Public's Perceptions About Iraq Keeping Down Bush's Job Approval Rating

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush's latest job approval rating from the American people remains about where it stood a week earlier -- notable because it means his recent televised national address about Iraq did nothing to repair his public image. Bush's approval rating for his handling of Iraq, specifically, is even lower, something that appears to be preventing Bush from getting a broader benefit from the fact that Americans have grown a bit more favorable about his handling of the economy, and about economic conditions more generally.

Where's the Traction?

According to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Jan. 12-14, 2007, 34% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing, while 63% disapprove. This is similar to the 37% approve-59% disapprove ratings he received in Gallup's Jan. 5-7, 2007, survey.

Not only is Bush's overall job approval rating steady, public approval of his handling of Iraq is unchanged. Today, 28% approve of Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq, similar to the 26% found in the last poll. Seven in 10 Americans disapprove of how Bush is handling the Iraq situation.

The latest poll updates Bush's job performance in three additional areas: foreign affairs, the economy, and terrorism. Bush receives his best reviews on terrorism and the economy, for which he receives 46% and 45% approval, respectively. Still, a majority of Americans disapprove of Bush's handling of these issues. Approval of Bush's handling of foreign affairs, at 36%, is similar to his overall job approval rating, while approval of his job handling the situation in Iraq is lower (28%).

Iraq and Economy Ratings Take Different Paths

Gallup's trends for these measures reveal a notable shift in the past several months. For at least the past two years, going back to January 2005, changes in public approval of Bush on the economy and on Iraq closely paralleled changes in his overall approval ratings. However, since late August 2006, Bush's approval rating on the economy has improved slightly -- from 39% to 45% -- while his overall job approval and Iraq ratings have each declined by eight points. Bush's approval rating on Iraq has fallen from 36% to 28% and his overall approval rating has fallen from 42% to 34%.

This divergence clearly suggests that Americans' recent evaluations of Bush's overall job performance are now tied more closely with public perceptions about Iraq than with their perceptions of how he is handling the economy.

The recent improvement in Bush's economic score is also seen in Gallup's monthly consumer confidence trends, last updated in early December 2006. Between August and December, the percentage of Americans describing economic conditions as "excellent" or "good" rose from 36% to 42% and the percentage perceiving the economy getting better rose from 22% to 35%.

Nevertheless, Gallup trends show a slight decline in Bush's average monthly overall job approval rating during this period -- from 40% in August 2006 and 42% in September 2006, to the 36%-37% range from October 2006 through this month.

Unlike the shift seen with the economy, the correlations between Bush's overall job approval rating and his approval ratings for foreign affairs and terrorism have remained fairly consistent during the past two years -- with all three measures following similar paths.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,003 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 12-14, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

The economy

Foreign affairs

The situation in Iraq

Terrorism