Democrats Maintain Advantage in Fall Elections

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's "generic ballot" measure of voter preferences for the fall congressional elections remains about the same as two weeks ago, and has been in a virtual freeze frame since the spring. The latest Gallup survey, conducted Aug. 7-10, 2006, finds registered voters more likely to say they will support the Democratic candidate in their district rather than the Republican candidate by a nine-point margin, 50% to 41%.

The Democratic Party held narrower leads on this measure earlier this year, of six and seven points in January and early February. However, starting with a poll conducted Feb. 28-March 1, 2006, and in every survey thereafter, the Democratic lead has ranged from nine to 16 points.

All of the individual results since the Feb. 28-March 1, 2006, survey are within the margins of sampling error of each other. However, combining surveys by time periods affords greater reliability to the estimates, and reveals a possible shrinkage of the Democratic lead -- albeit slight -- since June.

Across the seven surveys conducted between late February and late June, the Democrats held a 13-point lead over the Republicans, 53% to 40%. In the three polls conducted since July, the Democratic lead has averaged 10 points, 51% to 41%.

The difference is not significant given the margin of sampling error for the aggregated survey figures; however, it is important to note that none of the last three surveys has shown a Democratic lead of greater than 11 points. If this pattern continues, it will represent a statistically significant narrowing of the gap between the two parties, but still a solid Democratic advantage.

Even a slight narrowing of the Democratic Party's lead among registered voters could be critical to the outcome of the fall elections. If the Republicans continue to trail by 10 or more points among registered voters, it would take an unprecedented GOP advantage in voter turnout for the Republican Party to prevail in the elections. However, if Republicans are able to maintain their normal midterm election advantage over the Democrats in voter turnout, they might be able to surmount an eight- or nine-point deficit among all registered voters to still win a majority of seats in Congress on Election Day.

In the past two midterm elections (1998 and 2002), Republicans were down by nine points and five points, respectively, on the generic ballot among registered voters in Gallup's final pre-election surveys. By virtue of Republicans' higher turnout rates, the Republicans still went on to win a slim majority of seats in Congress.

(Although the balance of power of Congress will be determined by 435 individual congressional elections, Gallup's "generic ballot" measure of national support for the two major parties -- more specifically, the final pre-election generic ballot based on likely voters -- has proven to be a strong predictor of the actual number of votes cast nationally for all Republican and Democratic candidates. This, in turn, bears a strong relationship to the number of seats won by each party.)

Congress Approval Remains Low

Another important gauge of the political winds leading into the fall elections is the approval rating of Congress. High approval would be a reassuring sign for the incumbent Republican majority, but the current low approval could signal that voters are in the mood for change.

Like the generic ballot, this measure has shown little movement for most of the year, continuing through the current survey. Twenty-seven percent of Americans approve and 65% disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job. This is slightly more positive than the May and April ratings, when only 21% and 23% approved, but is similar to the average of 26% approval since the start of the year.

Congress approval averaged 54% in 2002, when the GOP held on to its majority in that year's midterm election with a 24-seat seat margin. Average approval slipped to 42% in 2004 when President George W. Bush led the Republican ticket to victory at the national level. At 26%, the 2006 average approval is markedly lower, and the worst Gallup has recorded since the closing days of the Democratic majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in 1994.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,007 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 7-10, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

2. If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district -- [ROTATED: the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate]?

2A. (Asked of those who are undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate]?