GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The race for president remains tight. New CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll results, based on interviewing conducted Monday through Wednesday of this week (September 5-7), show that Democratic candidate Al Gore leads Republican candidate George W. Bush among likely voters by a slim 47% to 44% margin. Green Party candidate Ralph Nader has 3% of the vote of likely voters.
The major change in the race occurred after the Democratic convention, which ended on August 17. Two Gallup polls conducted in late August had Gore and Bush tied at an average of 46% of the vote each. While the current tracking numbers show little substantive change from these August polls, they suggest that the campaign -- at least at this point -- has solidified into a tight race. This marks a significant difference from most polling conducted in the months prior to August, when Bush generally led Gore.
Gore and Bush are now receiving roughly equal percentages of the vote from Democrats and Republicans, respectively, but the volatile independents, who are much more likely to swing back and forth in their preferences, now tilt more towards Gore than Bush, by a 42% to 38% margin.
The gender gap continues to be pronounced, with Gore beating Bush by an overwhelming 57% to 33% margin among women, while Bush leads by an almost as large 55% to 37% margin among men.
Working Class Versus Middle Class
Al Gore focused on the workers of America in his convention acceptance speech, but in more recent days, according to press reports, the Democratic candidate has been emphasizing the "middle class" more than the working class. There is a big difference in the current presidential preferences of these two groups:
|
Presidential Vote by Self-Identified Class (Likely Voters) |
|||
|
Upper Class/Upper-Middle Class |
Middle Class |
Working Class |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Gore |
48 |
40 |
56 |
|
Bush |
46 |
49 |
34 |
|
Buchanan |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
Nader |
2 |
4 |
1 |
|
Other/Unsure |
4 |
6 |
9 |
|
Sample Size |
226 |
367 |
166 |
Those Americans who identify themselves as working class (about three out of ten) are strongly for Gore. Those who identify themselves as middle class (about half) are Bush supporters. The upper and upper middle classes are evenly split.
Implications for November?
There have been frequent assertions that "the candidate who is ahead on Labor Day goes on to win the election." A review of polling data over the last half century points to a more important conclusion: "the margin between candidates on Labor Day can change significantly by Election Day." Thus, the fact that the race is close at this point does not necessarily suggest that it will be close on Election Day.
There have been two races that were very close at about this point in the election cycle. In 1960, in an election with a number of similarities to the current one, Richard Nixon, the incumbent vice president, and John F. Kennedy were tied after Labor Day and remained tied all the way up to Election Day. JFK just barely beat Nixon in the popular vote --winning by less than one percentage point. In 1980, polling in August and in early September also showed the race as a dead heat between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. But, by Election Day, Reagan won by ten points.
The Debates
A good deal of attention has been paid in recent days to candidate squabbling over when, how, and where to hold presidential debates. The new poll suggests that the debates will not be a big factor for the majority of likely voters, 71% of whom say that the debates will not make much difference in their decision on their vote for president. About one out of four say the debates will make a difference. These numbers are similar to the responses to the same question when it was asked in the fall of 1992.
There are differences in the perceived importance of the debates by demographic category. Thirty-seven percent of younger women, age 18-49, say that the debates will make a difference to them -- significantly higher than older women or men of all ages. Perhaps not surprisingly, moderates and independents -- less firmly attached to a party or candidate -- are also more likely to say that the debates may matter. And, by a ten-point margin, 27% to 17%, Gore voters are more likely than Bush voters to say that debates will be important. One reason for the stronger reliance on debates among Gore voters may be the perception that he will do better. Forty-six percent of likely voters say that Gore would do better in debates, compared to just 33% who choose Bush. Gore voters are more loyal on this dimension. Some 75% of Gore voters say that Gore will do better. Only 58% of Bush voters say that Bush will do better.
Survey Methods
The results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,259 adults, 18 years and older, conducted September 4-6, 2000. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Results based on likely voters are based on the sub-sample of 777 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2000 General Election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of Likely Voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points.
Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included Al Gore and Joe Lieberman [LEE-ber-min] as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney [CHAIN-EE] as the Republican candidates, Pat Buchanan and Ezola [EE-zol-ah] Foster as the Reform Party candidates, and Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke as the Green Party candidates. Would you vote for -- [RANDOM ORDER: Al Gore and Joe Lieberman, the Democrats, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney the Republican candidate, Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster, the Reform Party candidates, (or) Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke, the Green Party candidates]?
