Gore Gains in Race for President as Result of Democratic Convention

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted August 18-19, finds Al Gore earning an eight-point "bounce" in voter support following last week's Democratic National Convention in Los Angeles, erasing the advantage Bush had enjoyed as a result of Republican convention coverage in recent weeks. Gore now leads Bush by one point among Americans most likely to vote in November, 47% to 46%, with 3% of the vote going to Green Party nominee Ralph Nader and 2% to Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan. Gallup's previous survey of likely voters -- conducted after the Republican convention in Philadelphia concluded, but before the Democratic convention began -- showed Bush leading Gore by 55% to 39%.

Gore's recent eight-point increase from 39% to 47% compares with a four-point bounce for Bush following the GOP convention earlier this month. Gore's increase in support also compares favorably with candidate post-convention bounces historically. Gallup polls going back to 1964 show that most presidential candidates enjoy an increase in the percentage of voters supporting them immediately after their national conventions, compared to polls conducted just prior to the event. While there has been wide variation in the size of this increase in different years -- ranging from two to 16 points -- the average bounce across all of the Republican and Democratic conventions held since 1964 is roughly six percentage points.

The closeness of the race today is a change from polling in recent weeks, during which Bush led Gore by considerable margins, ranging from 11 to 17 points. However, the structure of the race today, with the candidates within one to two points of each other in voter support, is not unprecedented and figured to tighten once both candidates had stated their cases to the public at their respective conventions. A mid-July survey found the race virtually tied, with 45% of likely voters supporting Bush and 43% backing Gore. The race was similarly close at several points during the party primary season between March and June.

Independents and Women Fuel Gore's Surge
One striking aspect of Gallup's post-Democratic-convention survey this year is that nearly all of Gore's gains in voter support over the past week were made among two groups that Gallup has previously indicated are critical to his success in November: independent voters and women. Volatility in the candidate preferences of both of these groups has accounted for most of the volatility in the overall structure of the race since the convention season began last month.

There was much talk last week about how the Democratic convention seemed oriented at solidifying Gore's support among the base of the Democratic Party, possibly as a defensive measure against losing some votes of traditional Democrats and liberals to Ralph Nader. However, the new poll shows that the convention had particular appeal to independent voters, with support for Gore increasing among this group by 10 points, compared to just two points among Democrats and three points among Republicans. Gore and Bush now enjoy nearly equal levels of support from members of their own parties: 86% of Democrats support Gore and 88% of Republicans support Bush. They are now tied at 43% among independents.

 

Party Support for Bush vs. Gore in Four-Way Trial Heats (Support for Nader and Buchanan not shown)
		Bush Support From Republicans	Gore Support From Independents	Gore Support From Democrats
August 18-19	Post-Democratic Convention	88%	43%	86%
August 11-12	Pre-Democratic Convention	92	33	84
August 4-5	Post-GOP Convention	94	26	80
July 25-26	Pre-GOP Convention	92	28	87
July 14-16	Pre-Convention Period	87	36	86

The candidate preference of men has changed relatively little over the past several weeks, with Bush consistently leading Gore among men by roughly 20 percentage points. This pattern among male voters remains the same in the new survey. Over the same period, the vote choice of women has varied considerably, ranging from a 12-point lead for Bush among women immediately after the Republican convention concluded to a 22-point advantage for Gore among women in the current poll, 58% vs. 36%. Most recently, Gore increased his support among women from 42% in Gallup's August 11-12 pre-Democratic-convention survey to 58% today. Over the same time, support for Gore among men increased by just two points, from 35% to 37%.

 

Gender Support for Bush vs. Gore in Four-Way Trial Heats (Support for Nader and Buchanan not shown)
		Bush Lead Among Men	Gore Lead Among Women
August 18-19	Post-Democratic Convention	19 points	22 points
August 11-12	Pre-Democratic Convention	23	-9
August 4-5	Post-GOP Convention	23	-12
July 25-26	Pre-GOP Convention	23	2
July 14-16	Pre-Convention Period	12	9

Gore Gains Among Women on Issues, Character
An analysis of Gore's image on a host of personal characteristics and policy issues reveals that the vice president made significant gains among women on a variety of issues coming out of the Democratic convention. On a question asking whether Bush or Gore would better handle each of a variety of issues, Gore picked up roughly 20 points among women on most issues, including Social Security, health care, the economy and the budget surplus. He made much smaller gains among women on the issues of guns and abortion. Similarly, Gore gained about 20 points among women in a comparison with Bush on most character traits evaluated, including the perceptions that he shares their values, is a strong and decisive leader, is someone they would be proud to have as president, and agrees with them on most issues.

