Bush Losing About One Point per Month Since January 2005

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush's job approval rating is now at the low point of his administration at 34%. The decline in Bush's ratings in the latest USA Today/Gallup poll is due to shrinking levels of already low support among Democrats and independents, both of whose job approval ratings for Bush have reached all-time lows. Republican support for Bush has rallied slightly, from 74% earlier in the month to 81% now. Bush's job approval rating has dropped about one point per month, on average, over the past four years. Since his second term began in January 2005, Bush's ratings have fallen from an average of 52% in January and February of 2005 to an average of 36% in April of this year. If current trends continue, by no means a certainty, Bush's rating would tie an all-time low for any president of 22% by June of 2007.

Bush Approval Reaches New Low at 34%

The new poll, conducted April 28-30, shows Bush's job approval rating at 34%. This is the lowest of his administration by two percentage points, below the 36% measured once in early March and once again in early April.

The president's job approval ratings over the course of his entire administration have moved through an extraordinarily large range -- from a high point of 90% in September 2001 to the current low, a difference of 56% points.

Although there has been a great deal of talk about the impact of the high price of gasoline on the decline in Bush's ratings, the steady erosion has been evident since 2001.

As is true for all presidents for whom there are polling data, the trend in President Bush's job approval ratings has not been precisely linear in its downward slope. His ratings have occasionally moved up and down in short-term reactions to real world events. Still, there are only two time periods since January 2005 when Bush's average went up from month to month. The first was July 2005, when his average increased slightly from 46% to 47%. The second came late last fall, when the president's monthly average -- which had dropped to 38% in November, recovered to 42% in December and 43% in January. The downward pattern reasserted itself, however, and the drift continued again in February, when Bush's average fell to 40% and has declined in the two months since. The pace of the decline in Bush's rating has accelerated as of late; Bush's rating has fallen nine percentage points since January.

It is clear that Bush is losing about one point per month because his monthly job approval averages have fallen 16 points in 16 months since January 2005.

Much can change in the months going forward, of course. But at the current rate, the trends would suggest that Bush could reach an all-time low of 22% job approval rating in June 2007.

Only Four Recent Presidents Had Lower Ratings Than Bush

A review of Gallup's presidential approval ratings historically reveals that only four presidents since World War II had a lower approval rating than Bush's current 34%. The four presidents were Harry S. Truman, with Gallup's lowest rating ever, at 22%, Richard Nixon, at 24%, Jimmy Carter, at 28%, and the elder George Bush, at 29%. The low points for the other six presidents were all at least one point higher than Bush's current reading, although four of these were within the statistical margin of error of Bush's 34%: The low points for Lyndon B. Johnson and Ronald Reagan were each 35%; Bill Clinton and Gerald Ford each had a low of 37%; Dwight Eisenhower's low point was 48%; and John F. Kennedy's low point was 56%.

Partisan Ratings of Bush

The current poll continues to show the vast divide in partisan ratings of the president, but suggests that the erosion in support from his base has halted, at least temporarily. Eighty-one percent of Republicans say they currently approve of the way Bush is handling his job. This relatively high level of base support is coupled with ratings of only 21% among independents and just 6% of Democrats.

Republicans' ratings of Bush have improved slightly in this poll. Earlier in the month, Gallup found 74% of Republicans approving of Bush, which was the low point in Bush's ratings among Republicans. Ratings of both independents and Democrats declined in this poll, and ratings among both groups are now at the lowest point of Bush's administration.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,011 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 28-30, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.