As of today do you lean toward Gore and Lieberman, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, Buchanan and Foster, the Reform Party candidates, or Nader and LaDuke, the Green Party candidates?
|
Gore/ |
Bush/ |
Buchanan/ |
Nader/ |
Other |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Likely Voters |
||||||
|
2000 Sep 4-6 |
47 |
44 |
* |
3 |
* |
6 |
|
2000 Aug 24-27 |
45 |
46 |
1 |
3 |
* |
5 |
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
47 |
46 |
2 |
3 |
* |
2 |
|
2000 Aug 11-12 † |
39 |
55 |
* |
2 |
* |
4 |
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
37 |
54 |
1 |
4 |
* |
4 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 ^ |
39 |
50 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
|
2000 Jul 14-16 |
43 |
45 |
3 |
5 |
* |
4 |
|
2000 Jun 23-25 |
38 |
50 |
2 |
6 |
0 |
4 |
|
2000 Jun 6-7 |
41 |
46 |
2 |
6 |
* |
5 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
41 |
47 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
|
Registered Voters |
||||||
|
2000 Sep 4-6 |
47 |
41 |
1 |
3 |
* |
8 |
|
2000 Aug 24-27 |
48 |
41 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
6 |
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
48 |
44 |
1 |
3 |
* |
4 |
|
2000 Aug 11-12 † |
40 |
50 |
* |
3 |
* |
7 |
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
35 |
54 |
1 |
4 |
* |
6 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 ^ |
41 |
46 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
6 |
|
2000 Jul 14-16 |
41 |
43 |
3 |
6 |
* |
7 |
|
2000 Jun 23-25 |
40 |
47 |
3 |
6 |
0 |
4 |
|
2000 Jun 6-7 |
42 |
43 |
3 |
5 |
* |
7 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
41 |
43 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
7 |
|
^ vice presidential candidates Cheney and LaDuke included on ballot beginning July 25-26, 2000 |
||||||
|
† vice presidential candidates Lieberman and Foster included on ballot beginning August 11-12, 2000 |
||||||
Q.2/2A CONTINUED
|
Gore/ |
Bush/ |
Buchanan/ |
Nader/ |
Other |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Republicans (LV) |
||||||
|
2000 Sep 4-6 |
9 |
87 |
0 |
* |
* |
4 |
|
2000 Aug 24-27 |
8 |
88 |
* |
0 |
0 |
4 |
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
8 |
88 |
2 |
1 |
* |
1 |
|
2000 Aug 11-12 † |
5 |
92 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
3 |
94 |
0 |
1 |
* |
2 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 ^ |
2 |
92 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
|
2000 Jul 14-16 |
6 |
87 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
2 |
|
2000 Jun 23-25 |
7 |
89 |
2 |
* |
0 |
2 |
|
2000 Jun 6-7 |
6 |
88 |
2 |
2 |
* |
2 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
4 |
87 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Independents (LV) |
||||||
|
2000 Sep 4-6 |
42 |
38 |
1 |
7 |
* |
12 |
|
2000 Aug 24-27 |
36 |
44 |
1 |
11 |
1 |
7 |
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
43 |
43 |
4 |
6 |
* |
4 |
|
2000 Aug 11-12 † |
33 |
52 |
* |
6 |
1 |
8 |
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
26 |
53 |
3 |
10 |
* |
8 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 ^ |
28 |
49 |
2 |
9 |
1 |
11 |
|
2000 Jul 14-16 |
36 |
37 |
7 |
12 |
0 |
8 |
|
2000 Jun 23-25 |
29 |
54 |
3 |
10 |
0 |
4 |
|
2000 Jun 6-7 |
37 |
36 |
4 |
12 |
1 |
10 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
37 |
44 |
5 |
7 |
2 |
5 |
|
Democrats (LV) |
||||||
|
2000 Sep 4-6 |
86 |
8 |
* |
2 |
0 |
4 |
|
2000 Aug 24-27 |
85 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
* |
4 |
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
86 |
9 |
* |
3 |
0 |
2 |
|
2000 Aug 11-12 † |
84 |
11 |
* |
1 |
0 |
4 |
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
80 |
13 |
* |
3 |
0 |
4 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 ^ |
87 |
6 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
|
2000 Jul 14-16 |
86 |
7 |
* |
4 |
1 |
2 |
|
2000 Jun 23-25 |
77 |
7 |
2 |
8 |
0 |
6 |
|
2000 Jun 6-7 |
83 |
7 |
2 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
82 |
9 |
2 |
5 |
0 |
2 |
|
^ vice presidential candidates Cheney and LaDuke included on ballot beginning July 25-26, 2000 |
||||||
|
† vice presidential candidates Lieberman and Foster included on ballot beginning August 11-12, 2000 |
||||||
If Al Gore and Joe Lieberman were the Democratic Party's candidates and George W. Bush and Dick
Cheney were the Republican Party's candidates, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Al
Gore and Joe Lieberman, the Democrats (or) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Al Gore and Joe Lieberman, the Democrats (or) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans]?
