Election 2008: Republican Candidates Fare Better in Early Trial Heats

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Even though the next presidential election is more than three years away, those who might pursue the office are already testing the waters in New Hampshire, in Iowa, and at other gatherings where party power brokers are present. The latest Gallup Poll assessed the public's overall views of four possible contenders for the office and tested how they would fare today in a hypothetical election.

A majority of Americans say they have favorable views of Republican and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. On the other hand, more Americans view Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., unfavorably than favorably, and his ratings have grown more negative since his loss to George W. Bush in last fall's presidential election. The trial heat matchups show the two possible Republican candidates holding an edge over the two Democratic candidates among registered voters.

Favorable Ratings of Contenders

The July 25-28 Gallup Poll asked Americans to rate four politicians whom many currently consider the early front-runners in the next presidential election. This is based in part on their relatively high public profiles, on the belief that they are thought to be seriously considering presidential runs in 2008, and also on early polling by Gallup and other organizations on Republicans' and Democrats' preferences for their respective parties' nominees in the next election.

Of the four, Giuliani is rated most positively, with 64% of Americans saying they have a favorable opinion of him and only 19% with an unfavorable opinion. Clinton (53%) and McCain (51%) have similar favorable ratings, although Clinton is the much better-known figure (only 4% do not have an opinion of her, compared with 27% for McCain). Clinton's unfavorable ratings (43%) are nearly twice as high as McCain's (22%).

Kerry is the only candidate of the four with higher unfavorables (48%) than favorables (42%). That is a significant shift from last fall, when Kerry averaged a 52% favorable rating and a 44% unfavorable rating in five October Gallup Polls leading up to the presidential election. At least a majority of Americans had viewed Kerry favorably following his surprise victory in the Iowa caucuses and continuing through Gallup's final pre-election poll.

Trial Heat Matchups

The poll suggests the Republican candidates have an edge at this point, with at least a slight lead in all four trial heats. Clinton appears to be the stronger of the two Democratic candidates, while the two Republican candidates fare similarly against both Democrats.

By a 50% to 45% margin, registered voters say they would vote for McCain over Clinton. Giuliani enjoys the same edge over Clinton.

The Republicans do even better when matched up against Kerry; both lead the Massachusetts senator by 54% to 41% margins among registered voters.

In any election, there are at least four ways one can achieve victory.

• by winning a greater share of the independent vote
• by maintaining higher party loyalty than one's opponent does
• by winning a greater proportion of votes from those who normally support the other party
• by getting more of one's supporters to turn out to vote

These are certainly not mutually exclusive possibilities -- for example, it is possible that a candidate could get a higher share of the independent vote but lose because the other candidate's supporters had higher turnout. In most elections, most or all of the factors would probably work in the same candidate's favor. The late July poll allows for a test of the first three possibilities, and the analysis shows that the Republican candidates currently have an edge on all three.

First, at least half of independent registered voters prefer the Republican candidates regardless of the matchup, while support for the Democratic candidates among this group ranges between 35% and 41% in the four trial heats.

Second, party loyalty is higher among Republican registered voters than among Democratic registered voters. Specifically, 87% of Republican registered voters say they would vote for Giuliani and for McCain if each were running against Clinton, while Democratic registered voters' support for Clinton in both matchups is slightly lower, at 80%. At least 9 in 10 Republican registered voters say they would support McCain or Giuliani when matched up with Kerry, while only about three in four Democrats indicate they would support Kerry.

Finally, related to the above, the Republican candidates are gaining a greater share of the Democratic vote than the Democratic candidates are gaining of the Republican vote. Close to one in five Democrats say they would support McCain or Giuliani versus Clinton, while only 11%-12% of Republicans are supporting Clinton in either matchup. An even higher proportion of Democrats would support McCain or Giuliani versus Kerry.

These data are not likely to predict what will actually happen in 2008. Indeed, the issues that will define the 2008 election -- let alone the party's choice of candidates -- are not even known. But the data do give a sense of the candidates' basic appeal at this time, and the contenders likely will be relying on poll data such as these as one factor in helping to determine whether or not they will formally seek the presidency.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,010 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 25-28, 2005. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For results for the sample of 922 registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.

19. Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. First, ... . How about ... [ITEM A READ, THEN ITEMS B-E ROTATED, THEN ITEM F READ]?

B. John Kerry

C. Hillary Rodham Clinton

D. John McCain

E. Rudy Giuliani

Next, we'd like you to think about the next election for president, to be held in November 2008.

Q.20/20A-Q.23/23A ROTATED IN PAIRS

20. If New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Arizona Senator John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: Hillary Clinton, the Democrat (or) John McCain, the Republican]?

20A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Clinton, the Democrat (or) McCain, the Republican]?

21. If New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: Hillary Clinton, the Democrat (or) Rudy Giuliani, the Republican]?

21A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Clinton, the Democrat (or) Giuliani, the Republican]?

22. If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and Arizona Senator John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: John Kerry, the Democrat (or) John McCain, the Republican]?

22A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat (or) McCain, the Republican]?

23. If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: John Kerry, the Democrat (or) Rudy Giuliani, the Republican]?

23A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat (or) Giuliani, the Republican]?