Flash Poll: Instant Reaction to Bush's Iraq Speech

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Those who watched President Bush's speech Tuesday night now hold a slightly more positive outlook on the war than they did before the address, even though the speech itself was not rated as positively as others Bush has given. Compared with their responses before the speech, people who tuned in are now more likely to say the United States and its allies are winning the Iraq war, that Bush has a clear plan for handling the war, and that the United States should keep troops in Iraq until the situation there gets better. The audience was apparently rather small and composed largely of Bush supporters -- 50% of those who tuned in were Republicans, a much higher proportion than exists in the general population but similar to what Gallup has found in polling following other Bush speeches.

Overall, the sample of 323 speech watchers rated Bush's speech in positive terms -- with 46% describing their reaction as "very positive" and an additional 28% "somewhat positive." That is well below average when compared with other major speeches Bush has given, which have averaged a 60% very positive rating in similar flash polls. That includes a 67% very positive rating for the famous "Mission Accomplished" speech he gave aboard an aircraft carrier in May 2003, in which he declared the major fighting phase of the Iraq war to be over.

What was your overall reaction to Bush's speech tonight -- [ROTATED: very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, (or) very negative]?

The speech was viewed by an audience composed disproportionately of Bush supporters, a pattern Gallup has observed in other major Bush speeches. Fifty percent of the viewing audience identified themselves as Republicans, 27% as independents, and 23% as Democrats.

While Bush may largely have been "preaching to the choir," the viewing audience did come out of the speech with a slightly more positive outlook on the war than it had before the speech.

Before the address, 44% of those who watched the speech said the United States and its allies were winning the war, 9% said the insurgents, and 44% saw it as a stalemate. Following Bush's speech, 54% of viewers said the United States was winning, 7% the insurgents, and 35% neither side. That represents a statistically significant change even with the small sample size of speech watchers. Most of the shift came from the group who said "neither side" was winning before the speech.

Who do you think is currently winning the war in Iraq -- the U.S. and its allies, the insurgents in Iraq, or neither side?

There was a slightly larger shift on the question of whether the United States should "keep a significant number of troops in Iraq until the situation there gets better, even if that takes many years," or "set a timetable for withdrawing troops from Iraq." Bush made it clear he would not set a timetable, and following the speech, 70% of viewers agreed with the idea that the United States should keep its troops there. Before the speech, 58% held that view, for a shift of 12 percentage points.

If you had to choose, which do you think is better for the U.S. -- [ROTATED: to keep a significant number of troops in Iraq until the situation there gets better, even if that takes many years, (or) to set a timetable for removing troops from Iraq and to stick to that timetable regardless of what is going on in Iraq at the time]?

There was also a slight increase in the percentage of speech watchers who believe Bush has a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq -- 63% after the speech, compared with 56% before. The partisan nature of the speech audience is underscored when it is taken into account that just 37% of all Americans said Bush had a clear plan for handling Iraq in this past weekend's CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.

Do you think George W. Bush does -- or does not -- have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq?

A flash poll such as this provides an immediate reaction to Bush's speech, measuring opinion that is unfiltered by media reports and commentary. However, in the real world, those factors play a crucial role in shaping opinion, so the ultimate effect of the speech on Americans' views of the war cannot be immediately known.

Bush's message will now reach a broader audience through newspapers, radio, television, and the Internet in the coming days. The results of Tuesday's instant-reaction poll suggest the speech was not widely viewed -- nearly half of Americans who indicated to Gallup before the speech that they intended to watch it said they did not do so when successfully re-contacted by Gallup in the first half-hour following the speech's conclusion. And as mentioned before, the speech audience was more pro-Bush in its orientation than the larger populace.

Thus, the full impact of the address is likely to be less dramatic on the population at large than it apparently was on the speech watchers, though ultimately the effect on Americans overall will emerge in the coming days, dependent to a great degree on the news media's spin.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with 323 adults, aged 18 and older, who watched President Bush's address, conducted June 28, 2005. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±6 percentage points.

Survey respondents were first interviewed as part of random national adult samples by Gallup June 24-27, 2005, at which time they indicated they planned to watch the president's speech and were willing to be re-interviewed by Gallup after the speech. Respondents' pre- and post-speech answers are shown for questions that were asked on both surveys.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.