Would Active Clinton Involvement Have an Impact on Gore's Campaign?

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- What would be the impact on Al Gore's candidacy of more active support and campaigning by President Bill Clinton? CNN/USA Today/Gallup polling conducted over the weekend indicates that likely voters say that such involvement on the part of the president would have a more negative than positive consequence. Here are the results:

Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for Al Gore for president if President Clinton were to actively support him and campaign for him?
	More likely to vote for Al Gore	Less likely to vote for Al Gore	Would make no difference
All Likely Voters	17%	40	40
Republicans	2%	69	28
Independents	10%	45	37
Democrats	35%	12	52

It is not surprising that a significant majority of Republicans say that such Clinton involvement would make them less likely to vote for Gore -- given that most Republicans are highly unlikely to be voting for Gore in the first place. The impact on independents is perhaps more important --this group contains voters who are less fixed in their vote and therefore more likely to be influenced by campaign activities. Among this group, as can be seen, the impact is still negative. And, although most Democrats are going to vote for Gore, the impact of Clinton campaigning would appear to be relatively muted, as a majority of Democratic likely voters say it would make no difference in terms of whether or not they would vote for Gore. Thirty-five percent of Democrats say it would make them more likely to vote for the vice president, while 12% say it would make them less likely to support him. These data suggest that a Clinton campaign effort on Gore's behalf might not have the energizing effect on Democrats that some might have anticipated.

It should be pointed out that self-reports of the impact of such a hypothetical scenario as this are not necessarily predictive of the actual impact should such a situation occur. Perhaps most importantly, the exact way that Clinton involvement would play out is unknown, as is the way it would be handled by the press. Still, the data show that voters' initial reactions to the idea are more negative than positive.

A second question included in the weekend polling suggests that the existing ties between Gore and Clinton are not strongly harmful to the Democratic candidate. Sixty-four percent of all likely voters say that the ties that Gore has to Clinton have no effect on their opinion of Gore, 9% say the situation makes them more favorably predisposed to Gore, and 26% say that the Clinton ties make them less favorably predisposed. These numbers are very similar to the responses obtained when the same question was asked in January of this year.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,230 national adults, aged 18+, conducted October 20-22, 2000. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the sub-sample of 769 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2000 General Election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Do Vice President Al Gore's ties with President Bill Clinton make you feel more favorably toward Gore or less favorably toward Gore, or do they have no effect on your view of him?

 

	More favorably	Less favorably	No effect	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
Likely Voters
2000 Oct 20-22	9	26	64	1
Republicans	2	49	49	*
Independents	4	28	67	1
Democrats	18	5	76	1
2000 Aug 11-12	7	32	60	1
Republicans	2	53	45	*
Independents	4	33	63	*
Democrats	17	4	77	2
2000 Jul 25-26	13	38	48	1
Republicans	3	63	34	*
Independents	8	41	48	3
Democrats	28	7	65	*
2000 Jan 17-19	7	28	64	1
Republicans	3	48	48	1
Independents	5	29	65	1
Democrats	13	8	78	1
2000 Jan 7-10	9	29	62	*
Republicans	3	47	50	*
Independents	5	29	65	1
Democrats	17	11	71	1
Registered Voters
2000 Oct 20-22	9	25	65	1
Republicans	2	49	48	1
Independents	5	25	68	2
Democrats	18	5	76	1
2000 Aug 11-12	9	26	64	1
Republicans	3	51	46	*
Independents	7	23	69	1
Democrats	18	3	77	2
2000 Jul 25-26	15	32	52	1
Republicans	3	59	38	*
Independents	11	33	54	2
Democrats	29	6	64	1
2000 Jan 17-19	9	24	66	1
Republicans	4	42	53	1
Independents	7	23	69	1
Democrats	15	7	78	*
2000 Jan 7-10	9	25	65	1
Republicans	3	42	54	1
Independents	6	24	70	*
Democrats	18	11	70	1

Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for Al Gore for president if President Clinton were to actively support him and campaign for him?

 

	More likely	Less likely	NO DIFFERENCE (vol.)	No opinion
Likely Voters
(LV) 2000 Oct 20-22	17%	40	40	3
Registered Voters
(RV) 2000 Oct 20-22	18%	38	41	3
(RV) 1999 May 23-24	29%	53	17	1

*Less than 0.5%