A Closer Look at Americans' Views of John McCain

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain is considered by many to be the front-runner for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. He is rated positively by a majority of Americans, and is unique in that evaluations of him are similar among Americans of different partisan affiliations. While that would make him a formidable candidate in a general election, he could be vulnerable in Republican presidential primaries and caucuses. Indeed, in a recent poll Gallup found Republicans were more likely to find Rudy Giuliani or Condoleezza Rice, rather than McCain, as acceptable Republican presidential nominees.

A new Gallup Panel survey delved more deeply into Americans' views of McCain, trying to get a better understanding of what they like and dislike about him. In general, Americans admire him for his service in Vietnam and his time as a prisoner of war there, and for his perceived principled stand on issues. But not all Americans agree with the latter sentiment -- the most frequent criticism of him is that he is wishy-washy and needs to take a stand on issues.

In a broad sense, Americans cite McCain's character more often than his issue positions or experience when describing what they like about him, and are more likely to point to his issue positions when describing what they dislike about him. Republicans are more likely to say his issue positions are a reason to dislike the Republican senator than to like him. One positive note for McCain is that about 6 in 10 Americans cannot say anything they dislike about him.

Overall Opinion of McCain

Gallup polling has consistently shown that most Americans have positive opinions of McCain. According to a June 23-25 USA Today/Gallup poll, 56% of Americans say they have a favorable opinion of him, 25% an unfavorable opinion, and 19% do not have an opinion about him. These opinions have been fairly stable since McCain gained national prominence during the 2000 Republican presidential primaries, although he was rated slightly more positively (with favorable ratings averaging above 60%) then compared to now.

McCain stands apart from most politicians in that his ratings are similar across the three party groups. Fifty-nine percent of Republicans, 55% of independents, and 56% of Democrats rate him favorably.

By comparison, George W. Bush has a 40% favorable rating, but his favorable ratings are 86% among Republicans, 34% among independents and 12% among Democrats. Hillary Clinton, the presumed front-runner for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, has a 51% overall favorable rating, including 16% among Republicans, 52% among independents, and 75% among Democrats.

Likes and Dislikes About McCain

Gallup's July 24-27 Panel survey asked a nationally representative sample of respondents what they liked or admired about McCain, and separately, what they disliked about him. In general, Americans have a lot more positive than negative things to say about him, but the data also suggest the public does not have very well-formed opinions about McCain. Forty percent said they had no opinion or said there was nothing they admired about him, while an even larger percentage, 58%, had no opinion or said there was nothing they disliked about him.

Americans are most likely to say they like or admire McCain for his service in Vietnam. While there, McCain was captured by the North Vietnamese and was a prisoner of war for over five years. Fourteen percent laud him for doing what he believes in and not being wishy-washy.

McCain has positioned himself as a moderate, sometimes taking stances that run counter to the wishes of the majority of his party, such as his work to pass campaign finance reform. In fact, 5% of respondents specifically reference his not always being aligned with Republicans as something they like about McCain. Eight percent say he has high moral character.

Please tell me what you like or admire about John McCain. [OPEN-ENDED]

The public has less to say negatively about McCain. The top response, mentioned by 9%, is that he is wishy-washy and needs to take a stance on issues. Five percent do not like him for his Republican politics and 4% for his support of President Bush; most of these respondents, not surprisingly, are Democrats.

Please tell me what you dislike or don't admire about John McCain. [OPEN-ENDED]

In addition to the specific mentions, responses to these two questions can be grouped into broad categories to see where McCain's strengths and weaknesses lie. The responses lend themselves to a three-category classification: those that deal with his issue positions, his personal characteristics, and his past experience.

The data suggest that McCain's character is his greatest appeal, followed by his experience and then issues, which are less prominent. Thirty-two percent of respondents mention something about McCain's character or personality as something they like about him, while 19% refer to his experience (in Vietnam or in politics), and just 12% mention his issue positions or policies.

Issues figure much more prominently when Americans enumerate their dislikes about McCain. Twenty-two percent mention his issue positions or policy stands as something they dislike about McCain, even more than mention something about his character (17%). Just 1% bring up his past experience as a negative for him.

These responses vary by party, as shown below.

Not surprisingly, Democrats are much more likely to mention McCain's character (32%) or his experience (17%), rather than his issue positions (10%), as something they like about him. There is a similar pattern of responses among independents. Republicans are equally likely to say something positive about his experience (28%) or character (26%), while 13% mention issues.

Notably, Republicans are more likely to mention issues as something they dislike about the Republican McCain (22%) than something they like about him (13%), perhaps due to his taking positions sometimes out of step with the party. Democrats and independents are also more likely to mention issues as something they dislike rather than like about McCain.

But Republicans are about equally likely to mention aspects of McCain's character as they are his issue positions as a negative for him. Thus, any image problems McCain may have within his own party may be due as much to his personality as it is to the stances he has taken on controversial issues.

Survey Methods

Results for this panel study are based on telephone interviews with 1,001 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 24-27, 2006. Respondents were randomly drawn from Gallup's nationally representative household panel, which was originally recruited through random selection methods. Other results are based on telephone interviews with randomly selected national samples of 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 23-25, 2006.

For results based on these samples of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

10. Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. How about -- [ITEM A READ FIRST, ITEMS B-I READ IN RANDOM ORDER, ITEM J READ LAST]?

H. John McCain