GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
The focus in Florida has been and continues to be directly on procedures, processes and laws, and the highest probability is that the winner of the presidential election in Florida ultimately will be determined by legal rulings. There can be little doubt, however, that public opinion is potentially an extremely important part of this process.
For one thing, public opinion may well be an instrumental factor in helping determine the degree to which either candidate pursues legal or other options to keep the race open, as opposed to conceding if and when it appears that there is an officially certified winner in the state.
Additionally, the public's acceptance of whatever outcome ensues may be an important factor in the operation of the U.S. government over the next four years -- regardless of whoever becomes the next president. A president viewed as having arrived at the office illegitimately would undoubtedly be in a less certain and less powerful position than one whose ascension to the White House has the public's imprimatur of legitimacy. And the way in which the public views the process may have as yet unknown repercussions on the course of future elections and faith in the overall democratic process in years to come.
The two candidates, and their campaign teams, are well aware of the ultimate importance of the public's views of the process. The result has been an almost continuous parade of press conferences and press briefings as each side attempts to establish or reinforce its position in the eyes of Americans.
There is unlikely to be another nationwide vote on the presidency or the issues involved in the current situation in the near future. Survey research, therefore, becomes the only mechanism by which, particularly in the short term, the views and opinions of the American public can be accurately assessed.
Recognizing this fact, public opinion specialists have wasted little time since the November 7 election in measuring the reaction of Americans across the country to the process as it unfolds. Gallup has conducted three polls since November 7, covering the days of November 11-12, November 13-15, and November 19.
What follows is a summary of where the public stands on a number of the critical questions raised by the post-election process this year. This review includes polling conducted through Sunday, November 19.
The first and perhaps most important question: Have Americans lost faith in the election process this year, and as a result will the next president -- whoever he may be -- suffer from a crisis of legitimacy?
There are few signs that Americans will not be able to view the next president -- either George W. Bush or Al Gore -- as legitimate. There has, in fact, been relatively little change on this measure over the past week. Eighty percent of Americans say they would accept Al Gore as the legitimate president should he be declared the winner and inaugurated, while 86% say they would accept George W. Bush as legitimate.
Over the course of the past week, the percentage of Americans who say they would accept Bush has risen slightly, while the percentage saying the same about Gore is slightly lower, perhaps due to the visibility given the unofficial vote counts showing Bush ahead in Florida (without the inclusion of hand counts now underway in three southeastern Florida counties). A look at these perceptions by support group shows that Gore supporters are now a little more likely to say that Bush could serve legitimately (72% now as opposed to 61% last weekend), while Bush supporters have dropped from 66% to 58% in terms of saying they would support Gore as legitimate.
Still, from the broader perspective, these movements are slight, and it is apparent that either candidate would have only a small group of partisans in the country not according him legitimacy in the presidential role:
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If [Al Gore/George W. Bush] is declared the winner and inaugurated next January, would you accept him as the legitimate president, or not?
|
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|
|
No, not accept |
|
|
|
Al Gore |
|||
|
November 19 |
80% |
19 |
1 |
|
November 11-12 |
82% |
16 |
2 |
|
George W. Bush |
|||
|
November 19 |
86% |
13 |
1 |
|
November 11-12 |
79% |
19 |
2 |
Looked at from a somewhat different perspective, only a relatively small minority of Americans think it would be disastrous if the candidate they do not support is ultimately elected president. In fact, almost three-quarters of both Bush supporters and Gore supporters say that it would not be disastrous for the country if the "other" candidate is elected.
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Suppose for a moment that the candidate you did not support ends up becoming president. Do you think that he would be such a bad president that it would be disastrous for the country, or not?
|
|||
|
Yes, disastrous |
No, not disastrous |
No opinion |
|
|
2000 Nov 19 |
|||
|
National Adults |
21% |
75 |
4 |
|
Gore supporters |
23% |
73 |
4 |
|
Bush supporters |
24% |
73 |
3 |
Additionally, and importantly, the percentage of Americans who say that the current situation -- in which the presidency remains unresolved -- is a constitutional crisis hasdecreasedslightly over the past week, from 15% to 10%, and the percentage who say it is a major problem has also gone down, from 49% to 44%. At the other end of the scale, the number of Americans who call the situation a minor problem has risen from 25% to 32%, and the percentage who say it is not a problem at all, while still small, has gone from 9% to 12%.
