Bush in Europe
It would be hard to miss the fact that President Bush is in the middle of a European trip to Belgium, Germany, and Slovakia. He's making speeches, meeting with leaders of France, Britain, Ukraine, Italy, Germany, and Russia, and generally attempting to mend fences.
As the administration itself has at least tacitly acknowledged, now is not a particularly auspicious time for the United States internationally, a fact of life about which the American public is certainly well aware. Gallup's February 2005 World Affairs poll shows less than half of Americans (45%) approve of the way Bush is handling foreign affairs, and only about a third (35%) say the leaders of other countries around the world respect Bush (the lowest rating on that question across the 12 times Gallup has asked it). Slightly more than half (51%) of Americans are dissatisfied with the position of the United States in the world at this time.
One of the major goals of Bush's European trip is his effort to reach some form of rapprochement after the fractious falling out that occurred after several European countries failed to support the U.S. entry into Iraq in March 2003. American opinion of several of these countries fell sharply around the time the war started, and new Gallup polling shows that while some countries' images have recovered, others have not.
In particular, the image of France (whose leader, President Jacques Chirac, met with Bush in Brussels on Monday) is recovering bit by bit, but certainly not to the robust levels that existed before the Iraq war. For years leading up to 2002, far more than 7 in 10 Americans routinely indicated they had a favorable opinion of France. By March 2003, only 34% of Americans said their opinion of France was favorable. Last year, France's favorable rating recovered to 47% and this year, it's up slightly to 51%, but still a long way from its pre-war highs.
Germany is a somewhat different story. That country's image among Americans is almost back to historical norms (73% favorable as of this month). Germany's image didn't fall as low as France's to begin with; the low point for Germany in March 2003 was 49% favorable.
It's not surprising that Great Britain is No. 1 on the list of 24 countries Americans rated in the World Affairs poll. Ninety-one percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of Great Britain. That's nothing new. Americans have almost always given high ratings to fellow English-speaking countries.
Americans' views of Russia also fell in early 2003 to 41%, but have now returned to 61% favorable. That's not particularly high compared with other countries, but one of the most favorable ratings Russia has received.
Gallup measured the American public's attitudes toward Ukraine for the first time this year and found that the former Soviet Republic has a quite positive image in the eyes of Americans (67% favorable).
Who's the Enemy?
For many years after World War II there was little debate on the question of which countries were the United States' greatest enemies. The classic Cold War antagonists -- the Soviet Union and China -- easily won that distinction. But over the last 15 years as the Cold War has ended, the list of America's enemies has become somewhat more diffuse.
Iraq has occupied the "greatest enemy" position in Gallup surveys for a number of years, long before the Bush administration began to ratchet up the anti-Iraq rhetoric in late 2002 and early 2003. In fact, almost 4 in 10 (38%) Americans identified Iraq as America's greatest enemy in February 2001, significantly ahead of second-place China. Clearly, the residue of the first Persian Gulf War and the U.N. sanctions that followed had a telling influence on Americans' attitudes.
But Iraq is no longer alone at the top of the enemies' list -- it is now tied with North Korea. Iran has jumped to second place, followed by China and Afghanistan.
Few people (2%) spontaneously mention Syria as the United States' greatest enemy. But Syria certainly has joined the spotlight in recent weeks, as the Bush administration has recalled the U.S. ambassador to Syria in reaction to the bombing death of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
Despite its absence on the open-ended greatest enemies' list, Syria's image remains quite negative when Americans are asked to rate it directly. Only 25% of Americans have a favorable opinion of Syria, while 60% have an unfavorable opinion. That's roughly what we found in both 2000 and in 1991, the previous two times Gallup measured American opinion of that country.
Middle East Peace?
Americans have apparently picked up on the encouraging news about the prospects for peace in the Middle East. New Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has said the war with Israel is essentially over. Many across the world have marveled at the photograph of Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon shaking hands across a table at their historic meeting at Sharm el-Sheik in Egypt, and Israel's Cabinet recently approved Sharon's plan to withdraw soldiers and settlers from the Gaza Strip.
