GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- What would Ralph Nader's voters be doing if they couldn't vote for the Green Party candidate? The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll has asked Nader voters just that question over recent days, and the data below represent the responses based on the aggregated total of 193 Nader voters interviewed between Oct. 23 and Nov. 1:
Who would be your second choice for president -- or would you not vote at all?
| Nader | |
|---|---|
| % | |
| Likely Voters | N=193 |
| Al Gore | 43 |
| George W. Bush | 21 |
| Would not vote | 21 |
| Other (vol.) | 6 |
| Don't Know/Refused | 9 |
| (vol.) Volunteered response |
The conventional wisdom suggests that Nader is hurting the chances of Democratic candidate Al Gore, and the Gallup poll data would - to a degree - support that hypothesis. About four out of 10 Nader voters say they would indeed vote for Gore if they couldn't vote for Nader. On the other hand, as can be seen, that leaves more than half of Nader voters who would tilt towards another candidate, or who say that they would not vote at all. About two out of 10 would vote for Bush, while three out of 10 say they either would not vote at all or didn't know for whom they would vote. A very small number say they would vote for still another third-party candidate.
The most recent tracking data suggest that Nader is getting about 4% of the vote nationally. Simple multiplication suggests that Gore would pick up - at most - 2% of the vote if all of Nader's voters suddenly decided not to vote for their candidate and followed through on what they said they would do in the survey.
Adding 2% to Gore's total would certainly pull him closer to Bush in the national popular vote, but would not - at this time - put him over the top. However, if 40% of Nader voters were to move into the Gore column in certain states, it is possible that this change could tilt that state towards the Democratic candidate, and - in some scenarios - make the difference in the overall Electoral College vote on Nov. 7.
Survey Methods
Latest results are based on telephone interviews with 193 likely
voters, aged 18+, conducted Oct. 23- Nov. 1, 2000. For results
based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95%
confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 8 percentage
points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or
bias into the findings of public opinion polls.