Last week's public opinion news was generally downbeat. Month-end
measures of consumer confidence showed a continuing decline in
attitudes about the economy. Most polls indicate that President
Bush's job approval rating is below 50%. There are no signs of
increased support for the president's signature domestic issue,
Social Security reform. Americans are worried about the cost of
gas. Perhaps most significantly, Gallup data suggest that the U.S.
military's prolonged involvement in Iraq is becoming a major public
concern; Iraq is the No. 1 issue Americans would talk to Bush about
if they had 15 minutes alone with him. Finally, legislators are not
exempt from the current negativity; public approval of the job
Congress is doing is as low as it has been in many years.
Bush
Still, just how bad are things? We received an e-mail from a reader last week who said: "Mr. Bush has been doing a terrible job, as well as Congress. What I want to know is why doesn't the media cover the dislike for this man?"
I'm not sure to which media the reader is being exposed, but I encounter many assumptions in news reports that Bush is stumbling in the eyes of the public. Headlines and on-air comments suggest to me that what economist John Kenneth Galbraith termed conventional wisdom has developed concerning Bush: he's in trouble. NPR commentator Juan Williams on Fox said over the weekend: "Well, maybe, you know, [Bush's] window of opportunity has passed, and maybe he's a lame duck." Monday's Washington Post carried this headline on its front page: "Doubts About Mandate for Bush, GOP." BusinessWeek calls Bush's second term "ailing."
But how much trouble is the president really in with regard to public opinion? With apologies to Charles Dickens, in my opinion it's neither the best of times nor the worst of times for Bush.
Our weekend poll pegs Bush's overall job approval rating at 48%, unchanged from a week previous. With the exception of one early February poll that had Bush's rating at 57%, 13 Gallup polls conducted since the beginning of the year have shown Bush's approval rating to be hovering in a narrow range between 45% and 52%. His average for the first quarter of his second term was 50.7%. Looking back in history a little further, we find that Bush's approval averages for the four quarters of 2004 were 50.9%, 47.8%, 50.1%, and 51.6%. His yearly average for 2004 was 50%.
Thus, we can say that Bush's job approval rating is now just slightly below his average for the past year and is actually just about where he was in the second quarter of last year.
Certainly Bush is not near the low points reached by his recent predecessors. Bill Clinton had job approval ratings in the 30% range in 1993 and 1994. George H.W. Bush had ratings as low as 29% in 1992. Ronald Reagan's ratings were also down in the 30% range at some points in his first term. All three of these presidents also had much higher ratings as well, underscoring the profound instability of job ratings. Richard Nixon started his second term in 1973 with solid ratings, but quickly tanked as Watergate revelations began to dominate the news. Reagan's ratings gained ground at the beginning of his second term, but in his final years in office they were routinely in the 40% range. Clinton's ratings rose in his second term -- paradoxically to many -- as the impeachment proceedings ground on in the House and Senate, and he finished with a second- term average that was considerably higher than his first.
The bottom line: Bush is not doing great at the moment, but he certainly is not in the middle of a dramatic freefall. His ratings are in the same general range as they have been for well over a year now.
I do think it's worth noting that Bush doesn't do as well when Americans are asked whether they approve of specific aspects of his job performance as he does when they are asked about his performance overall. Of particular concern to the Bush administration, no doubt, is that only 42% approve of how he's handling the situation in Iraq, and just 35% approve of how he's handling Social Security. Still fewer approve of how he's handling gas prices.
Main Issues of Concern
Americans are concerned about a number of issues at this point, but the three most important in my opinion are Iraq, the economy, and Social Security. Asked what they would talk to Bush about if they had 15 minutes with him alone, Iraq was the most commonly volunteered response, followed by concerns about Social Security, and then a wide variety of additional responses, many related to the economy. Iraq and the economy have been the two most frequently mentioned categories of responses to Gallup's "most important problem" question in recent months as well.
The Economy
Up to 60% of Americans now say that the economy is getting worse, while less than a third rate the economy as excellent or good. The Gallup Poll conducted over the weekend shows that 48% say that economic conditions in this country will be "poor" a year from now -- that's the most negative "looking ahead" number we have measured on this question in the numerous times it has been asked since 1997.
There are a number of reasons why the public is currently so dour on the economy -- including the price of gas, unemployment, too much debt, and so forth. But it's an open question whether negative perceptions of the economy are entirely a result of what Americans are personally experiencing, or are, in part, a reflection of media coverage. The weekend poll shows that 68% of Americans say that the economic news they have heard recently is mostly bad. It's hard to be upbeat in the face of that.
Social Security Reform
Bush has traveled the nation for months now expounding the need for Social Security reform. His campaign to draw attention to the issue may have in some ways worked against him. Americans seem to agree with the president that there are problems with Social Security and that they need to be fixed. But there is no agreement on a solution, perhaps leaving Americans in a more negative frame of mind about the Social Security system than they may have been in before Bush began his recent push.
I think it's important to keep in mind that there are, broadly speaking, two segments of the public when it comes to Social Security. Older Americans are primarily worried that something will happen to Social Security, and hence are quite reluctant to endorse efforts to reform it. Fifty-eight percent of retired Americans say that Social Security is a major source of income for them in their retirement years, making it by far their most dominant financial stream.
Younger Americans, on the other hand, are not at all likely to believe they will be depending on Social Security income when they retire. Hence, it follows that they are quite open to experimentation and reform because most feel that they don't have much to lose.
But from the most general perspective, it appears that nothing the president has proposed so far has struck a highly responsive chord with the public. For one thing, the weekend poll shows that the public comes down in favor of raising taxes to ensure Social Security's long-term future, as opposed to curbing benefits. But the president has avoided talking about raising taxes like the plague, so many Americans may feel the outcome of his efforts will be reduced benefits.
Gallup's question on private accounts -- the initial thrust of the president's reform efforts -- continue to show a majority opposed; support has inched up since early April, although it is no higher than it was in December of last year or March of this year.
What about the idea of curbing benefits for middle- and upper-income workers -- the idea that Bush promulgated in his press conference Thursday night? Only 38% of Americans favor the idea, at least in response to the way we described it to them in the survey: "As you may know, a proposal has been made that would allow workers to invest part of their Social Security taxes in the stock market or in bonds, while the rest of those taxes would remain in the Social Security system. Do you favor or oppose this proposal?"
Bush could probably engender greater support for his new idea if it were positioned as a plan that would cut benefits "for the wealthy." Gallup data have consistently shown that the public widely approves of any financially oriented proposals that involve disproportionate penalties for the rich.
Nuclear Power
Some observers have long advocated increased use of nuclear power as a way to solve energy problems, and Bush last week offered some moral support for the nuclear power industry, calling for construction of more nuclear power plants to increase domestic energy production.
Americans approve of the use of nuclear power in general: 54% somewhat or strongly favor its use while 43% either somewhat or strongly oppose it. There is continuing evidence of the NIMBY (Not in My Backyard) phenomenon when it comes to nuclear power, however. Asked about a nuclear power plant in their own local community, 63% of Americans oppose the idea, with only 36% favoring it.
Social Class
What social class are you in? Gallup recently asked Americans: "If you were asked to use one of these five names for your social class, which would you say you belong in -- upper class, upper-middle class, middle class, working class, (or) lower class?"
The results suggest that Americans are most comfortable putting themselves in the middle of the spectrum. Few respondents were willing to say they were in the upper class or the lower class. Almost half of those we interviewed (47%) chose the good old middle class, with 28% adopting the working-class label. Few (2%) chose the upper-class label, 14% said they were in the upper middle class, and 9% said they were members of the working class.