GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- One critical measure at this stage of the election campaign is the traditional trial heat that indicates who Democrats and Republicans want to be their party's nominee for president. A second dimension to the election puzzle is the images of the candidates in the eyes of voters, regardless of whether voters say they would want to vote for them at this point. This is particularly interesting and important at this early stage of the campaign because several candidates began the year with relatively low name indentifaction, meaning that they are still in the process of developing images as the campaign year progresses.
A review of image trends among the major candidates shows that two candidates -- Hillary Clinton and Al Gore -- have almost universal name identification. At the other end of the spectrum, only 42% of Americans know enough about Mitt Romney to have an opinion. The rest of the candidates are known well enough to be evaluated by more than three-quarters of the public. Three candidates have very positive images: Rudy Giuliani, Barack Obama, and John McCain. Al Gore, Hillary Clinton, and John Edwards have more moderately positive ratings. Mitt Romney is just about as likely to be seen unfavorably as favorably by those who know him. Newt Gingrich is the only candidate tested with a significantly unfavorable image.
Name ID
Here's a look at where the overall name identification of the major candidates from both parties stand as of early March, based on the percentage who know enough about a candidate to have an opinion.
Key points:
- Hillary Clinton and Al Gore have near universal name identification.
- Mitt Romney is still unknown to over half of Americans.
- The other five candidates have name IDs between 76% and 85%.
The biggest change in recent months has come in relationship to Barack Obama, whose name ID has risen from 53% in December to 76% today.
Mitt Romney, on the other hand, has seen relatively little growth in his recognition among Americans, rising only 11 percentage points since December. This comes despite the fact that he announced his run for president on Feb. 13 in Michigan -- where his father, George W. Romney, sat as governor from 1963 to 1969.
Favorable and Unfavorable Ratings
The overall picture of favorable and unfavorable ratings of the candidates among the general population is as follows:
The candidates can be grouped as follows:
I. Very well-liked candidates with high favorable to unfavorable ratios of more than two to one:
- Rudy Giuliani
- Barack Obama
- John McCain
II. Moderately well-liked candidates with more positive than negative ratios:
- Al Gore
- Hillary Clinton
- John Edwards
III. Candidate who essentially breaks even between favorable and unfavorable impressions:
- Mitt Romney
IV. Disliked candidate with significantly higher unfavorable rating than favorable:
- Newt Gingrich
Most of these candidates have held on to roughly the same images in recent months. Barack Obama in particular has increased his favorable ratings while his unfavorable ratings have remained low as he has become better known.
Mitt Romney, on the other hand, has seen some changes over time in the way the public views him. His initially positive image has become slightly less so. Romney moved from a net positive position in December (albeit among the small group who were familiar with him), to a point in early February where his favorables and unfavorables were evenly matched, to the current situation in which his favorables are slightly higher than his unfavorables.
Candidate Images Among Partisans
Of crucial importance at this point in the campaign is each candidate's standing among members of his or her own party.
This table displays the ratings given to the four major Democratic candidates among both the general population and among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.
Democratic Candidate Images
|
||||||
National
|
Democrats/
|
|||||
Favor-
|
Unfavor-
|
No
|
Favor-
|
Unfavor-
|
No
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Hillary Clinton |
54 |
42 |
3 |
80 |
16 |
4 |
Barack Obama |
58 |
18 |
24 |
68 |
9 |
23 |
Al Gore |
55 |
39 |
6 |
78 |
17 |
5 |
John Edwards |
51 |
28 |
21 |
63 |
15 |
22 |
One key in this table is the potential for change for candidates Obama and Edwards. Obama is running second in the trial heats behind Clinton, even though almost one-fourth of Democrats don't know enough about him to rate him. Edwards is in fourth place, but has over one-fifth of the Democratic population who don't know enough about him to rate him.
The major change over time in these ratings of the candidates among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents is the increase in net favorable ratings (percentage favorable minus percentage unfavorable) for Obama and Gore. Edwards' net favorable rating has declined over time.
Here is how the favorable ratings of the four major Republican candidates among Republicans rank.
Republican Candidate Images
|
||||||
National
|
Republicans/
|
|||||
Favor-
|
Unfavor-
|
No
|
Favor-
|
Unfavor-
|
No
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
64 |
21 |
15 |
78 |
10 |
11 |
John McCain |
57 |
25 |
18 |
67 |
19 |
14 |
Mitt Romney |
23 |
19 |
58 |
37 |
11 |
52 |
Newt Gingrich |
29 |
49 |
22 |
52 |
30 |
18 |
Mitt Romney stands out as the candidate who is significantly less well known than the others. Over half of Republicans say they don't know enough about Romney to be able to rate him. His image among those Republicans who do know him is quite positive. This suggests the possibility that if Romney maintains his net positive image among Republicans as the campaign progresses, he could be in a position to become more of a factor in the presidential nomination picture.
There has not been a lot of change over time in the net favorable ratings of the Republican candidates among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Giuliani had a somewhat more positive image in the late fall of 2006 than he does now, but his image has been steady in the three polls conducted this year.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,010 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 2-4, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.