Democrats Have Record Advantage for Handling "Most Important Problem"

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans' view of which political party can better handle the top problem facing the United States is now more positive for the Democrats than at any time in Gallup's 50 year trend on this indicator of party strength. According to Gallup's annual Governance survey, conducted Sep. 7-10, 2006, 49% of Americans name the Democrats as the preferred party to handle the nation's top problem, compared with 34% naming the Republicans. Last year's results to this question reflected more parity between the parties.

The Democrats have not led the Republicans on this measure by more than 10 points since January 1993, just before Bill Clinton took office as president. The Democrats have never previously been chosen by more than 46% of Americans as the preferred party to handle the nation's top problem.

There have been a few other occasions historically -- 1964, 1975-76 and 1993 -- when the Democrats held an advantage over the Republicans on this measure at least as high as the 15-point gap seen today. However, at those times a much higher proportion of Americans than today said "neither" or "both" parties could handle the top issue, thus keeping the percentage naming the Democrats well below 50%.

Iraq Still Seen as No. 1 Problem

The party preference question is a follow-up to another key trend asking Americans to name, without prompting, the most important problem facing the country today. Gallup updates this every month, and except for a 10-point decline in the percentage mentioning fuel prices to the lowest level in six months, the latest results are similar to those from August.

Iraq remains the problem mentioned most frequently, with 24% of Americans offering it as an answer. It is followed by terrorism and the economy, each with 11%. Immigration and dissatisfaction with government or political leaders are mentioned by 9% apiece, while other issues named by at least 5% of Americans include fuel/oil prices, unemployment/jobs and national security.

Numerous other issues are mentioned by smaller numbers of Americans, including these:

-- 4% mention problems with education
-- 4% name problems with health care, including high costs
-- 3% cite crime or violence
-- 2% say the environment or pollution
-- 2% mention natural disaster relief efforts

The complete results are displayed at the bottom of his article.

Democratic Party Perceived As Better on the Economy, Iraq

There are significant differences in views on the most important problem by partisanship. Democrats are much more likely to mention Iraq and the economy than are Republicans. On the other hand, Republicans are a great deal more likely to mention terrorism and immigration than are Democrats.

Given the fact that those who identify with a party are highly likely to prefer that party for handling issues, it is no surprise to find that there are substantial differences by partisanship in the choice of party better able to handle a problem.

As noted, 49% of respondents prefer the Democrats to handle the problem they name as most important, while 34% prefer the Republicans. However, Republicans are predictably preferred by an enormous margin (50 points) among those mentioning terrorism. Similarly, the Democratic Party does particularly well among respondents who cite the economy and Iraq as the nation's top problems - holding a 30-point or better advantage on these. Additionally, the Democrats are preferred by 19-point margin (50% to 31%) by the balance of respondents mentioning any other issue.

As the accompanying table shows, the Democrats have significantly expanded their advantage as the preferred party to handle the economy since September 2005, and have also improved their relative positioning on terrorism. Democrats have lost a little ground in terms of being preferred to handle Iraq, but have increased their net advantage on all remaining issues.

Party Perceived as Better to Handle Issue Named as Most Important
	Economy	Iraq	Terrorism	All other issues
Sep. 2005
Republican Party	30	24	71	40
Democratic Party	39	66	12	40
Democratic advantage	+9	+42	-59	0
Sep. 2006
Republican Party	28	24	72	31
Democratic Party	58	60	22	50
Democratic advantage	+30	+36	-50	+19
Net Change for Democratic Party	+21	-6	+9	+19

All of these changes result in more respondents choosing the Democratic Party as better able to handle the nation's perceived most important problem.

One might assume that the increase in respondents preferring the Democrats on this measure is due to major shifts since September 2005 in the nature of problems mentioned as most important. But, that is not the case. There have been only modest changes in perceptions of the nation's top problem over this period, and these seem to balance each other out.

Most notably, there has been an increase in the percentage of Americans naming the situation in Iraq (from 16% to 24%) -- a group mostly favorable to the Democrats. But at the same time there have been comparable increases in the percentage mentioning terrorism (from 6% to 11%) and immigration (from 2% to 9%) -- both issues generally positive for the Republicans.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,002 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 7-10, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

6. What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? [Open-ended]

7. Which political party do you think can do a better job of handling the problem you think is most important -- the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?

BASED ON -981-WHO NAME A MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM