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No Change in Public Opinion on Desirability of Tax Cuts

No Change in Public Opinion on Desirability of Tax Cuts

But expectations of achieving a tax cut have risen

by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted last week shows little change in the public's support for a tax cut over the past four months, although expectations that a cut will be enacted appear to have risen. The good news for President Bush is that this centerpiece of his legislative agenda appears to have substantial public support, with 56% of Americans saying they favor the tax cuts he has proposed and just 35% saying they are opposed. Furthermore, by a 54% to 39% margin, Americans approve of the way Bush is handling the issue of taxes.

The bad news for Bush is that his efforts to build support for his tax cut plan -- including a blitz of traveling in his first 100 days to promote it -- have failed to achieve that result. There has been little change in the public's support for a tax cut over the past four months. Further bad news is found in the character of public support for the tax cuts, which generally appears to be forsometax cuts -- not necessarily those proposed specifically by Bush -- and even suggests that, given the changes the public wants in his tax proposal, there may be more opposition than support for it.

Gallup first asked about Bush's tax cut proposals in early January, before the details were announced. At that time, the public expressed its support by a margin of 52% to 33%, and since then -- despite more details, Bush's 26-state campaign to push the plan, and the fact that both the House and the Senate have passed a version of tax cut legislation -- public opinion on the issue has remained fairly steady. Current results show four percentage points more support, but also two percentage points more opposition than in January.

Public Differs With Bush on the Details

Regardless of their expressed support for Bush's tax cut plan, Americans cite some major reservations about it. In a March Gallup poll, only 41% of Americans said they wanted the Senate to pass Bush's plan in the form in which the U.S. House approved it, while a majority said they wanted either to make major changes to the plan before it was passed (35%), or reject it altogether (17%). A separate question showed that 59% of Americans said they wanted the total amount of the tax cuts reduced. The Senate's bill, passed after the House version, did reduce the total cut by 400 billion dollars. Separately, 75% of Americans said they wanted to see the proposals adjusted so that more of the tax cuts would go to middle and lower income people. Both of these proposals have been strongly opposed by the president.

An analysis of the public's attitudes shows only 12% of Americans in firm agreement with Bush's approach -- saying they favor the Bush proposal as passed by the House and oppose both major changes to the plan: to reduce the size of the tax cuts and to adjust them in favor of middle and lower income people. At the same time, 86% objected to some major part of the Bush tax plan. This includes those who either disapprove of the House version in the first place or indicate that they want at least one of the two major changes made before it is passed. These results suggest that, while the public probably favors some form of tax cut legislation, public opinion on the specifics of the issue is far from settled.

One reason for the uncertain level of support for Bush's tax plan may be that the issue itself is apparently of low salience to the public, which assigns much higher priorities to other issues it wants the Bush administration to address. In the January poll, Americans ranked a cut in federal income taxes as the second lowest priority among 14 issues measured -- behind such issues as improving education, ensuring the long-term strength of Social Security and Medicare, keeping the federal budget balanced, improving conditions for minorities and the poor, and improving the quality of the environment. A similar result was found a month later, when a February poll showed that among six major issues, cutting taxes was rated the lowest priority for the Bush administration.

Expectations for Tax Cut Higher

The political dynamics in Washington suggest that the controversy over tax cuts is not about whether there will be cuts, but how extensive they will be and who will benefit. Given the consensus among both Republicans and Democrats in Congress that at least some type of tax cut will be enacted this year, it is not surprising that the current poll shows an increase in the number of people who share that expectation, although a substantial minority still is not convinced. Currently, 59% of Americans predict that the Bush administration will be able to cut taxes, while 36% disagree. Last January, shortly before Bush took office, Americans were somewhat more skeptical, as they divided about equally over whether the new administration would be able to cut taxes -- 49% said yes, 46% no.

Survey Methods

Current results are based on telephone interviews with 1,015 national adults, aged 18+, conducted April 20-22, 2001. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Based on what you have read or heard, do you favor or oppose the federal income tax cuts President Bush has proposed?

 

Favor

Oppose

No opinion

       
 

%

%

%

2001 Apr 20-22

56

35

9

       

2001 Mar 5-7

56

34

10

2001 Feb 19-21

53

30

17

2001 Feb 9-11

56

34

10

2001 Jan 5-7 ^

52

33

15

       

^

WORDING: Based on what you have read or heard, do you favor or oppose the federal income tax cuts George W. Bush has proposed?



Next I have some questions about the Bush administration which took office in January. Whether or not you support Bush, do you think the Bush administration will or will not be able to do each of the following? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

Cut your taxes

 

Will

Will not

No opinion

%

%

%

George W. Bush

2001 Apr 20-22

59

36

5

2001 Jan 15-16

49

46

5

Bill Clinton

1993 Feb 12-14 ^

15

82

3

1992 Nov 10-11 ^

20

74

6

George Bush, the elder

1989 Jan 24-25 ^

29

64

8

1988 Nov 14-Dec 4 ^

24

68

8

^

WORDING: Avoid raising your taxes



Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- [ROTATED]?

Taxes

 

 

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

       

2001 Apr 20-22

54%

39

7

       

2001 Mar 9-11

56%

35

9




Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/1570/Change-Public-Opinion-Desirability-Tax-Cuts.aspx
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