Overall, the "crisis/major problem" segment in society has dropped from 64% last weekend to 54% now, while the "minor problem/no problem at all" segment has moved up from 34% to 44%.
In short, as the situation has continued well past the one-week mark, it appears that Americans are in a way getting used to it, and the alarm about it being a fundamental threat to our democracy is apparently subsiding, at least to a degree:
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Which of these statements do you think best describes the situation that has occurred since the election for president -- [ROTATED: it is a constitutional crisis, it is a major problem for the country but is not a crisis, it is a minor problem for the country, (or) it is not a problem for the country at all]?
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|
Constitutional crisis |
Major problem |
Minor problem |
Not a |
No |
|||
|
2000 Nov 19 |
|||||||
|
National Adults |
10% |
44 |
32 |
12 |
2 |
||
|
Gore supporters |
8% |
41 |
35 |
15 |
1 |
||
|
Bush supporters |
13% |
49 |
29 |
8 |
1 |
||
|
2000 Nov 11-12 ^ |
|||||||
|
National Adults |
15% |
49 |
25 |
9 |
2 |
||
|
Gore supporters |
17% |
49 |
23 |
9 |
2 |
||
|
Bush supporters |
14% |
50 |
27 |
8 |
1 |
||
|
^ |
WORDING: Which of these statements do you think best describes the situation that has occurred since Tuesday's election for president -- [ROTATED: it is a constitutional crisis, it is a major problem for the country but is not a crisis, it is a minor problem for the country, (or) it is not a problem for the country at all]? |
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There is other evidence that shows that the American public is not highly upset by the situation at this point in time. A Gallup poll conducted Monday through Wednesday, November 13-15, found no diminution in the percentage of Americans who were satisfied with the way things are going in the United States. Essentially as many Americans said that they are satisfied with the way things are going (as of the 15th of November) as had been the case in the months prior to the election.
In fact, the entire controversy may have a perhaps unintended but positive consequence of encouraging voting. When Americans were asked in the Gallup poll last week about the effect of the 2000 election on their probability of voting in the future, about four out of 10 said they will be more likely to vote in the next election, perhaps a harbinger of increased turnout in 2004.
Are there any indications that the public will become less tolerant if the process continues without immediate resolution? How long is the American public willing to wait for a resolution?
Clearly there is a segment of society that feels the election has already been prolonged too much. In this past Sunday's Gallup poll, Americans were asked a straightforward question: "Which comes closer to your view -- (a) you are willing to wait at least a little while longer for a final resolution to the presidential election situation, or (b) the presidential election situation has gone on too long already?"
The responses to this question show an almost even split in the public. Fifty-one percent say they are willing to wait longer, while 48% say the situation has gone on too long.
Those who said they were willing to wait were asked how much longer they were willing to wait, and over half -- 29% of the total sample -- said they would wait as long as it took. The others, a total of about 22% of the sample, split about evenly in terms of being willing to wait up to two weeks, as opposed to waiting for a month or even up to Inauguration Day in January.
There is little surprise in the finding that the reactions to this "wait" question are very partisan in nature. Bush supporters overwhelmingly -- to the tune of 83% -- say the situation has gone on too long already. Gore supporters, just as overwhelmingly (82%), say they are willing to wait at least a while longer.
Here are the data:
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Which comes closer to your view – [you are willing to wait at least a little while longer for a final resolution to the presidential election situation (or) the presidential election situation has gone on too long already]? ASKED OF THOSE WHO SAY THEY ARE WILLING TO WAIT: How long are you willing to wait for a final resolution to this matter -- until Thanksgiving, up to two weeks, up to one month, until Inauguration Day, January 20, 2001, (or) as long as it takes?
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2000 Nov 19 |
|||
|
National Adults |
Gore supporters |
Bush supporters |
|
|
Gone on too long already |
48% |
17% |
83% |
|
Willing to wait until Thanksgiving |
4 |
4 |
4 |
|
Willing to wait two weeks |
8 |
9 |
5 |
|
Willing to wait one month |
5 |
8 |
1 |
|
Willing to wait until Inauguration Day |
5 |
7 |
2 |
|
Willing to wait as long as it takes |
29 |
54 |
4 |
|
No opinion |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Despite this split, it is also clear that for supporters of both candidates, there could come a point at which they would be willing to capitulate and have their opponent elected as opposed to having the situation continue indefinitely. The question asked which would be worse -- losing the election to the "other" candidate, or having the uncertainly of who won the presidency continue indefinitely. By a margin of 73% to 19%, Americans choose the latter as the worse of these two evils. There is almost no difference between Gore and Bush supporters on this measure.
