Pope John Paul II
Pope John Paul II was clearly revered among American Catholics, two-thirds of whom say he will go down in history as one of the greatest popes, and 7 in 10 of whom say the Catholic Church will eventually make John Paul II a saint.
About one-quarter of American adults are Catholic, a percentage that has really not changed much over time. Thus, Catholicism is by no means the dominant Christian religion in the United States. Well over half of American Christians identify with a Christian faith other than Catholicism.
Still, even non-Catholics in the United States believe the choice of a new pope will be significant. Forty-one percent of non-Catholics say the new pope will matter a great deal to the world, and another 35% say it will matter a moderate amount. Fifty-five percent of U.S. Catholics say the choice of a new pope will matter a great deal. I find it interesting, however, that only 36% of U.S. Catholics say it matters a great deal to them personally who gets chosen as pope, while about a third say that it won't matter much to them at all.
An analysis of more than 24,000 responses to Gallup's religious preference question in 2004 shows Catholics are no longer significantly different from the rest of the country on standard measures of religiosity. Catholics used to attend church more frequently than others. No more. And Catholics are actually less likely than non-Catholics to indicate that religion is very important in their daily lives.
What else do we know about American Catholics? They are much more likely to live on the East Coast than any other region, and are less likely to live in the South (which is dominated by Protestants). Catholics are slightly overrepresented among Americans with higher incomes, in contrast to Protestants, whose incomes skew lower.
Politically, Catholics are not sharply differentiated from the rest of the country. They are slightly more likely to identify as Democrats than Republicans or independents, but these differences are not large. This also stands in contrast to Protestants, who are significantly more likely to identify as Republicans than as either Democrats or independents.
Gallup routinely asks Americans to identify with one of three ideological labels: conservative, moderate, or liberal. Catholics are not significantly more likely than the overall population to identify with any of these labels. Again, Protestants are much more likely than average to say they are conservatives.
From a theological perspective, Gallup's weekend poll confirms Catholics tilt toward desiring a more liberal pope. Although the majority (59%) of Catholics say the new pope should be about the same as Pope John Paul II, a third say the new pope should be more liberal (only 4% say the new pope should be more conservative than John Paul II).
There is even stronger evidence in the poll that American Catholics would like the new pope to adopt more liberal positions on a list of specific issues. Perhaps most importantly, 63% of American Catholics want a new pope to allow priests to marry, and 55% think women should be ordained as priests. These sentiments may reflect a reaction to the child sexual abuse scandals that have rocked the Catholic Church in the United States in recent years. But a look at Gallup's historical data shows Catholics have favored such reforms for a number of years. For example, in a June 1971 Gallup Poll, 54% of Catholics favored allowing priests to marry and continue functioning as priests. In 1993, 64% of Catholics agreed it would be a good thing if women were allowed to be ordained as priests.
Still, there is not much desire among Catholics for the new pope to relent on abortion; a majority of Catholics say he should not "make church doctrine on abortion less strict."
Gallup's weekend poll also shows practicing Catholics (those who attend church weekly or more often) are more conservative than other Catholics in terms of these proposed changes. In other words, active Catholics are less sure that the new pope should alter the church's position on these issues. The sample sizes involved are small, but the results are not surprising. I presume many Catholics who are dissatisfied with the Catholic Church's stance on these types of issues have "voted with their feet" and no longer attend services actively.
Still, this distinction between conservative, churchgoing Catholics and liberal, non-churchgoing Catholics highlights one of the many dilemmas faced by the Catholic Church today: modernize in order to attract lapsed Catholics who are more liberal in orientation, or stick to more conservative positions that please the core Catholic constituency, which wants the church to remain distinct from the rest of society in terms of its positions on social issues.