|
Gore/ |
Bush/ |
|
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Likely Voters |
||||
|
(LV) 2000 Sep 4-6 |
48 |
47 |
0 |
5 |
|
(LV) 2000 Aug 24-27 |
47 |
49 |
* |
4 |
|
(LV) 2000 Aug 18-19 |
49 |
49 |
0 |
2 |
|
(LV) 2000 Aug 11-12 † |
40 |
56 |
0 |
4 |
|
(LV) 2000 Aug 4-5 |
40 |
56 |
* |
4 |
|
(LV) 2000 Jul 25-26 ^ |
40 |
54 |
1 |
5 |
|
(LV) 2000 Jul 14-16 |
46 |
48 |
1 |
5 |
|
(LV) 2000 Jul 6-9 |
41 |
50 |
1 |
8 |
|
(LV) 2000 Jun 23-25 |
39 |
52 |
1 |
8 |
|
(LV) 2000 Jun 6-7 |
44 |
48 |
1 |
7 |
|
(LV) 2000 May 23-24 |
42 |
49 |
1 |
8 |
|
(LV) 2000 Apr 28-30 |
44 |
49 |
1 |
6 |
|
(LV) 2000 Apr 7-9 |
41 |
50 |
1 |
8 |
|
(LV) 2000 Mar 30- Apr 2 |
45 |
46 |
1 |
8 |
|
(LV) 2000 Mar 10-12 |
43 |
49 |
1 |
7 |
|
(LV) 2000 Feb 25-27 |
43 |
52 |
* |
5 |
|
(LV) 2000 Feb 20-21 |
45 |
50 |
* |
5 |
|
(LV) 2000 Feb 14-15 |
45 |
50 |
* |
5 |
|
(LV) 2000 Feb 4-6 |
44 |
53 |
0 |
3 |
|
(LV) 2000 Jan 17-19 |
42 |
53 |
* |
5 |
|
(LV) 2000 Jan 13-16 |
38 |
57 |
1 |
4 |
|
(LV) 2000 Jan 7-10 |
43 |
52 |
* |
5 |
|
^ vice presidential candidates Cheney included on ballot beginning July 25-26, 2000 |
||||
|
† vice presidential candidate Lieberman included on ballot beginning August 11-12, 2000 |
||||
Q.3/3A CONTINUED
|
Gore/ |
Bush/ |
|
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Registered Voters |
||||
|
(RV) 2000 Sep 4-6 |
49 |
45 |
0 |
6 |
|
(RV) 2000 Aug 24-27 |
50 |
45 |
* |
5 |
|
(RV) 2000 Aug 18-19 |
50 |
47 |
0 |
3 |
|
(RV) 2000 Aug 11-12 † |
42 |
52 |
0 |
6 |
|
(RV) 2000 Aug 4-5 |
38 |
57 |
* |
5 |
|
(RV) 2000 Jul 25-26 ^ |
44 |
50 |
* |
6 |
|
(RV) 2000 Jul 14-16 |
45 |
47 |
1 |
7 |
|
(RV) 2000 Jul 6-9 |
44 |
45 |
1 |
10 |
|
(RV) 2000 Jun 23-25 |
42 |
48 |
1 |
9 |
|
(RV) 2000 Jun 6-7 |
44 |
46 |
1 |
9 |
|
(RV) 2000 May 23-24 |
41 |
49 |
1 |
9 |
|
(RV) 2000 Apr 28-30 |
45 |
46 |
1 |
8 |
|
(RV) 2000 Apr 7-9 |
41 |
48 |
1 |
10 |
|
(RV) 2000 Mar 30-Apr 2 |
45 |
44 |
1 |
10 |
|
(RV) 2000 Mar 10-12 |
44 |
49 |
1 |
6 |
|
(RV) 2000 Feb 25-27 |
44 |
51 |
* |
5 |
|
(RV) 2000 Feb 20-21 |
44 |
51 |
* |
5 |
|
(RV) 2000 Feb 14-15 |
46 |
48 |
* |
6 |
|
(RV) 2000 Feb 4-6 |
45 |
51 |
* |
4 |
|
(RV) 2000 Jan 25-26 |
44 |
51 |
-- |
5 |
|
(RV) 2000 Jan 17-19 |
41 |
53 |
* |
6 |
|
(RV) 2000 Jan 13-16 |
41 |
52 |
1 |
6 |
|
(RV) 2000 Jan 7-10 |
44 |
51 |
* |
5 |
|
(RV) 1999 Dec 20-21 |
42 |
53 |
* |
5 |
|
(RV) 1999 Dec 9-12 |
42 |
55 |
* |
3 |
|
(RV) 1999 Nov 18-21 |
40 |
56 |
* |
4 |
|
^ vice presidential candidates Cheney included on ballot beginning July 25-26, 2000 |
||||
|
† vice presidential candidate Lieberman included on ballot beginning August 11-12, 2000 |
||||
*Less than 0.5%