(One reason why Americans feel this way may be due to the fact, discussed above, that the majority of the public does not feel that the world would come to an end if its candidate is not elected.)
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In your opinion, which would be worse -- the candidate you support does not become the president (or) the situation regarding the uncertainty of who won the presidency continues indefinitely?
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Candidate does not become president |
Situation continues indefinitely |
No |
|
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2000 Nov 19 |
|||
|
National Adults |
19% |
73 |
8 |
|
Gore supporters |
22% |
71 |
7 |
|
Bush supporters |
20% |
73 |
7 |
While the public has no official standing or vote -- at this point -- in the process unfolding in Florida, what exactly is it that Americans would want to occur in Florida if they were in charge?
One thing is clear. The inclusion of "hand counts" in the final vote tallies in Florida has enough acceptability to give it the edge over the alternative of "no hand counts" when the public is asked about it directly. A number of different polls have asked about hand counts over the past week or so, and it appears that between 50% and 60% of the public says that it favors them.
In Sunday's Gallup poll, the question was asked as follows:
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As you may know, the outcome of the presidential election in Florida is still in doubt. The absentee ballots from overseas have been tallied and a machine recount was finished earlier last week. Officials in three Florida counties, however, are still recounting by hand the votes cast in those counties and courts are still deciding if the recounts by hand should be included in the final vote total. In your opinion, should these vote recounts by hand be included in the final vote total in Florida, or not? |
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|
Yes, included |
No, not included |
No opinion |
|
|
2000 Nov 19 |
|||
|
National Adults |
60% |
37 |
3 |
|
Gore supporters |
92% |
6 |
2 |
|
Bush supporters |
23% |
75 |
2 |
The answers to this question certainly, if nothing else, testify to the high level of attention being paid to the situation in Florida by the average American. Note the sharp division of opinion between Gore and Bush supporters. Gore supporters overwhelmingly endorse the inclusion of the hand counts, while Bush supporters break in the opposite direction, although by not quite as significant a margin. This question was asked near the beginning of Sunday's poll, and respondents were not reminded of who was requesting recounts. Yet Gore supporters quite evidently are aware of the Gore campaign's push for hand recounts, as are Bush supporters apparently aware of the Bush campaign's fight against them.
At the same time, and perhaps a little paradoxically, when asked about the relative accuracy of machine counts versus hand counts, the public says that machine counts are more accurate. In other words, six out of 10 Americans favor the inclusion of the hand counts, even while the same percentage say that machine counts -- the basis for the unofficial numbers that would be used in Florida if the hand counts are not allowed -- are more accurate.
Here again, there are differences by partisan group, but even 35% of Gore supporters choose the machine count as the more accurate:
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Do you think a hand recount (or) machine recount is a more accurate way to count votes?
|
|||
|
Hand recount |
Machine recount |
No opinion |
|
|
2000 Nov 19 |
|||
|
National Adults |
35% |
58 |
7 |
|
Gore supporters |
57% |
35 |
8 |
|
Bush supporters |
8% |
87 |
5 |
Whatever is ultimately done, it is apparent that most Americans have given up on the idea that there will ever be a completely accurate count of voting in Florida. Bush supporters are a little more pessimistic on this front than are Gore supporters, but -- despite the statements by the Gore campaign that the hand counts would produce the most accurate rendition of the true intentions of Florida voters -- only 24% of Gore supporters in the sample say that a completely accurate count will ever be possible. All in all, almost eight out of 10 Americans say that completely accurate counts will never be possible.
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Do you think it is possible to ever get a completely accurate count of all the votes in Florida, or don't you think so? |
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|
Yes, possible |
No, not possible |
No opinion |
|
|
2000 Nov 19 |
|||
|
National Adults |
19% |
79 |
2 |
|
Gore supporters |
24% |
73 |
3 |
|
Bush supporters |
13% |
85 |
2 |
Will the process in Florida ultimately produce a fair outcome? Here we have another even split. Forty-nine percent say they are not confident in the ultimate outcome, and 49% say they are at least somewhat confident. Gore supporters are a little more optimistic on this front than are Bush supporters.