Forty-nine percent of Americans now say there will come a time when Israel and the Arab nations will be able to settle their differences and live in peace. That percentage is up from November 2003 and June 2003, although not quite as high as it was in a May 2003 poll, just after the Iraq war's initial phase had ended.
At the same time, I don't see much sign of dramatic change in Americans' positions on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Asked to indicate with whom their sympathies lie, 52% of Americans favor the Israelis, while only 18% favor the Palestinians, little changed from last year at this time.
Americans' favorable ratings of Israel are up slightly, to 69%. There has also been an uptick in ratings of the Palestinian Authority, from 15% last year to 27% this year. This is the highest rating the Palestinian Authority has received since Gallup began measuring it in 2000.
Tort Reform
On Friday, the president signed a new tort reform bill into law ("The Class Action Fairness Act"). It's a good guess that the American public is not wildly excited by the bill. A Feb. 4-6 poll found only 21% of Americans said limits on lawsuits were an extremely high priority for the administration and Congress, putting it dead last among the nine issues tested.
Baseball and Steroids
Believe it or not, Major League Baseball teams begin their first full workouts Tuesday. (Pitchers and catchers reported last Tuesday.) Jose Canseco's new book, Juiced: Wild Times, Rampant 'Roids, Smash Hits and How Baseball Got Big, was released last week, and his allegations about steroid use by himself and other big-name baseball players has already created a great deal of interest. One thing is clear: Most baseball fans are strongly in favor of new and tougher policies on steroid testing in Major League Baseball. Indeed, when Major League Baseball announced an agreement on new testing policies in January, 66% of fans said they thought the plans didn't go far enough in controlling illicit drug use among players.
JFK and Jackie
Last week, Sotheby's auctioned off items from Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis' five homes, bringing in more than $5.5 million, according to news reports. That's not surprising. Americans still remember John F. Kennedy as one of the greatest presidents of all time. Kennedy tied with Franklin D. Roosevelt with 12% of all mentions in Gallup's recent poll, behind only Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Abraham Lincoln.
Republicans and Democrats respond to this "greatest president" question in substantially different ways. Republicans overwhelmingly name Reagan, while Democrats name Clinton, followed by FDR and JFK. There are also big age differences in views on the greatest president, presumably corresponding to the imprinting that occurred in one's formative years. The youngest American adults, aged 18 to 29, name Clinton, who served as this generation came of age, as the greatest president. Those between the ages of 30 and 49 name Reagan, those aged 50 to 64 name Kennedy, and those aged 65 and older name FDR.
JFK indisputably has the highest presidential job approval ratings of any president measured since began Gallup keeping records. Kennedy averaged 70% approval, followed by Dwight Eisenhower (65%), George H.W. Bush (61%), and Clinton (55%).
The president with the lowest average job approval rating? It's a tie between Harry S. Truman and Jimmy Carter, both of whom averaged 45% for their time in office.
One interesting phenomenon that has received a good deal of news coverage in recent days is the seemingly odd-couple friendship between former presidents Clinton and Bush the elder. The two have appeared together on many occasions (including the Super Bowl pre-game show) and they jetted off to Southeast Asia last weekend to lobby the world for more tsunami relief. I call this an odd-couple pairing because the two men were bitter opponents in the 1992 presidential race, when the younger Clinton threw the elder Bush out of office. As noted, however, Bush had the higher average job approval rating for his time in office, perhaps giving him somewhat of the last laugh.
Royal Marriage
The recent announcement of the pending marriage of Prince Charles and Camilla Parker Bowles brings back memories of the celebrated 1930's scandal generated by King Edward VIII's love for the American divorcee Wallis Simpson, and his ultimate decision to abdicate the throne so he could marry her.
Gallup asked the public its thoughts about that situation in November 1936 (a month before Edward's abdication), and found a good deal of indifference, or perhaps just a lack of knowledge of the situation. Thirty-five percent of Americans said King Edward should marry Simpson, while 23% said he should not. The rest -- 42% -- didn't have an opinion on the topic.