Democrats Gain Edge in Party Identification During Last Year

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans are about as likely to identify as Republicans as they are Democrats according to a review of recent Gallup polls. However, once the leanings of independents are taken into account, the Democrats gain an advantage. Democrats have been on par with, or ahead of, Republicans in party identification since the second quarter of 2005. Since that time, the percentage of Americans identifying as Democrats has held steady, but fewer have identified with the Republican Party and more as independents.

In the eight national polls Gallup conducted in the first quarter of 2006, an average of 33% of Americans identified as Democrats, while 32% identified as Republicans and 34% as independents. More Americans have identified as Democrats than Republicans in each of the last four quarters, although in each case the advantage was small -- from less than one percentage point to three points.

The quarterly calculations involve very large sample sizes (approximately 8,000 for the first quarter of 2006), so even small changes from quarter to quarter are likely to be statistically significant. The small but meaningful change observed during recent quarters is due to a gain in independent identification and a decline in Republican identification. Democratic identification has been remarkably consistent at roughly 33% since the beginning of last year. Republican identification fell from 35% in the first quarter of 2005 to roughly 32% since that time. Independent identification has increased from 31% to 34% during the same period.

Part of the increase in independent identification is most likely due to the passing of the 2004 election. Past Gallup polling shows that the percentage of independents typically declines in a presidential election year -- when partisan politics is at its most intense -- and then usually increases in the year following the election.

Since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Republicans have been more likely than Democrats to hold an edge in party identification. In the 18 quarters since 9/11, Republicans have had an edge in 12 of them. This is a change from the past, as Democrats have traditionally held an edge in national partisanship in Gallup polls dating back to the 1940s except for a brief period of time in 1991 around the Persian Gulf War and late 1994 and 1995 after Republicans took control of Congress.

Even though basic overall party identification is essentially even, the Democrats can be said to have an advantage because more independents say they lean to the Democratic Party than to the Republican Party. This is significant because independents who lean to a political party tend to share similar attitudes and voting patterns with those who identify with the party. That could be one reason why Democrats have a lead in Gallup's generic congressional ballot this year.

In the most recent quarter, 49% of Americans identify as Democrats or lean to the Democratic Party, and 42% identify as Republicans or lean to the Republican Party. Democrats have held that same 49% to 42% advantage during each of the last three quarters. In the second quarter of 2005, Democrats had a slightly smaller 47% to 43% edge. At the beginning of 2005, the parties were at even strength on this measure.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with randomly selected national samples of approximately 1,000 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan.-March, 2006. For results based on these combined samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±1 percentage point. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.