Bush's Approval Rating in Perspective

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Last week's CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll measured the lowest job approval rating of George W. Bush's presidency to date -- 45%, one point lower than his previous low. While not good news for Bush, there are some silver linings for him in that other presidents' lowest approval ratings were much lower and that Bush's average rating while in office remains among the most positive for recent presidents. Nevertheless, Bush's public support is significantly lower than support for all other two-term presidents at similar points in their second terms.

Gallup's March 21-23 poll, conducted during the controversy over government involvement in the Terri Schiavo case and in the midst of rising gas prices, found 45% of Americans approving and 49% disapproving of the way Bush is handling his job as president. Bush received a similar 46% approval rating and slightly higher 51% disapproval rating last May, following reports of abuse of Iraqi prisoners by U.S. soldiers.

Even though Bush's approval rating has hit a personal low, it is still relatively high by historical standards when compared to other presidents at their low points. In fact, Bush's low rating is higher than the lows of all other recent presidents except John Kennedy and Dwight Eisenhower. Four presidents hit bottom below the 30% approval level -- Harry Truman (22%), Richard Nixon (24%), Jimmy Carter (28%), and the elder George Bush (29%). Four others bottomed out below 40% -- Lyndon Johnson (35%), Gerald Ford (37%), Ronald Reagan (35%), and Bill Clinton (37%). Kennedy's low point was 56%; Eisenhower's, 49%.

Most presidents' low approval ratings can be attributed to events that were demonstrably not going well for the United States -- specifically, the Korean War for Truman, the Vietnam War and racial tensions for Johnson, imminent impeachment for Nixon over the Watergate scandal, the energy crisis for Carter, and flagging economies for Ford, Reagan, and Bush the elder.

Also of note is that Johnson's and the elder Bush's low points came in polls completed just after the opposition parties held their presidential nominating conventions, which likely served to focus the nation's attention on its problems and to lay the blame for those squarely on the president's shoulders.

Bush's Presidency in Historical Perspective

In large part because of his response to the Sept. 11 terror attacks, George W. Bush remains one of the most highly rated presidents in Gallup annals. His term-to-date average approval rating of 61% is surpassed by only Kennedy and Eisenhower, and is the same as his father's.

Earlier in his term, the younger Bush's average approval rating rivaled that of Kennedy -- after two full years in office, Bush's average job rating was 69%. But that cumulative average has been increasingly weighed down by ratings consistently around 50% for the better part of a year. In fact, nearly all of Bush's approval ratings since early 2004 have been below average by historical standards, given that the average Gallup presidential approval rating since the 1930s is 56%.

Thus, Bush's full-term average of 61% is more a reflection of where Bush has been than where he is going. All other presidents who were re-elected to a second term had approval ratings well above 50% in the March following their re-election.

Bush still has more than three full years left in his second term, and he faces considerable challenges, including the war in Iraq, the war on terrorism, record budget deficits, and Social Security reform. His ability to successfully negotiate these issues will help determine if 45% is the absolute low point of his presidency or if his approval ratings will achieve new lows.