Terri Schiavo
The Terri Schiavo situation in Florida has quickly begun to dominate the nation's news media -- garnering nonstop cable news coverage and "above the fold" positioning in most major newspapers. The story offers intense emotion, drama, family angst, conflict, and now -- after this weekend -- a political angle.
The extraordinary legislation passed by Congress and signed into law by President Bush on Monday morning is based on the underlying contention that Schiavo should not be allowed to die, despite the wishes of her husband and the rulings of various state courts and judges over the years. For many conservatives, the case is part of a larger debate on the sanctity of life -- including stem cell research and abortion.
My review of available public opinion data on this controversy leads to a couple of conclusions that may run counter to widely held assumptions about the case.
First, contrary to what one might think based on the massive news coverage of the last several days, the Schiavo case has not captured the attention of the large majority of Americans. Only 27% of Americans are following the situation very closely, putting it only mid-range in a list of news events Gallup has tracked over the years. Not surprisingly, events such as 9/11 and the beginning of the Iraq war in March 2003 attracted the highest levels of attention on record. But Americans have paid more attention to many other news events in recent years, including the plight of the Cuban boy Elian Gonzalez in 2000, the Kobe Bryant sexual assault case last year, and the death of Mother Teresa in 1997.
Second, opinions about the Schiavo case do not shake out along political lines, despite the fact that efforts to stop the removal of the feeding tube have emanated mostly from Republicans. Gallup's weekend poll shows Republicans are only slightly less likely than Democrats to approve of the removal of the feeding tube, and a majority of Americans in both partisan groups favor the decision to remove it.
This last point is key. A number of polls conducted in recent weeks have shown that Americans believe allowing Schiavo to die is the right thing to do. The weekend Gallup Poll also shows a majority of Americans would themselves have a feeding tube removed if their child or spouse were in a similar situation.
In October 2003, a Gallup Poll indicated 8 in 10 Americans think a spouse should be allowed by law to make a final decision to end a patient's life if that patient was in a persistent vegetative state caused by irreversible brain damage. Polling also consistently shows a majority of Americans support doctor-assisted suicide when a patient has a disease that cannot be cured and the patient requests it.
Scott Peterson
Last week, Scott Peterson was sentenced to death for the murder of his wife and unborn child. Gallup asked Americans about their perception of Peterson's guilt or innocence before his trial ended in January 2004, and found a significant majority (76%) thought he was probably guilty.
Gallup has not asked Americans whether they believe Peterson deserves the death penalty, but we do know a majority of the American public generally continues to support the use of the death penalty in cases of murder.
Peterson was convicted and sentenced in California, and has now become the 644th inmate with a death sentence on that state's death row at San Quentin prison. California has a slow rate of actually carrying out death sentences, however. Only 11 prisoners have been executed over the last 27 years.
Does the slow execution process in California perhaps reflect doubt about the death penalty among the state's citizens? Gallup Poll managing editor Jeff Jones aggregated Gallup's death penalty data from the past two years and compared the responses of Californians to those from the rest of the country. The results? Californians have almost exactly the same rate of support for the death penalty as Americans living in all other states.
More Court Cases
There have been other court cases in the news in recent weeks. Former Connecticut Gov. John Rowland was sentenced Friday to a year in prison for corruption in office. The former CEO of WorldCom, Bernard Ebbers, was found guilty on March 15 of fraud. (Ebbers is now awaiting his sentencing.)
I don't think that the outcomes of either of these cases come as a great shock to the American public. Unfortunately, there is already a great deal of negativity about both the ethical standards of elected representatives and business executives. In Gallup's November 2004 update of the public's rating of the honesty and ethics of various professions, business executives came in fifth from the bottom of the list of 21 professions. Only 20% of Americans think business executives have very high or high honesty and ethical standards. State officeholders fare a little better, receiving a very high or high ethical rating by 24% of Americans.
