Jimmy Carter Retrospective

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Jimmy Carter was elected president in 1976 as the ultimate outsider in the wake of the Watergate scandal. A former Navy officer, peanut farmer and one-term governor of Georgia, Carter began his presidency with very high initial job approval ratings, which declined as the nation faced high inflation, high unemployment and an energy crisis. Prominent international incidents like the Iranian hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan led to rallies in support for Carter, but as the crises lingered, Carter's ratings sagged, and Ronald Reagan defeated him in his reelection bid in 1980.

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Carter's deft campaign for the 1976 Democratic presidential nomination brought him from relative obscurity to party nominee. He narrowly defeated incumbent Gerald Ford in the 1976 presidential election. Carter started his term in office with a solid 66% initial job approval rating -- one of the highest for new presidents in Gallup's records -- and he enjoyed an extended honeymoon. He spent most of his first two months in office with better-than 70% approval ratings -- including a personal-best 75% in March -- and remained at or above 60% through the summer of 1977.

In early September 1977, Carter's honeymoon ended, with his approval rating falling from 66% to 54%, just after he signed the controversial Panama Canal Treaty. The treaty transferred authority for the canal from the U.S. back to Panama. His support held above 50% through February 1978, when it dipped below the majority level for the first time. For much of 1978, his approval ratings were below 50%, including a series of ratings between 39% and 44% from April through September as the nation struggled with rising inflation.

One of the greatest accomplishments of Carter's presidency -- the Camp David Peace Accords between Egypt and Israel -- helped push his approval rating back to the high 40s in the fall of 1978. His rating remained at that level through the midterm elections, when the Democratic Party lost a relatively modest 11 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Carter's approval ratings inched back above 50% after the midterms, but this increase proved short-lived.

In January 1979, an Islamic revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini overthrew the American-backed Shah of Iran. The Iranian revolution resulted in a disruption of world energy supplies and caused greater political instability in the Middle East. Iran proved to be the greatest foreign policy challenge of Carter's presidency, and his ratings began to decline as the events unfolded, falling from 50% in early January to 43% in the middle of the month.

Carter's approval rating only got worse as the U.S. economy continued to struggle, with high inflation and a surge in gas prices, as well as the Three Mile Island nuclear accident. By early June, Carter's approval had dipped to 29%, making him just one of five presidents in Gallup's polling history -- along with Harry Truman, Richard Nixon, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush -- to have dropped below 30%. His July address pointing out a national crisis of confidence -- commonly known as the "malaise" speech -- failed to inspire the public.

Carter's approval ratings remained at historically low levels into the fall of 1979. Amid the president's declining popularity, Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy and California Gov. Jerry Brown launched campaigns to challenge Carter for the 1980 Democratic presidential nomination.

On Nov. 4, 1979, Iranian revolutionaries took 66 Americans hostage -- most of whom remained captive for the duration of Carter's presidency. As has occurred with other international events, the American public rallied around its leader during the hostage crisis. Carter's job approval rating increased from 32% to 38% initially, and then took a bigger jump in late November to 51% after 13 hostages were released.

A majority of Americans continued to express approval of Carter's presidency as the hostage crisis persisted. A new international flash point -- the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan -- took place in late December 1979. Carter responded in part by calling for a U.S. boycott of the 1980 Summer Olympic Games in Moscow. Shortly after that announcement and his 1980 State of the Union address, his approval rating climbed to 58%, the highest it had been since the end of his presidential honeymoon in the fall of 1977.

Still, Carter was faced with a bad economy, the Iranian hostage crisis and the growing Soviet threat while seeking reelection. By March, shortly after the presidential nomination campaigns got underway, Carter's approval rating slid back into the low 40s. He was able to fend off his challengers for the Democratic nomination, even as his approval continued to slide, dropping to as low as 31% in June. Gallup's last job approval rating of Carter before the 1980 election, from September 1980, was just 37%. After losing his reelection bid to Reagan, Carter concluded his presidency with a 34% job approval rating in a December 1980 poll.

Historical Comparison

Carter, who died Dec. 29, 2024, at the age of 100, is one of seven post-World War II presidents whose average approval rating is below 50%. His presidential approval average of 45.5% essentially matches Harry Truman's 45.4% as the second-lowest measured to date, ahead of only Donald Trump’s first term.

Carter’s 45.5% is also the second-lowest first-term average for any post-World War II president to date, ahead of Trump’s 41.1%, and it is the fifth-lowest average for a president in either his first or his second term. Nixon (34.4%), Truman (36.5%) and George W. Bush (36.5%) had lower averages in their second terms.

Postpresidency

When Gallup asked Americans to retrospectively evaluate Carter's presidency in June 2023, 57% said they approved of the job he did, and 36% disapproved. His retrospective approval ranks in the bottom half of presidents, better than Nixon and Trump, but similar to George W. Bush and Bill Clinton.

Carter's 57% retrospective job approval exceeds both his 46% term average rating and his 34% final approval rating as president; this is consistent with the prevailing pattern for former presidents. On average, for the nine presidents evaluated in the June 2023 poll, their retrospective approval is seven percentage points higher than the president's job approval average while in office and 12 points higher than his last job approval rating as president.

Gallup also asks Americans to assess how history will judge the former presidents, having last done so in January 2021. Overall, 27% of Americans say Carter will be judged as an "outstanding" or "above average" president; 43% think he will be regarded as "average"; and 24% as "below average" or "poor." Carter’s rating improved between 2017 and 2021, as more Americans in 2017 gave him below-average or poor evaluations than outstanding or above-average ones. Nixon, George W. Bush and Trump are the only presidents who had higher negative than positive evaluations in the 2021 measure.

After leaving office, Carter was active in charitable and diplomatic work, culminating in his winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2002. His work in these areas helped keep him prominent as a public figure and led to his frequent appearances on Gallup’s Most Admired Man list. In fact, only the Rev. Billy Graham and Reagan had more top 10 appearances on that list than Carter.

Carter ranked first in the 1977 through 1979 Most Admired Man polls, in the first three years of his presidency. Pope John Paul II edged him out for first place in 1980, a relatively rare instance in which an incumbent president did not win. After leaving office, Carter managed two second-place finishes -- in 1994, after helping negotiate a diplomatic solution in Haiti, and in 2002, after winning the Nobel Prize. Carter last finished in the top 10 in 2019.

Implications

Carter presided over a turbulent time for the United States, with a poor economy, an energy crisis and several major international challenges. Unable to turn around the economy or negotiate the release of the U.S. hostages in Iran, Carter suffered a loss of popularity, and this led to defeat in his bid for a second term. Although a majority of Americans in retrospect approve of the job he did as president, he ranks below most other former presidents on this measure, and his job approval while in office is among the lowest in history. Carter may be remembered as much for his postpresidential work, something the public recognized by frequently naming him among the Most Admired Men long after he left office.

Explore President Carter's approval ratings and compare them with those of other presidents in the Gallup Presidential Job Approval Center.

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