Three Years of War Have Eroded Public Support

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- On the eve of the third anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, the American public is far different from the one in March 2003 that expressed widespread support and confidence in the Bush administration's quest to overthrow Saddam Hussein.

When the war began, most Americans thought the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, that the United States would certainly win, and that the war was morally justified. A majority or plurality of Americans also believed that the Iraq war was part of the larger war on terrorism, and that Saddam Hussein was personally involved in the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States.

Today those views have taken a decided turn in the opposite direction. Americans continue to believe that the people of Iraq are better off now and say they will be better off in the future as a result of the war. But a clear majority of Americans believe that civil war and chaos will win out over stability in Iraq. A majority also believes that all U.S. troops should be withdrawn within a year, including one in five who want all troops withdrawn immediately.

These are some of the findings from the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted March 10-12, designed to record how the public's views about the Iraq war have changed since the war began.

• The poll shows that 60% of Americans today say the war is not worth it, while in March 2003, just after the invasion of Iraq began, only 29% said it was not worth it to go to war.
  
  
• At the time, 69% of Americans said the United States would "certainly" win; today just 22% have that level of confidence. Also, at the time the war was launched, just 4% of the public thought it either unlikely the United States would win, or certain it would not win; today 41% are that pessimistic.
  
  
• By 73% to 24%, Americans said the war was morally justified when it began; today the public is divided, with 47% saying it is morally justified and 50% saying it is not.
  
  
• Part of the Bush administration's justification for going to war was that such an undertaking would be part of the wider war on terrorism. Americans were divided on this issue in January 2003, with 50% agreeing and 48% disagreeing with the Bush administration. By August 2003, the public agreed by a larger margin, 57% to 41%. Today Americans reject the link between the war in Iraq and the wider war on terrorism by 53% to 44%.
  
  
• Shortly before the war began, 51% of Americans thought the war to overthrow Saddam Hussein targeted a leader who had personally been involved in the 9/11 terrorist attacks, while 41% disagreed. Today, by 54% to 39%, Americans say the Iraqi leader was not personally involved in the attacks.
  
  
• When no weapons of mass destruction were found in Iraq, a May/June 2003 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed most Americans rejected the charge that the Bush administration deliberately misled the public about the matter, by 67% to 31%. Today, a slight majority, 51% to 46%, believes the Bush administration did deliberately mislead the public.
  
  
• Though no weapons of mass destruction were found in Iraq after the invasion, today 57% of Americans express some degree of certainty that such weapons or programs to develop them were in Iraq just before the fighting began -- 29% feel definite about it, and another 28% think the weapons were there, though they have some doubt. In January 2003, two months before the war started, 86% of Americans thought such weapons might be there, including 41% who felt they definitely were there.
  
  
• Whatever change in opinion about the war that has occurred in the past three years, most Americans continue to believe that at least the Iraqi people are better off today than they were before the war. In May 2004, 72% of the public expressed that view, compared with 67% in the current poll.
  
  
• After three years of fighting by U.S. troops, Americans forecast a decidedly pessimistic future for Iraq -- 55% think it is more likely the situation there will degenerate into chaos and civil war, while just 40% expect the Iraqis to establish a stable government.
  
  
• This pessimism no doubt gives rise to the majority view that U.S. troops should be withdrawn from Iraq within a year -- 54% want either immediate withdrawal (19%), or withdrawal by March 2007 (35%). Another 39% say U.S. troops should remain as long as necessary to turn control over to the Iraqis. Four percent would send more troops to fight.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,001 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 10-12, 2006. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

9. All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not?

BASED ON 483 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

13. Which comes closest to your view about the war with Iraq -- [ROTATED: you are certain that the U.S. will win, you think it is likely that the U.S. will win, but you are not certain, you think it is unlikely that the U.S. will win, but you are not certain, (or) you are certain that the U.S. will NOT win]?

14. Here are four different plans the U.S. could follow in dealing with the war in Iraq. Which ONE do you prefer -- [ROTATED: withdraw all troops from Iraq immediately, withdraw all troops by March 2007 -- that is, in 12 months' time, withdraw troops, but take as many years to do this as are needed to turn control over to the Iraqis, (or) send more troops to Iraq]?

Trend for Comparison: The Vietnam War -- Here are four different plans the U.S. could follow in dealing with the war in Vietnam. Which ONE do you prefer? Plan A: Withdraw all troops from Vietnam immediately; Plan B: Withdraw all troops by July 1971 -- that is, in 12 months' time; Plan C: Withdraw troops but take as many years to do this as are needed to turn the war over to the South Vietnamese; or Plan D: Send more troops to Vietnam and step up the fighting?

15. Which do you think is more likely to happen in Iraq -- [ROTATED: the situation will turn into chaos and civil war, (or) the Iraqi people will be able to establish a stable government]?

17. Do you think the United States' action in Iraq is morally justified, or not?

Trend for Comparison: Los Angeles Times Poll: Do you think the United States' action in the Mideast is morally justified, or not?

Q.18-19 SPLIT SAMPLED

18. Do you think Saddam Hussein was personally involved in the September 11th terrorist attacks, or not?

BASED ON 518 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

19. Do you consider the war in Iraq to be part of the war on terrorism which began on September 11, 2001, or do you consider it to be an entirely separate military action?

BASED ON 483 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

Trend for Comparison: If the United States goes to war with Iraq, would you consider that to be part of the war on terrorism which began on September 11th, or would you consider it to be an entirely separate military action?

Q.20-21 SPLIT SAMPLED

20. Do you think the Bush administration deliberately misled the American public about whether Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, or not?

BASED ON 518 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

21. Which of the following statements best describes your view of whether Iraq had weapons of mass destruction or programs to develop them just before the war began -- [ROTATED: you are certain that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, you think that Iraq had these weapons but you have some doubt, you think that Iraq might have had these weapons but you have a lot of doubt, (or) you are certain that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction]?

BASED ON 483 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

Q.24-25 SPLIT SAMPLED

24. In your opinion, is Iraq -- [ROTATED: much better off, somewhat better off, somewhat worse off, (or) much worse off] -- than before the U.S. and British invasion?

BASED ON 518 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

25. In your opinion, in the long run, will Iraq be -- [ROTATED: much better off, somewhat better off, somewhat worse off, (or) much worse off] -- than before the U.S. and British invasion?

BASED ON 483 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B