By way of comparison, nurses topped the list with a 79% positive honesty and ethical rating. Car salesmen have the lowest ethical ratings; only 9% of Americans rate their honesty as very high or high.
Baseball and Steroids
Last week, Americans were confronted with the highly unusual spectacle of famous baseball players appearing before a House committee investigating steroid abuse in Major League Baseball.
Public opinion on steroids can be summarized quite simply: Steroid use should be limited as much as possible. Gallup polling has also established that sports fans are quite skeptical when famous baseball players deny taking steroids. For example, a recent poll found that 77% of sports fans think San Francisco Giants star Barry Bonds was not telling the truth when he "acknowledged that he used steroids but said he was not aware that the substances he was using were actually steroids." This weekend, our poll showed big majorities of baseball fans believe Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, and Sammy Sosa used steroids.
More generally, baseball fans estimate 40% of Major League Baseball players have used steroids or other performance-enhancing drugs during the past five seasons.
A December Quinnipiac University poll showed, by the way, that a majority of baseball fans do not believe records (such as McGwire's season home-run record) should be wiped out for players who test positive for steroids or other performance-enhancing drugs.
ANWR
This past week, the Senate voted to allow drilling for oil in part of Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). This issue has become a highly symbolic, with environmentalists decrying the attempt to drill in ANWR as another effort by big oil to increase profits at the cost of disrupting the environment, and conservatives arguing drilling is necessary to help reduce dependence on energy from foreign nations.
Available public opinion data suggest the public continues to come down on the side of the environmentalists. Asked directly if they favor or oppose opening ANWR for oil exploration, 53% of Americans say they oppose it, while 42% favor it. (More detailed data also show that opponents of drilling feel more strongly about the issue than do drilling advocates.)
More generally, when poll questions pit energy production against protecting the environment or conservation, Americans support protecting the environment and conservation, rather than producing more energy. This goes along with the finding that Americans are not yet alarmed about the energy situation in this country, despite continually increasing gas prices.
Social Security
U.S. senators and representatives are now back in their home states for Easter vacation (although they certainly don't call it that; the House of Representatives Web site calls it a "Spring District Work Period"). There's little doubt that they are hearing from their constituents about Social Security -- the major domestic issue of the moment.
The Bush administration push on Social Security has moved the issue more prominently into the forefront of the American consciousness. Last year, for example, only between 1% and 5% of Americans mentioned Social Security as the most important problem facing the country. But that percentage jumped to 12% in February and March 2005, making Social Security the second most frequently mentioned issue after Iraq.
Additionally, 23% of Americans say Social Security will be the most important problem facing the country in 25 years. Last year only 10% said so, and the year before it was 5%.
The jury is still out on what the public thinks should be done to fix Social Security. A majority of Americans are opposed to fixes that involve things such as extending the retirement age or increasing Social Security taxes. But support for personal or private investment accounts is still up in the air. Many poll questions that probe American attitudes on private accounts indicate majority opposition, but most of these remind respondents of some negative aspects of the plan. Other, more straightforward questions show majority support. Public opinion is still movable in either direction.
One thing is clear: Bush himself has become a sacrificial lamb on this issue. His approval ratings on handling Social Security are quite low in all of the polling I have seen. Where tracking information are available, Bush's ratings on this issue have gone down rather than up.
Iraq
This past weekend marked the second anniversary of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, which commenced officially on March 19, 2003.
The public still has mixed feelings about Iraq. Gallup's weekend poll shows 46% of Americans think U.S. involvement in Iraq was a mistake. Forty-seven percent "favor the U.S. war with Iraq" and 47% oppose it.
Easter
Last Sunday was Palm Sunday and this coming Sunday is Easter, one of the Christian world's most important holidays.
In a broad sense, America is not a religiously diverse nation, but rather a dominantly Christian nation. Gallup's annual compilation of data on religion shows a little more than 8 in 10 Americans identify as Christian: 24% Catholic, 50% Protestant, and 7% "other Christian."