Apart from convention-period changes in Gore's issues and characteristics ratings among women, however, Gore's highest ratings from women today include his overall image, with 71% of women viewing him favorably, compared to just 51% of men. Gore's highest issue rating from women comes on health care, for which 63% say he would do the better job, compared to just 29% who choose Bush. Gore also receives extremely high ratings among women for having the leadership qualities necessary in a president: seventy-one percent feel this way about Gore.

Two Conventions Have Similar Impacts on Americans
Almost identical percentages of Americans report having watched each of the major party conventions in recent weeks. A little over half of Americans, 55%, report having watched a great deal or some of the Democratic convention coverage on TV, compared to 56% who reported this level of attention to the Republican convention earlier this month.

Gore picked up a slightly bigger bounce from the Democratic convention than did George W. Bush from the Republican convention, and the new poll shows Americans rated the impact of the Democratic convention on their image of the Democratic party slightly more positively than was the case for the Republican convention. Close to half of national adults, 49%, say they now have a more favorable view of the Democratic Party as a result of the Democratic convention, while only 24% have a less favorable view. By comparison, 43% of Americans felt more favorably about the Republican Party following its convention and only 25% less favorably.

Neither of the candidates' acceptance speeches delivered on the final night of their respective conventions emerges as particularly strong, with Americans giving them positive but similar ratings that also mirror what losing Republican nominee Bob Dole received in 1996. About half of Americans, 52%, describe Gore's acceptance speech last week as "excellent" or "good" -- similar to the 51% who gave Bush this review earlier this month, and the 52% who rated Dole's speech this way in 1996. Only one in five rated Gore's or Bush's speech this year in more critical terms, as either "just okay" or "poor." Consistent with these findings, similar percentages of Americans surveyed after each convention this year said that Gore's and Bush's speeches made them more, rather than less, likely to vote for that candidate in the fall.

The choice of Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman as Gore's running mate appears to be slightly more positive for the Democratic ticket than did Bush's choice of former Defense Secretary Dick Cheney -- although neither stands out as particularly strong or weak in historical terms. Fifty-four percent of Americans say they are more likely to vote for Gore as a result of his choosing Lieberman, while only 22% say they are less likely. By contrast, slightly fewer Americans are more likely to vote for Bush as a result of his choosing Cheney, 49%, while 30% say they are less likely.

Historically, both Lieberman and Cheney appear to bring more to their respective tickets than did either Dan Quayle for the Republicans in 1988 or Geraldine Ferraro for the Democrats in 1984. They are about as helpful as Lloyd Bentsen was for the Democrats in 1988, but less positive than Al Gore was when he was chosen by Bill Clinton to be Clinton's running mate in 1992 or Jack Kemp, when he was chosen by Bob Dole to be Dole's running mate in 1996.

Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,043 adults, 18 years and older, conducted August 18-19, 2000. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included Al Gore and Joe Lieberman as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster as the Reform Party candidates, and Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke as the Green Party candidates. Would you vote for -- [RANDOM ORDER: Al Gore and Joe Lieberman, the Democrats, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney the Republican candidates, Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster, the Reform Party candidates, (or) Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke, the Green Party candidates]?

(If Unsure) As of today do you lean toward Gore and Lieberman, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, Buchanan and Foster, the Reform Party candidates, or Nader and LaDuke, the Green Party candidates?

 

	Gore/ Lieberman		Bush/ Cheney	Buchanan/ Foster	Nader/ LaDuke	OTHER (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%		%	%	%	%
Likely Voters
2000 Aug 18-19	47	46		2	3	*	2
2000 Aug 11-12 †	39	55		*	2	*	4
2000 Aug 4-5	37	54		1	4	*	4
2000 Jul 25-26 ^	39	50		1	4	1	5
2000 Jul 14-16	43	45		3	5	*	4
2000 Jun 23-25	38	50		2	6	0	4
2000 Jun 6-7	41	46		2	6	*	5
2000 Apr 28-30	41	47		4	4	1	3
Registered Voters
2000 Aug 18-19	48	44		1	3	*	4
2000 Aug 11-12 †	40	50		*	3	*	7
2000 Aug 4-5	35	54		1	4	*	6
2000 Jul 25-26 ^	41	46		2	4	1	6
2000 Jul 14-16	41	43		3	6	*	7
2000 Jun 23-25	40	47		3	6	0	4
2000 Jun 6-7	42	43		3	5	*	7
2000 Apr 28-30	41	43		4	4	1	7
^ Vice presidential candidates Cheney and LaDuke included on ballot beginning July 25-26, 2000
† Vice presidential candidates Lieberman and Foster included on ballot beginning August 11-12, 2000

From what you have seen or heard about this week's Democratic Convention, do you have a more favorable or a less favorable opinion of the Democratic Party?

