Dick Cheney
There have been no new polls on Dick Cheney that I'm aware of, since the Armstrong Ranch shooting incident in south Texas. I think it's a reasonable hypothesis that Cheney's ratings will fall as a result of the incident and resulting press furor, but there is at least a slim possibility that Cheney's ratings might gain in a sort of domestic rally effect. Cheney's apology in his interview with Fox News Channel's Brit Hume on Wednesday may tilt the balance of opinion into a less negative frame.
There is also the possibility that Cheney's ratings won't move at all. That hypothesis is bolstered by a look at what's happened to Bush's ratings over the last several months -- they've hardly budged, regardless of all the events in the real world. It may be that opinions about Cheney (and George W. Bush) are so hardened and/or fixed at this point that it's going to take a lot of move them significantly.
Joe Carroll's recent blog shows that Cheney's ratings have in general tracked those of his boss, -except in early 2002 when Bush's ratings soared into the 80% range while Cheney's stayed in the 60s. Our last job approval rating on Cheney was measured in January at 41% (while Bush's was 43%). In other words, Cheney -- to this point in time -- has appeared no more nor no less popular than has the president.
This is an important point. In an article in Friday's Wall Street Journal ("Deconstructing Cheney's Role"), Jackie Calmes and Greg Hitt seem to imply that Cheney's image has suffered as a result of something specific to Cheney himself. But we see no evidence that Cheney has an image that is independent of the Bush administration in general -- at least prior to the shooting incident.
We will also be monitoring attitudes toward the news media -- which have been none too positive in recent years. Almost every high-intensity news event results in a post-mortem of sorts in which media coverage of that event is scrutinized. Certainly, Cheney supporters are arguing that the news media overreacted in their coverage of the way Cheney handled the aftermath of the shooting incident; it remains to be seen whether larger numbers of Americans share these views.
A lot has been made out of the fact that it was essentially a Republican hunting party at the ranch last weekend. Do Republicans hunt more than Democrats? There is suggestive evidence from recent Gallup Polls that they do. Carroll's analysis shows that Republicans are significantly more likely than Democrats to own guns. And, Republicans who own guns are more likely to say they use their guns for hunting than are Democrats who own guns. That doesn't prove that Republicans hunt more than Democrats; it may be that Democrats borrow weapons to go hunting. But it certainly suggests that gun ownership and hunting both skew in the Republican direction.
Contradictory Attitudes About Cartoons
Do Americans hold contradictory attitudes in reference to the cartoons depicting Muhammad in an unflattering light and that have spawned so much violence across the world? It might seem that way. A majority of Americans in our recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll say the European newspapers acted irresponsibly in publishing the cartoons. At the same time, a majority of Americans believe that the controversy that ensued reflects more of an Islamic intolerance for freedom of speech than it does a Western insensitivity to religious values.
In short, Americans seem to be saying that it was wrong to publish the cartoons that so inflamed some Muslims, but that the inflamed reaction in and of itself was misguided. It appears Americans believe there is blame to be spread around on all sides.