Hispanic Support for Bush Similar to National Average

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's annual poll on Minority Rights and Relations finds little change in blacks' and Hispanics' evaluations of George W. Bush compared with last year. The vast majority of blacks continue to give Bush low marks for his job performance, while Hispanics are more likely to disapprove than approve. Hispanics' views of Bush have generally tracked the opinions of the broader public in recent years.

The poll of over 2,000 Americans was conducted June 8-25, 2006, and included oversamples of approximately 500 blacks and Hispanics each. Interviews with Hispanics were conducted in both English and Spanish.

Bush Approval Among Blacks

Just 15% of blacks approve of the job Bush is doing, while 78% disapprove. Bush's standing among blacks has been very consistent over the past three years. During the six years the Minority Rights and Relations poll has been conducted, Bush's approval rating has only been as high as 41% among blacks.

Blacks are overwhelmingly Democratic, so low levels of approval for Bush are too be expected. Sixty-four percent of blacks identified themselves as Democrats in the poll, and an additional 18% are independent but leaned to the Democratic Party, resulting in a total of 82% of blacks who are sympathetic to the Democratic Party. That compares with 37% of all Americans who identify as Democrats and 53% who identify or lean to the Democratic Party.

Bush Approval Among Hispanics

Bush has made some notable attempts to reach out to Hispanics, both as the governor of Texas and as president. He has long supported a guest worker program, and supports legislation that would give illegal immigrants who have resided in the United States for several years the chance to become a citizen if they meet certain requirements.

Those appeals have not done much to bolster Bush's support among Hispanics, who view Bush similarly to the general public. The poll finds that 38% of Hispanics approve of the job Bush is doing, while 53% disapprove. Those figures are right in line with Bush's recent overall approval ratings -- he averaged 37% approval and 58% disapproval in June.

More generally, Hispanics support for Bush during his presidency has been similar to his national support. When Bush was riding a tide of popularity following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Hispanics were helping to propel that tide with support in excess of 60%. In recent years, as Bush's public standing has dropped, it has also fallen significantly among Hispanics. In the last three Minority Relations polls, his approval rating among Hispanics has been around 40%.

Hispanics are more likely to identify as Democrats than Republicans, but not nearly to the degree blacks do. Forty-two percent of Hispanics in the poll identified as Democrats, 40% as independents, and 17% as Republicans. Hispanics are almost twice as likely to identify or lean to the Democratic Party (58%) as to the Republican Party (30%).

Most of the decline in Bush's approval rating in the past year has come among non-Hispanic whites. Whites' support for Bush is lower compared with last year dropping from 47% to 42%. Hispanics support has declined slightly, from 41% to 38%, while blacks have held fairly steady (16% in 2005 and 15% this year).

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 2,032 adults, including oversamples of 500 blacks and 506 Hispanics, aged 18 years and older, conducted June 8-25, 2006. The total sample is weighted so that it reflects the national adult population. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±6 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For results based on the sample of 500 blacks, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 506 Hispanics, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points (167 out of the 506 interviews with Hispanics were conducted in Spanish).

For results based on the sample of 872 non-Hispanic whites, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points.

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?