Slightly More Positive Views of War, Bush Following al-Zarqawi Death

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new USA Today/Gallup Poll, conducted in the days following U.S. air strikes that resulted in the death of Iraqi terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, shows Americans have slightly more positive views of the Iraq war and George W. Bush's performance in office than prior to last week. Bush's approval rating, now at 38%, had shown some positive movement even before al-Zarqawi's death and is now his best since February 2006. And Americans are slightly less inclined to say the U.S. made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, though a majority still does. The majority of Americans believe al-Zarqawi's death was a major achievement for the United States, but only 1 in 5 expects there will now be fewer insurgent attacks in Iraq as a result.

The June 9-11, 2006 poll finds a slight majority of Americans, 53%, saying that al-Zarqawi's death was a major achievement for the United States. Thirty-six percent say it was a minor achievement, and 9% said it was not an achievement at all.

Even though most Americans believe al-Zarqawi's death was important, they accorded more significance to the capture of former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and the killing of his two sons. Eighty-two percent described the U.S. capture of Saddam Hussein as a major achievement in December 2003, and 63% gave the same rating to the deaths of Uday and Qusay Hussein in July 2003.

A relatively small percentage of Americans -- just 20% -- expect that there will now be fewer insurgent attacks in Iraq following al-Zarqawi's death. Forty-eight percent expect no change in the number of attacks, and 30% believe there will now be more attacks.

It was expected by some observers that Bush's job approval rating would increase in response to the death of Iraqi insurgent leader al-Zarqawi. The 38% weekend reading, while up slightly, is not a significant surge. In fact, even before this latest news, the president's ratings had been on the rise. Bush reached the low point of his administration with a 31% job approval rating in Gallup's May 5-7, 2006 poll, but had seen his ratings improve to 33% in mid-May and 36% in early June. Bush's ratings were still higher, in the low 40% range, at the beginning of the year.

The latest poll shows that Americans' views of the war with Iraq are also more positive in the wake of al-Zarqawi's death than they were in the spring. Given that two months or more have elapsed since many of these questions were last asked, it is not entirely clear if the more optimistic assessments of the war developed as a direct result of the killing of al-Zarqawi.

• Americans, by a 51% to 46% margin, are still inclined to believe the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq. However, in early April, 57% said the U.S. made a mistake, one of the most negative readings Gallup had measured since the war began.

• Forty-seven percent of Americans now say that things are going well for the United States in Iraq, up from 38% in March. A majority, 53%, still think things are going badly for the United States.

• Sixty-nine percent say the United States can win the war in Iraq, and 48% think it will do so. The corresponding figures were 60% and 39% in April.

• Bush's rating for handling the situation in Iraq is also up by four points, from 32% in late April to 36% now. This increase is similar to the increase in Bush's overall job rating since April, suggesting that the uptick in views of his handling Iraq is part of a more generally positive attitude towards the president. His current job approval rating on Iraq is roughly the same as what Gallup measured in February and early March.

On the question of U.S. troops in Iraq, the public is divided, and somewhat more so than in March. Roughly half of Americans favor a deadline for removal of troops in the near future -- either immediately (17%) or within a year's time (32%). About the same percentage favors a more open-ended commitment of troops -- either withdrawing them but taking as much time as needed to turn control over to the Iraqis (42%), or an increase in the number of troops (6%).

Here are four different plans the U.S. could follow in dealing with the war in Iraq. Which ONE do you prefer -- [ROTATED: withdraw all troops from Iraq immediately, withdraw all troops by June 2007 -- that is, in 12 months' time, withdraw troops, but take as many years to do this as are needed to turn control over to the Iraqis, (or) send more troops to Iraq]?

In March, 54% favored a complete withdrawal in the near future, while 43% favored a longer-term commitment of troops.

Partisan Views of Bush and the War

The improvement in Bush's approval rating in recent week has been mostly evident among Republicans. In two May 2006 Gallup Polls in which Bush averaged 32% approval, his support was 69% among Republicans, 25% among independents, and 8% among Democrats. In two June polls to date, Bush has averaged 37% approval, including average ratings of 78% among Republicans, 28% among independents, and 9% among Democrats.

Republicans' views of whether the war was a mistake have not been affected much by the recent events -- they were decidedly positive about the war even as the public was generally more negative. In recent weeks, Democrats and independents have shown somewhat higher basic war support.

All partisan groups are now more optimistic in their assessment of how things are going for the United States in Iraq than they were in March.

Views of the significance of al-Zarqawi's death show variation by party affiliation. Three in four Republicans (76%) say al-Zarqawi's death is a major achievement for the United States, while only 41% of independents and 40% of Democrats share that point of view.

Republicans also are more positive about the impact al-Zarqawi's death will have on insurgency in Iraq. Thirty-two percent of Republicans say it will result in fewer insurgent attacks, 45% say there will be the same number, and 20% say there will be more attacks. In contrast, just 12% of Democrats expect a reduction in the number of attacks, 43% believe there will be no change, and 44% say there will be more attacks.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,002 adults, aged 18 years and older, conducted June 9-11, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation in Iraq?

19. In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?

20. In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq -- [ROTATED: very well, moderately well, moderately badly, (or) very badly]?

21. Which comes closer to your view about the war in Iraq -- [ROTATED: you think the U.S. will definitely win the war in Iraq, you think the U.S. will probably win the war in Iraq, you think the U.S. can win the war in Iraq, but you don't think it will win, (or) you do not think the U.S. can win the war in Iraq]?