Clinton, Giuliani Still Top Parties' Support for Nominations in 2008

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With only about six months remaining before the Iowa caucuses, the races for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations remain in a steady state. Republican Rudy Giuliani and Democrat Hillary Clinton continue to hold statistically significant leads over the rest of their respective fields of competitors. The most notable recent change this year has been on the Republican side, where John McCain's recent dip in the polls and Fred Thompson's recent gains have resulted in the two switching second and third places. Even though Al Gore would draw significant support for the Democratic nomination, recent polls suggest his entry would not alter the basic structure of that race.

Democratic Nomination

The July 6-8, 2007, poll asked Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who they are most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the next election. Gallup calculates the results both with and without Gore, who has not ruled out a bid, but has said he has no plans to run. The ballot excluding Gore is computed by substituting Gore voters' second choice for the nomination.

Clinton leads the pack of Democratic hopefuls on both ballot measures, pulling in 37% support with Gore in the race and 42% with him factored out. Obama places second by a narrow margin with Gore in the race and a more comfortable margin when Gore's support is re-allocated. Gore draws 16%, essentially tying him for third with Edwards at 13% (Edwards' support is 16% without Gore.) No other candidate receives more than 4% support.

(Asked of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents) Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primaries for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.

In recent polls, Democrats who would otherwise support Gore have distributed their preferences about equally between Clinton and Obama, with Edwards receiving a smaller slice of the potential Gore voting bloc. In fact, Clinton's advantage over Obama in the current poll is 16 percentage points -- regardless of whether Gore is in the race.

Earlier this year, Gore's absence appeared to help Clinton, as she typically received more support from Gore supporters than Obama or Edwards.

The overall trend in the race has not changed significantly over the course of the year. Clinton has typically led Democrats' preference list for their party's nomination with no less than 37% support (when Gore is excluded), with Obama usually in second place with support in the mid-20s, Edwards in third in the mid-teens, and no other candidate getting more than 5% support in any of these surveys.

With Gore included, the same general pattern holds, although Clinton's support is typically in the mid-30s and Obama's in the low- to mid-20s, with Gore and Edwards vying for third place.

Overall, 61% of Democrats name Clinton as their first or second choice for the nomination -- the only Democrat above 50% on this measure. Obama is the first or second choice for 44% of Democrats, while Gore is named by 34%, and Edwards by 24%. Clinton has been the first or second choice of a majority of Democrats in every Gallup Poll this year. Obama reached that mark in an early June poll, but more typically has been in the 40% range.

In its last two polls, Gallup has asked Democrats how likely they are to vote in the primaries or caucuses in their state next year. An average of 59% across these polls have said they are "extremely likely" to do so. Among this group of likely Democratic primary voters, the results are very similar to those for all Democrats -- 42% say they are most likely to support Clinton, 28% Obama, and 14% Edwards. With Gore included, the results among likely primary voters are 37% for Clinton, 24% for Obama, 15% for Gore, and 12% for Edwards.

Republican Nomination

Giuliani continues to be the top choice of Republicans for his party's 2008 presidential nomination, with Fred Thompson following next, John McCain in third, and Mitt Romney in fourth. The percentage of support for these candidates varies little depending on whether reluctant candidate Newt Gingrich -- who is supported by only 6% of Republicans -- is included in the race. None of the remaining Republican candidates score higher than 3% in the poll.

(Asked of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents) Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primaries for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.

While Giuliani has consistently topped Republicans' preferences for the Republican nomination since February, there have been some changes in the second place candidate. From February through early June, McCain was a solid second behind Giuliani. In a mid-June poll, Thompson and McCain were essentially tied. Now, as McCain's support has dipped to a low of 16%, Thompson has gained a slight five-point advantage over McCain (and a four-point advantage in the ballot including Gingrich).

Also, Giuliani's level of support has fallen from where it was in the spring -- even though he continues to maintain a lead.

Giuliani is the first or second choice for the nomination of 52% of Republicans -- well ahead of any other Republican on this measure -- as he has been all year. Thirty-one percent of Republicans rate Fred Thompson as their first or second choice, 30% name McCain, and 18% name Romney.

Republicans' support for Thompson as the first or second choice for the nomination has nearly doubled in recent months, from 16% in late March when he was first included in Gallup nomination polling, to the current 31%. At the same time, McCain's support has deteriorated, from a high 47% in February, to the current 30%. Giuliani's has fallen from 57% to 52%.

Turnout may be more of a factor in the Republican primaries than the Democratic primaries. Among the 61% of Republicans in the last two polls who say they are extremely likely to vote in their state's primary or caucus next year, Giuliani (29%) and Fred Thompson (25%) essentially tie. McCain is third among this group at 18% and Romney fourth at 9%, with all other candidates at 3% or below.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 6-8, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 394 Republicans or Republican leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 516 Democrats or Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

(Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party) Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.

[ROTATED: Kansas Senator, Sam Brownback; Former Virginia Governor, Jim Gilmore; Former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich; Former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani; Nebraska Senator, Chuck Hagel; Former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee; California Congressman, Duncan Hunter; Arizona Senator, John McCain; Former Massachusetts Governor, MittRomney; Colorado Congressman, Tom Tancredo; Former Wisconsin Governor, Tommy Thompson; Former Tennessee Senator, Fred Thompson; Texas Congressman, Ron Paul]

Republican Presidential Nomination Preference (Without Newt Gingrich):

(Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party who named a candidate they support for the Republican nomination in 2008) Who would be your second choice?

COMBINED RESPONSES: FIRST AND SECOND CHOICES

(Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party) How likely are you to vote in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state when it is held next year -- extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely, or not likely?

 (Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party) Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.

[ROTATED: Delaware Senator, Joe Biden; New York Senator, Hillary Clinton; Connecticut Senator, Christopher Dodd; Former North Carolina Senator, John Edwards; Former Vice President, Al Gore; Former Alaska Senator, Mike Gravel; Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich; Illinois Senator, Barack Obama; New Mexico Governor, Bill Richardson]

Democratic Presidential Nomination Preference (Without Al Gore):

(Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party who named a candidate they support for the Democratic nomination in 2008) Who would be your second choice?

COMBINED RESPONSES: FIRST AND SECOND CHOICES

(Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party) How likely are you to vote in the Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state when it is held next year -- extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely, or not likely?