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How confident are you that the election process in Florida will produce a fair outcome? |
|||||
|
Very confident |
Somewhat confident |
Not too confident |
Not at all confident |
No |
|
|
2000 Nov 19 |
|||||
|
National Adults |
16% |
33 |
27 |
22 |
2 |
|
Gore supporters |
18% |
36 |
25 |
19 |
2 |
|
Bush supporters |
11% |
31 |
31 |
25 |
2 |
It is clear that the involvement of the courts in the process is bothersome to a majority -- about 59% -- of Americans. Both sides have filed lawsuits in relationship to the election in Florida, but it is Bush supporters who are most bothered by the intrusion of the legal system into the process, perhaps because of the decision of the Florida Supreme Court on Friday to delay official certification of Bush as victor (based on the totals without the hand recounts being included) until a hearing could be held on Monday, November 20.
|
As you may know, several courts are now involved in the Florida election process, and court decisions may end up determining the final outcome. Does this bother you -- |
|||||
|
A great |
A fair |
Not |
Not |
No |
|
|
2000 Nov 19 |
|||||
|
National Adults |
30% |
29 |
23 |
17 |
1 |
|
Gore supporters |
17% |
27 |
34 |
21 |
1 |
|
Bush supporters |
47% |
31 |
14 |
7 |
1 |
Election Day revealed an American public split almost precisely down the middle in terms of its support for the Democratic candidate Al Gore and the Republican candidate George W. Bush. Has that changed in any substantial way? Has one or the other candidate gained in public esteem or acceptance since November 7, and/or has one or the other candidate slipped?
A Gallup poll conducted Monday through Wednesday of this past week found that neither George W. Bush nor Al Gore had lost significant ground in terms of his favorable ratings among the American public, comparing pre-election to post-election measures. Both maintained favorable ratings of slightly over 50% of the public.
The Sunday Gallup poll just completed asked Americans if they approved or disapproved of the way in which the Bush and Gore campaign teams have been handling the situation since the election -- a repeat of a question asked last weekend.
The basic results show that while approval of Bush and his team has stayed almost exactly the same from last weekend to this one, approval of the Gore team has dropped slightly. In particular, disapproval of the way in which the Gore team is handling the situation has gone up over the past week, and the results leave Bush in a considerably more positive position than Gore as of Sunday's polling.
Here are the data: the approval-to-disapproval ratio for the Bush team is now 55% to 40%, while the approval-to-disapproval ratio for the Gore team is now 48% to 49%. Looked at differently, Bush has moved from a 12-point positive margin to a 15-point positive margin. Gore, on the other hand, has moved from an 8-point positive margin to a 1-point negative margin over the same period of time.
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
George W. Bush and his campaign advisers |
||
|
2000 Nov 19 |
55 |
40 |
|
2000 Nov 11-12 |
53 |
41 |
|
Al Gore and his campaign advisers |
||
|
2000 Nov 19 |
48 |
49 |
|
2000 Nov 11-12 |
52 |
44 |
How many Americans are totally disenchanted with the actions of both candidates? Not many. An analysis of the data shows that only 13% of Americans say they disapprove of the way both teams have handled themselves, a smaller number than the 20% of optimists who approve of the actions of both.
|
2000 Nov 19 |
|
|
Approve of both Gore and Bush |
20% |
|
Approve of Gore, Disapprove of Bush |
27 |
|
Approve of Bush, Disapprove of Gore |
35 |
|
Disapprove of both Gore and Bush |
13 |
|
Other/No opinion |
5 |
What about Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris, whose actions have been at the center of much of the controversy in Florida? Forty-nine percent of Americans say they approve of her actions, while 41% say they disapprove. Harris is a Republican, and before the intervention of the Florida Supreme Court, she stood ready to officially certify the Florida vote without including the additional hand recounts now underway, which would have made Bush the victor. It is, therefore, perhaps not surprising that approval of her actions is much stronger among Bush supporters than among Gore supporters. Perhaps what is surprising is the fact that 25% of Gore supporters say that they approve of her actions, while 14% of Bush supporters say they disapprove.
|
Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris |
||
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
|
|
2000 Nov 19 |
||
|
National Adults |
49% |
41 |
|
Gore supporters |
25% |
64 |
|
Bush supporters |
79% |
14 |
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with -- 870 -- national adults, aged 18+, conducted November 19, 2000. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
Results based on the subsample of -- 370 -- Gore supporters have a margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.
Results based on the subsample of -- 381 -- Bush supporters have a margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.
Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.