Americans Support Guest Worker Proposals That Include Restrictions

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The pitched debate about illegal immigration among policy makers and pundits in recent weeks has underscored the complicated nature of the considerations and values involved in this complex issue. Although there seems to be agreement about some issues, such as better border enforcement, the most fractious debate focuses on the issue of what to do about illegal immigrants already in the United States.

A review of survey research on this topic shows that the American public appears to be just as conflicted as the politicians they elect to represent them. A wide variety of questions have been asked in surveys in recent months about the issue of what to do with illegal immigrants already in the United States. An analysis of the responses suggests that the American people taken as a whole are far from having made up their minds on the issue.

Each of the survey questions reviewed offers respondents a different explanation or description of a proposal for dealing with illegal immigrants. The results show that these questions elicit widely varying response patterns. While some responses show that a solid majority of Americans reject the idea of making it easier for illegal immigrants to stay in this country, others stress specific conditions under which illegal immigrants might be allowed to stay find solid majority support. This suggests that the public's mind is far from being made up on this issue, and that Americans are amenable to arguments and listen carefully to the details of various proposals.

On balance, the review suggests that the American public, although worried about illegal immigration, appears willing to accept some sort of guest worker program as long as there are explicit limitations and conditions.

Gallup's analysis involved a review of available national survey data in which respondents were asked about proposals to deal with illegal immigrants living in the country. The review found 13 separate questions that a variety of research firms asked at least once during the last year. (In some instances the questions were asked more than once as part of a trend sequence.)

This table presents each of these questions, rank-ordered by the percent favoring the proposal as outlined in the specific question wording.

It is immediately apparent from a review of these results that there are significantly different reactions on the part of the American public to these unique proposals. Each proposal is worded differently and highlights different actions that can be taken in regard to illegal immigrants. Perhaps not surprisingly, the public responds accordingly. The wide swing of response patterns suggests that the public is open to persuasion on the issue.

It is impossible to determine with precision the impact of various policy specifics as included in these questions without using a strict experimental design procedure in which random samples of the general public receive question wordings that vary in specified ways. Also, the different survey questions were asked at different times, confounding interpretation since there may have been some changes in attitudes as the immigration issue has moved (at least briefly) to the forefront of the media news agenda.

Still, it is worthwhile to examine the reactions generated by this wide variety of questions and draw at least tentative conclusions:

1. Support ranges from a low of just 28% who support the generic idea of making it easier "for illegal immigrants to become citizens of the United States," to 79% who favor allowing illegal immigrants "already working in the United States to register as guest workers for a fixed period of time, so the government could keep track of them." Also, 78% favor allowing illegal immigrants already in the United States to "earn U.S. citizenship if they learn to speak English, have a job, and pay taxes."

It appears that proposals that are quite specific in their details generate higher levels of support. The four proposals that generate more than 70% of support include the following descriptive phrases: "fixed period of time," "government could keep track of them," "if they learn to speak English, have a job, and pay taxes," "pay a fine," "pay any back taxes," "have no criminal record," "temporary work visas," "seasonal or temporary work," and "then return to their own countries."

2. The other two proposals that garner more than 50% of support from the public also contain phrases such as "who have jobs" and "temporary-worker status."

3. There is one proposal that essentially breaks even. It includes the phrase "allowing immigrants to enter the U.S. legally," which may suggest to respondents a more relaxed immigration policy.

4. Several of the six questions that generate majority disapproval simply ask if it should be easier for illegal immigrants to become legal workers or citizens of the U.S. Without any qualification or specification of exactly how this would take place, Americans respond in quite negative ways. Gallup found 70% of the public disapproving in response to this type of question that specified "to become citizens of the United States" in June 2005. A Quinnipiac poll conducted in February 2006 asked essentially the same question and found 62% disapproval.

5. Questions that without qualifications simply ask if it should be easier for illegal immigrants to "apply for work permits, which would allow them to stay and work in the United States" or to "become legal workers" also find majority disapproval.

6. NBC News/Wall Street Journal asked another question that generates majority disapproval (in March 2006), which included a specific reference to President George W. Bush. This may have caused the responses to be more partisan than is the case in responses to other questions.

7. The remaining question that received majority disapproval was very complex, offering respondents two detailed alternatives and arguments for each choice. The argument offered for the question in favor of allowing foreigners to have temporary worker status (after paying a fine) is "most of them will stay in the United States anyway, and this plan would allow the government to keep track of them and their activities and require them to pay taxes while they are here." The alternative that receives the largest level of support argues that temporary worker status should not be offered to foreigners, and includes the argument that "we should not reward people who have broken the law, and this will encourage even more people to enter the United States illegally."

It is impossible to disentangle all of the elements of this question, but when all was said and done, a majority said they agreed with the "don't let them stay" alternative.

Bottom Line

The fact that a number of proposals for guest worker-type programs that include limits and specifications generate high levels of support suggests that the American public is at least open to the concept of such a program. Phrased differently, it appears that a law allowing illegal immigrants to remain in this country under a set of very specific and limited conditions could "win" if put to a nationwide referendum.

At the same time, the wariness of the public regarding the immigration issue is evident from the fact that support drops significantly under other question conditions. This suggests that this is an issue on which the American public has not yet come to firm judgment.

Survey Methods

The results discussed in this analysis are based on a series of surveys conducted by the organizations specified in the table. Each of these surveys involves a randomly selected national sample of adults, aged 18 and older. Precise details of each survey should be obtained from the sponsoring organization, but in general, for results based on samples of this size, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.