GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- In the last CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll before the presidential debate Tuesday evening, Vice President Al Gore moved to an eight-point lead over his opponent Governor George W. Bush, with 49% of likely voters preferring Gore and 41% Bush. The poll was conducted Sunday through Tuesday. This included the evening of the debate, but most of those polled on Tuesday were interviewed before the debate began, with very few interviewed after it had ended. Combined with the two previous days of polling, the results mostly reflect the views of likely voters before any impact of the debate could be measured.
For the previous 10 days, the presidential race fluctuated within a narrow range of a Bush three-point lead to a Gore three-point lead, indicating a dead heat. But two days before the debate, as the news media shifted its focus from the Olympics to the presidential race and the upcoming encounter between the two major candidates, Gore's support began to edge upward. Whether the debate performances of Bush and Gore will affect these changes will not be known for sure until Saturday, when the results of the three-day tracking poll conducted after the end of the debate are announced.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,206 National Adults, aged 18+, conducted October 1-3, 2000. For results based on the total sample of National Adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points.
Results based on the subsample of 944 people who indicate they are registered to vote have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3 percentage points.
Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of -- 660 -- survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2000 General Election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of Likely Voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points.
Gallup's current likely voter estimation for 2000 assumes that 50% of the voting age population (VAP) will turn out to vote. (In 1996, turnout among the VAP was 49%. The average turnout rate in all presidential elections since 1980 is approximately 52%.)
Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included Al Gore and Joe Lieberman [LEE-ber-min] as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney [CHAIN-EE] as the Republican candidates, Pat Buchanan and Ezola [EE-zol-ah] Foster as the Reform Party candidates, and Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke as the Green Party candidates. Would you vote for -- [RANDOM ORDER: Al Gore and Joe Lieberman, the Democrats, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney the Republican candidate, Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster, the Reform Party candidates, (or) Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke, the Green Party candidates]?
As of today do you lean toward Gore and Lieberman, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, Buchanan and Foster, the Reform Party candidates, or Nader and LaDuke, the Green Party candidates?
|
Gore/ |
Bush/ |
Buchanan/ |
Nader/ |
OTHER |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Likely Voters |
||||||
|
2000 Oct 1-3 |
49 |
41 |
1 |
2 |
* |
7 |
|
2000 Sep 30-Oct 2 |
46 |
44 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
|
2000 Sep 29-Oct 1 |
45 |
45 |
1 |
3 |
* |
6 |
|
2000 Sep 28-30 |
45 |
45 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
5 |
|
2000 Sep 27-29 |
46 |
44 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
5 |
|
2000 Sep 26-28 |
44 |
46 |
* |
4 |
1 |
5 |
|
2000 Sep 25-27 |
46 |
46 |
1 |
3 |
* |
4 |
|
2000 Sep 24-26 |
44 |
46 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
|
2000 Sep 23-25 |
44 |
46 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
|
2000 Sep 22-24 |
44 |
47 |
1 |
2 |
* |
6 |
|
2000 Sep 21-23 |
46 |
47 |
1 |
1 |
* |
5 |
|
2000 Sep 20-22 |
48 |
45 |
* |
1 |
* |
6 |
|
2000 Sep 19-21 |
50 |
42 |
2 |
2 |
* |
4 |
|
2000 Sep 18-20 |
51 |
41 |
1 |
3 |
* |
4 |
|
2000 Sep 17-19 |
49 |
43 |
1 |
3 |
* |
4 |
|
2000 Sep 16-18 |
48 |
44 |
* |
2 |
1 |
5 |
|
2000 Sep 15-17 |
48 |
43 |
1 |
3 |
* |
5 |
|
2000 Sep 14-16 |
49 |
41 |
1 |
3 |
* |
6 |
|
2000 Sep 13-15 |
48 |
42 |
1 |
3 |
* |
6 |
|
2000 Sep 12-14 |
49 |
42 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
|
2000 Sep 11-13 |
49 |
42 |
1 |
3 |
* |
5 |
|
2000 Sep 10-12 |
49 |
41 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
|
2000 Sep 9-11 |
48 |
42 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
|
2000 Sep 8-10 |
49 |
42 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
|
2000 Sep 7-9 |
47 |
44 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
|
2000 Sep 6-8 |
45 |
46 |
1 |
2 |
* |
6 |
|
2000 Sep 5-7 |
46 |
43 |
1 |
3 |
* |
7 |
|
2000 Sep 4-6 |
47 |
44 |
* |
3 |
* |
6 |
|
2000 Aug 24-27 |
45 |
46 |
1 |
3 |
* |
5 |
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
47 |
46 |
2 |
3 |
* |
2 |
|
2000 Aug 11-12 † |
39 |
55 |
* |
2 |
* |
4 |
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
37 |
54 |
1 |
4 |
* |
4 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 ^ |
39 |
50 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
|
2000 Jul 14-16 |
43 |
45 |
3 |
5 |
* |
4 |
|
2000 Jun 23-25 |
38 |
50 |
2 |
6 |
0 |
4 |
|
2000 Jun 6-7 |
41 |
46 |
2 |
6 |
* |
5 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
41 |
47 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
|
^ Vice-Presidential candidates Cheney and LaDuke included on ballot beginning July 25-26, 2000 |
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|
† Vice-Presidential candidates Lieberman and Foster included on ballot beginning August 11-12, 2000 |
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(vol.) = Volunteered response
*Less than 0.5%