Americans Forecast Similar Outcomes Regardless of Whether Bush or Gore Elected

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Vice President Al Gore and Texas Governor George W. Bush often suggest that if the other is elected president next November, the world will be a far, far worse place than if the reverse outcome prevails, and their supporters tend to agree. In a recent Gallup poll, conducted June 6-7, Americans were asked to indicate the likelihood that several undesirable consequences would result from the election of Bush or Gore. And, not surprisingly, supporters of each candidate are more likely to say that negative consequences will follow from the election of their candidate's opponent than from the election of the candidate they prefer.

Still, there is not a perfect correlation between Americans' candidate preferences and their assessment of the potential negative consequences of a Bush or Gore presidency. The poll shows that while the net differences in the ratings of the two candidates are small, reflecting the close electoral race (with Bush leading Gore by four percentage points, 48% to 44%), there are some noteworthy tendencies. Americans are somewhat more likely to predict a decline in moral values and a less sound Social Security system under a Gore rather than a Bush presidency. And Americans are also slightly more likely to predict an unbalanced budget and an inappropriate approach to dealing with the environment under a Bush rather than a Gore presidency.

In the poll, half the sample was asked to predict the possible consequences of a Gore victory in November, and the other half was asked to predict the same consequences of a Bush victory. In the table below, the results are compared for each candidate. Note that 47% of respondents say that under a Bush presidency, it is either very or somewhat likely that the budget would get out of balance, with a return to deficit spending. Separately, 41% say the same about a Gore presidency -- suggesting that Gore is viewed slightly more favorably (6 percentage points) on that issue than is Bush.

Similarly, Gore is viewed more favorably than Bush on dealing with the environment, since 46% predict Bush will not protect the environment enough, while a smaller number -- 40% -- predict Gore will go too far. On mishandling the economy and being too extreme in their choice of political activists, the candidates receive ratings that are very close, with Gore seen as less negative by just 4 and 3 percentage points respectively.

On two items, the differences in candidate ratings appear more substantial, and both favor Bush. The Texas governor is viewed as less likely to cause a decline in moral values than the vice president, by a 12-point margin -- with 25% saying a moral decline would be likely under a Bush presidency, but 37% saying that about a Gore presidency. And Bush is also viewed as less likely to preside over a deteriorating Social Security system: 38% say the system would become less sound under Bush, while 46% say that would happen under Gore. (It should be noted that this poll was conducted shortly after Bush had announced his new plan for partial privatization of Social Security, widely supported by the public, but before Gore had announced his counter proposal for government-assisted retirement investment accounts.)

 

Possible Negative Consequences	Percent who say the consequence would be "very" or "somewhat" likely to occur under aGore or Bush presidency
	Gore Presidency (%)	Bush Presidency (%)
The budget would get out of balance, with a return to deficit spending	41	47
Gore would go too far/Bush would not go far enough -- in protecting the environment	40	46
The economy would get worse	35	39
Liberal activists [Gore] / Conservative activists [Bush] -- will have too much influence in the government	47	50
There would be new investigations similar to the ones of the Clinton administration	42	42
The Social Security system would become less financially sound	46	38
Moral values in the country would decline	37	25

In the four items where Gore has a slight advantage, the net difference is the result of Gore's supporters giving Bush a far more negative rating than Bush's supporters give to Gore. For example, 59% of Bush's supporters say the budget would become unbalanced if Gore were elected president, but 72% of Gore's supporters say that about Bush. A similar pattern is found on the other three items that show Gore with a slight lead over Bush. In each of those cases, Bush's supporters give Bush about the same rating as Gore's supporters give to Gore.

By contrast, on the two items where Bush enjoys a lead over Gore, the pattern is different. On the Social Security issue, for example, the net difference in favor of Bush is the results of Gore's own supporters giving the vice president a more negative rating than Bush's supporters give the Texas governor. Just 16% of Bush's supporters say the Social Security system will become less sound under Bush, but 35% of Gore's own supporters say the system will become less sound under Gore.

These results are an indication that Gore has not solidified his own electoral base. While the partisan division in the country is about equal, one reason for Gore's continual runner-up status is that he has not inspired his own "natural" constituency to the same extent that Bush has inspired his constituency.

Survey Methods
The results reported here are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,059 adults, 18 years and older, conducted June 6-7, 2000. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. The results based on half the sample (N=491 for Form A, N=568 for Form B) have a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

If Al Gore/George W. Bush is elected president, how likely is it that each of the following would happen -- very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely or not at all likely. How about . . . [ROTATED]

GORE RESULTS BASED ON -- 491 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A; +/- 5 PERCENTAGE POINTS

BUSH RESULTS BASED ON -- 568 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B; +/- 5 PERCENTAGE POINTS

There would be new investigations similar to the ones of the Clinton administration.

	Very likely	Somewhat likely	Not too likely	Not at all likely	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Gore	23	19	30	18	10
Bush	17	25	29	21	8

The economy would get worse.

	Very likely	Somewhat likely	Not too likely	Not at all likely	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Gore	12	23	40	17	8
Bush	15	24	35	19	7

The budget would get out of balance, with a return to deficit spending.

	Very likely	Somewhat likely	Not too likely	Not at all likely	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Gore	18	23	33	14	12
Bush	19	28	28	16	9

The Social Security system would become less financially sound.

	Very likely	Somewhat likely	Not too likely	Not at all likely	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Gore	18	28	31	13	10
Bush	17	21	35	18	9

Gore would go too far in protecting the environment/Bush would not go far enough in protecting the environment.

	Very likely	Somewhat likely	Not too likely	Not at all likely	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Gore	20	20	35	17	8
Bush	22	24	26	17	11

Moral values in the country would decline.

	Very likely	Somewhat likely	Not too likely	Not at all likely	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Gore	18	19	29	27	7
Bush	8	17	37	32	6

Liberal activists will have too much influence in the government [Gore]/ Conservative activists will have too much influence in the government [Bush]/.

	Very likely	Somewhat likely	Not too likely	Not at all likely	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Gore	25	22	28	15	10
Bush	24	26	28	13	9