London Bombings
The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll -- conducted over the weekend in the aftermath of the terrorist bombings in London -- shows a slight uptick in President George W. Bush's job approval rating. Americans have become more concerned about the possibility of new terrorist attacks in the United States, but have not changed their views on who is winning the war on terrorism. Other key indicators -- including satisfaction with the way things are going in the United States and perceptions of the U.S. economy -- have remained steady.
It is not unexpected to find a rally effect in presidential job approval when an event occurs that potentially threatens the United States. The London bombings did not occur in the United States, but given the close relationship between the two countries, it is not surprising to find that they apparently had a modest rally effect on presidential job approval. Bush job approval had been in the 45% to 46% range in the last two polls conducted before the bombings; over the weekend, it was 49%. Disapproval of the way Bush is handling his job is at 48%.
Gallup's weekend survey contained several questions designed to measure the effect the London bombings had on Americans' views on terrorism. It is clear that Americans have become more worried about the possibility of new terrorist attacks in the United States. Seventeen percent now say terrorism is the most important problem facing the country -- up from 8% last month, but of course much lower than was measured in the fall of 2001 after the Sept. 11 attacks.
Additionally, 55% of Americans say that it is somewhat or very likely that there will be further acts of terrorism in the United States over the next several weeks -- up 20 percentage points since mid-June. This is the highest level of concern over terrorism since May 2003, just a month or two after the initiation of the Iraq war.
At the same time, two other measures of public opinion on the war on terrorism have not changed. Americans are no more likely than they were before the attacks to believe the terrorists are winning the war against terrorism. The public's confidence in the Bush administration to protect the United States against future acts of terrorism hasn't changed either.
These data, coupled with an analysis of the findings from a one-night poll conducted on Thursday evening on the day of the bombings, suggest that the London attacks created significantly heightened levels of concern among Americans, but did not change their basic perceptions of the global war on terrorism.
Iraq
Bush has repeatedly emphasized the connection between the war on terrorism and the U.S.-led incursion into Iraq, arguing that deposing Saddam Hussein and installing a democratic government will help lower the probability of terrorist acts around the world in the future.
Americans do not believe this outcome has come about yet. The percentage of Americans who say the war with Iraq has made the United States less safe from terrorism has jumped from 39% in late June to 54% over the weekend. (Out of 11 separate times the question has been asked, the only other time that a majority has felt that the Iraq war made the United States less safe from terrorism was in June 2004.) Perhaps not surprisingly, it appears the London bombings have convinced some Americans that the Iraqi situation is causing, rather than preventing, acts of terrorism.
It thus may be surprising to some that Bush job approval went up, rather than down. Americans have become more concerned about terrorism and the possibility of a terrorist attack in the United States, and they are more convinced that the war in Iraq has increased, rather than decreased, the probability of terrorism in this country. Yet, as noted, Bush job approval has gone up (slightly) and there has been no drop in the percentage of Americans who have confidence in the Bush administration's ability to prevent terrorist acts.
I believe the classic rally effect is the most important factor in the uptick in Bush approval at this point in time, overwhelming other considerations. I wouldn't be surprised, however, if Bush approval drops back down in future Gallup Polls after the London bombings move off the front page of the nation's newspapers.
On Monday, the Washington Post reported the existence of a secret British memo laying out plans for the United States and Britain to withdraw the majority of their troops from Iraq by the middle of 2006. According to the Post, the memo was written by British Defense Secretary John Reid for Prime Minister Tony Blair.
If the planning outlined in the memo in fact reflects the thinking of U.S. leaders, it would be consistent with American public opinion. A June 6-8 Gallup Poll shows almost 6 in 10 Americans want the United States to withdraw some or all of its troops from Iraq.
The Economy
On the economic front, the Dow Jones average was up last week, and indications this week are that the lighter-than-expected damage from Hurricane Dennis may keep the Dow in positive territory this week as well. There was more good news last week -- the unemployment rate was reported at 5.0%, the lowest since September 2001, and the U.S. Department of Commerce reported an increase in orders for manufacturing goods.
