Americans Sympathize With Protesting Mom

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Most Americans sympathize with Cindy Sheehan, the grieving mother who led an anti-war protest outside President George W. Bush's Texas ranch for most of August. A majority of Americans also say Bush should meet with her. Still, less than half of Americans agree with the actions Sheehan has taken in her opposition to the Iraq war. And, despite her efforts to draw public attention to anti-war arguments, Sheehan's tactics have not appeared to increase public opposition to the Iraq war.

Americans supported the Iraq war as it began in March 2003, but attitudes began to sour significantly about a year ago, and have remained characteristically negative through most of this summer. Today, more than half of Americans disapprove of the way Bush is handling Iraq, think the original decision to go to war was a mistake, and favor at least partial troop withdrawal from Iraq.

• Only 40% of Americans approve, while 59% disapprove of the way Bush is handling Iraq -- nearly identical to results in late June, when 40% approved and 58% disapproved.
  
  
• Fifty-three percent of Americans think going to war in Iraq was a mistake, similar to the 54% who said this in early August.
  
  
• Fifty-three percent of Americans favor a reduction of U.S. troops in Iraq, similar to the 56% in August. Today's percentage includes 26% who prefer withdrawing all troops, and 27% who favor withdrawing some troops.
  
  
• Although Sheehan and her supporters have called for an immediate withdrawal of all U.S. troops, the percentage of Americans with this view has actually fallen since early August, from 33% to 26%, while the percentage in favor of sending more troops has increased slightly.

Sheehan's Plea for Meeting Gets Mixed Reaction

Sheehan's 24-year-old son was killed in Iraq in April, and Sheehan demanded that Bush defend his administration's rationale for going to war in Iraq in a face-to-face meeting with her in which she can also air her grievances.

Although Bush staff members have met with Sheehan, the president's refusal to meet with her during this episode (he already met with her once) risks looking callous, as the majority of Americans -- 58% -- say Bush should meet with her; only 41% say he should not.

Naturally, most Americans (74%) who think the war was a mistake think Bush should meet with Sheehan, while most war supporters (59%) do not think he should.

Attitudes on this question follow a similar pattern by political affiliation -- although relative to some other issues, these attitudes are not strongly partisan. Nearly three-quarters of Democrats (72%) and 63% of independents think Bush should meet with Sheehan, while the majority of Republicans (58%) think he should not.

Sheehan clearly has Americans' sympathy for the loss of her son. Overall, 91% of Americans say they sympathize with her over this. But this sympathy does not guarantee support for her political activism. Only 42% of Americans both sympathize with her and agree with her actions against the war. About half of Americans sympathize with her but disagree with her actions (49%). Another 6% do not have much sympathy for her because of her actions.

Protest Having Limited Impact on Bush, Americans

Bush's refusal to meet with Sheehan has not appeared to hurt him politically. Not only has his approval rating for his handling of Iraq remained stable, but a new measure finds that Americans, by a 2-to-1 margin, believe Bush sincerely cares about the families of U.S. soldiers killed in Iraq.

Meanwhile, Sheehan's protest is doing little to inspire fellow resisters to become active against the Iraq war. Only 13% of Americans (including 21% of those saying the Iraq war was a mistake) say that the events surrounding the Sheehan news story have made them more likely to get involved in anti-war activities. A nearly equal percentage -- 12% of Americans -- say it has made them more likely to get involved in pro-war activities.

Americans Doubt Iraq Will Be Stabilized

Although Bush has thus far declined to meet with Sheehan for a second time (they met once this spring at an event for the parents of fallen soldiers), he articulated his rationale for staying the course in Iraq in a V-J Day commemoration speech on Tuesday.

In that speech, Bush argued that America's continued military involvement in Iraq is needed to prevent terrorists and insurgents from taking control of that country -- which would include Iraq's oil fields as well as the government. Bush also expressed confidence that the war will result in a free and democratic Iraq.

Americans marginally agree with Bush that a democratic government will be established in Iraq and that the Iraqi government will be friendly to the United States. Slightly more than half the public says it is likely these things will happen in the long run, and close to half, if not the majority, says these will happen within the next year.

At the same time, Americans remain pessimistic about the military challenges that Iraq presents. Less than half think peace and security will be established in Iraq, either next year (30%) or even in the long run (43%). The majority says this is unlikely.

Additionally, most Americans predict that, over the next year, U.S. military casualties will continue to mount at the same rate or even a higher rate than now. Forty-two percent of Americans consider this very likely and another 40% say somewhat likely. Only 16% of Americans think it is unlikely.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,007 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 28-30, 2005. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the 507 national adults in the Form A half-sample and 500 national adults in the Form B half-sample, the maximum margins of sampling error are ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

C. The situation in Iraq

8. Just your best guess, do you think George W. Bush does -- or does not -- sincerely care about the families of U.S. soldiers killed in Iraq?

36. In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?

37. Which comes closest to your view about what the U.S. should now do about the number of U.S. troops in Iraq -- [ROTATED: the U.S. should send more troops to Iraq, the U.S. should keep the number of troops as it is now, the U.S. should withdraw some troops from Iraq, (or) the U.S. should withdraw all of its troops from Iraq]?

38. How much longer do you think the U.S. should have a significant number of troops in Iraq -- less than a year, one to two years, three to five years, six to ten years, or longer than ten years?

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.37-38)

39. Please tell me whether you think each of the following is very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely to happen in Iraq in the next YEAR. [ITEMS A-C ROTATED, ITEM D READ LAST]

BASED ON 507 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

A. Peace and internal security will be established

B. A democratic form of government will be established

C. The Iraqi government will be friendly to the United States

D. U.S. military casualties in Iraq will continue at the same rate or a higher rate than now

40. Please tell me whether you think each of the following is very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely to happen in Iraq in the long run. [RANDOM ORDER]

BASED ON 500 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

A. Peace and internal security will be established

B. A democratic form of government will be established

C. The Iraqi government will be friendly to the United States

41. How closely have you been following the news reports about Cindy Sheehan, the mother of an American soldier killed in Iraq, who is protesting the war outside George W. Bush's Texas ranch -- very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not at all?