 

NOTE: Historical Trends Refer to Attitudes Toward the Respective Party of Each Convention
	More favorable	Less favorable	NO CHANGE (vol.)	HAVEN'T FOLLOWED CONVENTION (vol.)	No opinion
Post-Dem. Convention
2000 Aug 18-19	49%	24	14	11	2
Post-GOP Convention
2000 Aug 4-5	43%	25	15	14	3
Mid-GOP Conventions
1996 Aug 14-15	36%	28	19	13	4
1992 Aug 19-20	28%	35	18	16	3

From what you have heard or read, how would you rate Al Gore's acceptance speech at the Democratic Convention on Thursday night, as -- excellent, good, just okay, poor, or terrible?

 

	Excellent	Good	Just okay	Poor	Terrible	DIDN'T SEE (vol.)	No opinion
2000 Aug 18-19	19%	33	18	4	2	23	1
2000 Aug 4-5 (Bush) †	19%	32	17	3	1	26	2
1996 Aug 16-18 (Dole) ^	20%	32	21	5	2	17	3
† Previous Wording: George W. Bush's acceptance speech
^ Previous Wording: Bob Dole's acceptance speech

From what you have heard or read, how would you rate Bill Clinton's speech at the Democratic Convention on Monday night, as -- excellent, good, just okay, poor, or terrible?

 

	Excellent	Good	Just okay	Poor	Terrible	DIDN'T SEE (vol.)	No opinion
2000 Aug 18-19	19%	25	16	8	5	26	1

Please tell me whether each of the following makes you more likely or less likely to vote for Al Gore. How about … [RANDOM ORDER]?

A. What you saw or read of this week's Democratic convention in Los Angeles

 

	More likely	Less likely	NO DIFFERENCE (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
Post-Dem. Convention 2000
2000 Aug 18-19	43	28	19	10
Post-GOP Convention 2000 (Bush)
2000 Aug 4-5	44	27	15	14
Post-GOP Convention 1996 (Dole)	45	34	13	8
Post-Dem. Convention 1992 (Clinton)	60	15	17	8
Post-GOP Convention 1988 (Bush)	43	27	16	14
Post-Dem. Convention 1988 (Dukakis)	56	21	9	14
Post-Dem. Convention 1984 (Mondale)	45	29	12	14

B. Gore's choice of Joe Lieberman as his running mate

 

	More likely	Less likely	NO DIFFERENCE (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
Post-Dem. Convention 2000
2000 Aug 18-19	54	22	19	5
Post-GOP Convention 2000 (Cheney)
2000 Aug 4-5	49	30	13	8
Post-GOP Convention 1996 (Kemp)	60	23	12	5
Post-Dem Convention 1992 (Gore)	73	10	13	4
Post-GOP Convention 1988 (Quayle)	36	33	16	15
Post-Dem Convention 1988 (Bentsen)	48	28	10	14
Post-Dem Convention 1984 (Ferraro)	26	18	52	4

C. Gore's acceptance speech at the Democratic convention

 

	More likely	Less likely	NO DIFFERENCE (vol.)	No opinion
Post-Dem. Convention 2000
2000 Aug 18-19	44%	23	19	14
Post-GOP Convention 2000 (Bush)
2000 Aug 4-5	45%	21	16	18

At this week's convention do you think the Democrats maintained the right balance between criticizing the Republicans and saying positive things about themselves? Or do you think they spent too much time criticizing the Republicans?

 

	Maintained right balance	Too much time criticizing	No opinion
Post-Dem Convention 2000
2000 Aug 18-19	47%	34	19
Post-GOP Convention 2000
2000 Aug 4-5	45%	38	17
Post-GOP Convention 1992
1992 Aug 19-20	26%	56	18

How much, if any, of the Democratic convention did you watch on TV this week -- none of it, very little, some of it, or a great deal?

(If none) Did you happen to see, hear, or read any news coverage of the Democratic convention?

 

	2000 Aug 18-19 (Dem.)	2000 Aug 4-5 (GOP)	1996 Aug 14-15 (GOP)
Watched great deal	18%	19%	16%
Watched some	37	37	29
Watched very little	25	23	31
Watched none	20	21	24
Yes, heard news coverage	(7)	(7)	(11)
No, did not hear news coverage	(13)	(14)	(13)
No opinion	*	*	0

* Less than 0.5%
(vol.) Volunteered response