Gas Prices
There is increasing evidence that the spike in oil prices is having a significant effect on the American consumer. I pointed out previously that energy prices have zoomed up to tie with unemployment as the most frequently mentioned issue when Americans are asked to name the most important economic problem facing the nation. Americans have also become much more negative about the direction of the economy in general, and I believe the high price of energy is one of the reasons why President Bush's job approval rating has fallen.
This weekend's Gallup Poll shows a record high level of personal concern about gas prices. Eleven times since 2000, Gallup has asked this question: "Have recent price increases in gasoline caused any financial hardship for you or your household?" The current affirmative percentage -- 58% -- is the highest we have recorded, a significant finding given that Gallup tends to ask this question only when there has been a rise in gas prices. (Only 15% of Americans say that the price of energy is causing them "severe" financial hardship; 43% say it is a "moderate" hardship.) The previous high point for this question was 49% last June.
In reaction to the increase in energy costs, 72% of Americans appear to be driving around looking for the gas station in their area with the cheapest gas (which, paradoxically, may cause Americans to use more gas than if they just pulled into the first station they see). A majority of Americans (57%) also indicate they are thinking about buying a more fuel-efficient vehicle next time they get a new car. Half say they are cutting back on the amount they drive, while 4 in 10 Americans report cutting back on their household spending because of higher gas prices.
Guns
The tragic school shooting in Red Lake, Minn., as well as the murderous rampage that took the lives of a judge and several other people in Atlanta, have focused attention on the issue of gun control. The issues involved are very complex. When there are high-visibility murders committed by perpetrators using guns, there is often increased activity among gun control activists, who argue that making guns less accessible will help prevent these crimes. (Of course, the gun used in the Atlanta shootings was allegedly taken from a deputy sheriff, who had the gun legally.)
On the other hand, those who oppose gun control also use gun-related crimes like these to underscore the argument that a heavily armed citizenry could prevent deaths from gun violence. Variants of this argument have been used to justify pilots arming themselves in the cockpit of the nation's airliners, and in recent weeks there has been some discussion of allowing judges to arm themselves.
Gallup's October 2004 update on guns shows about 4 in 10 Americans have a gun in their home. This is relatively unchanged from recent years, but down from previous decades when Gallup Polls showed up to half of Americans saying that they had a gun in the house.
A slight majority of Americans (54%) continue to favor making laws covering the sale of firearms more strict, although this percentage is somewhat lower than it was in 1993, when 70% wanted gun laws covering the sale of firearms to be stricter.
We haven't asked Americans directly if they think judges and school officials should be allowed to carry guns, but the data we do have suggest Americans are wary of the argument that arming people makes them safer. A plurality of Americans (46%) said last October that having a gun in the house makes that house a more dangerous place to be. Additionally, two-thirds said they would feel less safe in a public place such as a restaurant or movie theater if they knew concealed weapons were allowed.
Ukraine
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko is visiting Washington this week. Yushchenko and Ukraine have made news in recent months after Yushchenko won a hotly contested runoff election in that country (now being called the "Orange Revolution") and was allegedly poisoned by the opposition.
Gallup measured Americans' opinions of Ukraine for the first time this past February, and found that 67% have a favorable opinion of the country, while only 18% have an unfavorable opinion. Remarkably, only 15% of those interviewed said they don't have an opinion of the former Soviet republic.
Same-Sex Marriage
Voters in Kansas are at the polls Tuesday deciding whether Kansas will become the 14th state to pass a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage. Gallup doesn't have specific polling data on what Kansas voters think about the amendment, but most observers in that conservative Midwestern state believe the amendment will pass easily.
Nationwide, there appears to be growing support for an amendment to the U.S. Constitution defining marriage as only between a man and a woman. A recent Gallup Poll shows 57% of Americans favor such a constitutional amendment, up from 48% last July and the previous high point of 53% measured last February.
More generally, 68% of Americans now say marriages between homosexuals should not be recognized by law as valid. That's the highest opposition to same-sex marriage Gallup has measured across the nine times this question has been asked over the last five years.