But as far as the public's perceptions of the economy are concerned, there just hasn't been much change at all. The public's view of the U.S. economy remains about where it has been -- in negative territory. This weekend's Gallup Poll marks the eighth consecutive survey in which a majority of Americans have said that the U.S. economy is getting worse, rather than better.
Americans' views about whether now is a good time to find a quality job did not change this month -- 58% of all Americans and 57% of employed Americans say now is not a good time to find a quality job.
Supreme Court
In the weeks ahead, there will be increasing attention focused on the Supreme Court vacancy and the battles that will ensue as Bush nominates a replacement for Sandra Day O'Connor, and perhaps for Chief Justice William Rehnquist. More than half (57%) of Americans tell Gallup the nomination of a new justice will matter a great deal to them.
Much of the news coverage of the nomination process has focused on pressure from the right to move the court toward a more conservative, constructionist composition. But, Gallup Poll data show no difference between Democrats and Republicans or between liberals and conservatives in the perceived importance of the choice of a new justice. People at both ends of the spectrum appear equally concerned.
There is one demographic difference that I think is significant. Americans who attend church weekly are more likely than those who attend church less frequently to say the choice of a new Supreme Court justice matters to them, suggesting that the views of highly religious Americans will be a major factor in the coming battles over the confirmation of Bush's nominee.
On the issue of Roe v. Wade, Americans want a new justice to vote to uphold the landmark decision rather than to overturn it, by more than a 2-to-1 margin. Even Republicans break even on this question. Among frequent churchgoers, the margin of those wanting Roe overturned versus those wanting it upheld is 49% versus 45%, respectively.
One last point: Americans are not at all sanguine that the nomination process will proceed peacefully. More than 6 in 10 (63%) say Bush will appoint someone who will let his or her religious views inappropriately influence legal decisions, while an even higher percentage (86%) believe the Democrats in the Senate will attempt to block Bush's nominee for inappropriate political reasons.
Immigration
New data show little change over the last three years in American opinion on whether immigration should be increased, decreased, or left about the same. About half (46%) of Americans say immigration should be decreased, a third (34%) say it should be left at its current level, and relatively few (16%) say it should be increased.
Historically, these perceptions have gone up and down based on the state of the economy. In the mid-1990s, when perceptions of the economy were relatively negative, about two-thirds of Americans said immigration should be decreased. As the economy improved, the "decrease" percentage dropped to as low as 41% in June 2001. Then came the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and an apparent fear of outsiders in the United States took hold, pushing the "decrease" percentage as high as 58% in October 2001.
Gallup estimates that about half of Hispanics in America were not born in this country, and are therefore immigrants themselves. Still, Hispanics do not differ dramatically from other Americans in their views on immigration. Four in 10 Hispanics (41%) say immigration should be kept at its present level, about one-fifth (21%) say it should be increased, and about a third (32%) say it should be decreased.
Seven in 10 Americans believe that it should not be made easier for illegal immigrants to gain U.S. citizenship. There is an enormous difference in response to this question by ethnicity, however, with 70% of Hispanics saying that it should be made easier for illegals to become citizens, while 8 in 10 non-Hispanic whites say it should not.
Space Shuttle
The space shuttle Discovery is scheduled to be launched this Wednesday -- the first such launch since the tragic loss of the shuttle Columbia in early 2003.
Americans express little trepidation about the shuttle program starting up again. Nearly three-quarters say the manned space shuttle program should be continued. Interestingly, this percentage is slightly lower than what was measured in polls taken immediately after the two shuttle disasters in March 1986 and February 2003.
Along these same lines, the public's confidence in NASA to prevent future space shuttle accidents is not quite as high now as it was in the polls taken just after the two previous accidents. Just 20% of Americans have a great deal of confidence in NASA's ability to prevent accidents, although 56% have a fair amount of confidence.
In January 2004, Bush announced that a manned mission to Mars is a future goal for space exploration, but has not pushed the idea publicly since. His lack of insistence is OK with Americans, only 40% of whom would favor the United States setting aside money for a project to land an astronaut on the Mars.