situation in Iraq in recent months, and nearly half believe the situation there is worse now than it was a year ago. The public continues to be divided in its basic support for the war.

The Dec. 17-19 poll finds Americans, by a 58% to 39% margin, saying they disapprove of "the way the U.S. has handled the situation in Iraq in the past few months." A year ago, just after the United States captured former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, 65% of Americans approved of the way the United States was handling the situation in Iraq.

These more negative perceptions may be fueled in part by growing criticism of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, much of it brought on by his Dec. 8 meeting with U.S. troops in Kuwait. In that meeting, soldiers complained of substandard equipment. However, a Gallup Poll conducted largely before Rumsfeld's meeting with the soldiers showed that views of the Iraq situation were already growing more pessimistic. In that Dec. 5-8 poll, 40% of Americans said things were going well for the United States in Iraq, while 59% said things were going badly. In September, 46% of Americans said things were going well and 52% badly.

Only a small minority of Americans perceive the situation in Iraq as having improved over the past year. Nearly half of Americans, 47%, evaluate the situation in Iraq as worse than it was a year ago. Thirty-two percent say it is the same, and only 20% say it is better.

Still, the public remains divided over the Iraq war. Forty-eight percent of Americans approve and 51% disapprove of the "United States' decision to go to war with Iraq in March 2003." Gallup has asked a variety of questions to gauge basic support for the war, all showing similar results. For example, in November, 48% of Americans said they favored the war and 46% said they opposed it. In that same poll, 47% of Americans said it was a mistake to send U.S. troops to Iraq; 51% said it was not.

All of these results suggest that Americans' basic support for the war is consistent, in recent polls and across different question wordings. Regardless of the question asked, the vast majority of Republicans are in favor of the war and the vast majority of Democrats are opposed. For example, in the latest poll, 80% of Republicans approve of the decision to go to war, while 80% of Democrats are opposed.

Looking to the Elections

A majority of Americans express some optimism about the upcoming elections in Iraq, currently scheduled for the end of January. Fifty-five percent believe the elections will produce a stable democratic government in Iraq, while 41% disagree. Of the 55% who believe there will be a stable post-election government in Iraq, 40% say the United States will need to maintain its current troop levels for at least a year, while 15% believe the United States will be able to significantly reduce the number of troops it has in Iraq.

Half of Americans say they favor sending additional U.S. troops to Iraq to help with the upcoming elections, while 48% are opposed.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,002 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Dec. 17-19, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

19. Do you approve or disapprove of the United States' decision to go to war with Iraq in March 2003?

20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. has handled the situation in Iraq in the past few months?

Trends for Comparison: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. has handled the situation with Iraq since the major fighting ended in April 2003?

21. Compared to a year ago, do you think the situation for the United States in Iraq is -- [ROTATED: better, about the same, or worse]?

Q.22-23 SPLIT SAMPLED

22. Would you favor or oppose sending additional U.S. troops to Iraq to help with the upcoming elections in Iraq?

BASED ON 478 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

23. As you may know, elections will be held in Iraq early next year. Which comes closest to your view -- [ROTATED: the elections will not produce a stable democratic government in Iraq, the elections will produce a stable democratic government in Iraq, but the U.S. will need to keep the same number of troops it has there for at least another year, or the elections will produce a stable democratic government in Iraq and the U.S. will be able to significantly reduce the number of troops it has there within the next year]?

BASED ON 524 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

37-1. In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq -- [ROTATED: very well, moderately well, moderately badly, (or) very badly]?