Public Sees Victory in Iraq as Elusive for U.S.

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest USA Today/Gallup poll update on Americans' attitudes toward the Iraq war shows a high level of pessimism for a U.S. victory in Iraq. Also, by a nearly 2-to-1 margin, the public says the costs of succeeding in Iraq outweigh the benefits that would come from doing so. Americans are also more likely to believe that the war will, in the long run, make things worse rather than better in a number of areas. Basic support for the war continues to be more negative than positive, particularly regarding the question of whether it was worth going to war. 

Victory in Iraq

According to the Dec. 8-10, 2006 poll, 64% of Americans say neither the United States and its allies nor the insurgents in Iraq are winning the war, while the rest divide about evenly between saying the United States (16%) and the insurgents (17%) are winning. Even though a plurality, if not the majority, of Americans has viewed the war as a stalemate for some time, in recent months, assessments that the United States is winning have declined considerably. As recently as February of this year, Americans said the United States was winning by a better than 3-to-1 margin over the insurgents.

The recent Iraq Study Group -- a group led by James Baker and Lee Hamilton -- report was notable in that it did not call for a U.S. "victory" in Iraq. The Bush administration continues to hold out victory as the goal. While a majority of Americans believe a U.S. victory in Iraq is possible, only about one in three thinks it is likely. Just 35% of Americans now believe the United States will definitely (14%) or probably (21%) win the war in Iraq -- the lowest percentage Gallup has measured on this question since it was first asked in September 2005. An additional 25% of Americans believe the United States can win the war, but do not think it will. Thirty-six percent believe the United States cannot win the war.

One increasingly difficult question for the government to answer is, even if the United States can win the war, should it attempt to do so? That is, do the benefits the United States would realize from succeeding in Iraq justify the high costs necessary to do so? The poll finds that most Americans think not -- 64% say the costs of succeeding outweigh the benefits while 33% believe the benefits outweigh the costs.

That may stem from the public's view that many of the possible benefits from winning the war will not be realized in the long run. By sizeable margins, Americans say that the image of the United States around the world, relations between the United States and Middle East governments, and peace and stability in the Middle Easts will be worse off rather than better off as a result of the war. Also, by smaller margins, more say the people of the United States and the war on terrorism will be worse off because of the war than better off. Americans are divided as to whether the Iraqi people will be better (38%) or worse off (35%) in the long run, but believe the U.S. military will be better off. 

Do you think each of the following will, in the long run, be -- [ROTATED: better off, about the same, or worse off] -- as a result of the war with Iraq? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

Troops in Iraq

The Iraq Study Group called for most U.S. troops to leave Iraq by early 2008, an idea endorsed by 74% of respondents in the poll. The Bush administration is still considering other options on Iraq, so the future of the United States' military presence there is very much an open question.

The public predicts the United States will have a significant number of troops in Iraq for a year or longer -- 38% say for one to two years and 42% say longer than two years. But Americans' wishes on the subject are very different. Only 39% believe the United States should have troops in Iraq for a year or longer. The majority says the United States should have troops in Iraq for less than six months (32%) or six months to a year (25%).

Basic Support for the War

Not surprisingly, Americans are more likely to express opposition to -- rather than support for -- the war based on two frequently updated Gallup measures. Americans are slightly more negative in their evaluation of the war when asked whether it was "worth it" than when they are asked if the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq.

Fifty-three percent of Americans say the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, while 45% disagree. A slight majority of Americans have typically said the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq over the course of this year. Opposition to the war on this measure has reached as high as 59% (in September 2005) while support peaked at 75% during the initial stages of the war in March 2003. 

Just 37% of Americans say it was "worth going to war in Iraq" while 62% say it was not worth it. That matches the lowest point for support on this measure.  

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,009 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Dec. 8-10, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Q.6-7 SPLIT SAMPLED

6. In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?

            BASED ON  505 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

7. All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not? 

Q.8-9 SPLIT SAMPLED

8. Who do you think is currently winning the war in Iraq -- the U.S. and its allies, the insurgents in Iraq, or neither side?

            BASED ON 505 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

9. Which comes closer to your view about the war in Iraq -- [ROTATED: you think the U.S. will definitely win the war in Iraq, you think the U.S. will probably win the war in Iraq, you think the U.S. can win the war in Iraq, but you don't think it will win, (or) you do not think the U.S. can win the war in Iraq]?

            BASED ON 504 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

10. Based on what you have heard or read, do you, personally, think Iraq is -- or is not -- in a state of civil war right now?

11. Just your best guess, how much longer do you think the U.S. will have a significant number of troops in Iraq -- less than six months, six months to a year, one to two years, or longer than two years?

12. How much longer do you think the U.S. should have a significant number of troops in Iraq -- less than six months, six months to a year, one to two years, or longer than two years?

13. Do you think each of the following will, in the long run, be -- [ROTATED: better off, about the same, or worse off]-- as a result of the war with Iraq? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

14. How important is it that the United States succeeds in Iraq -- extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not that important?

15. Now thinking about the benefits to the U.S. of succeeding in Iraq versus the costs the U.S. would have to bear to achieve them, do you think -- [ROTATED: the benefits outweigh the costs, (or) the costs outweigh the benefits]?