GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Clinton administration negotiators are meeting in Washington this week with Israeli and Palestinian leaders, trying to make headway on some of the toughest issues involved in the Mideast conflict. Recent Gallup polls suggest that the U.S. public is favorably disposed to this intensive diplomatic effort. Specifically:
- A majority of Americans, 53%, say that what happens in the Middle East is of vital importance to the United States -- more so than any other major international region.
- Americans widely support the development of a peaceful resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with 78% rating this as an important U.S. foreign policy goal.
Americans sympathize more with Israelis than with the Palestinians in the regional dispute, by a 43% vs. 13% margin. However, one quarter of the public (26%) takes either both or neither group's side, while 18% have no opinion. Despite these pro-Israeli leanings, when asked about official U.S. favoritism towards one side or the other in the dispute, the vast majority of Americans, 72%, think the United States should be neutral rather than taking either the Israeli or the Palestinian side.
The public's attitude that the United States should take a neutral stance in the conflict is all the more interesting given Americans' very different attitudes about U.S. relations with the two sides. When asked to characterize the nature of U.S.-Israeli relations, Americans' reactions are quite positive, with 35% calling Israel an "ally" and 44% calling the country "friendly, but not an ally". Only 10% consider Israel "unfriendly", and even fewer, 4%, describe her as an "enemy" of the United States. This assessment is less positive than that seen for Canada, Great Britain and other Western European countries, but still places Israel sixth on the list of 26 countries rated as allies in the May 18-21 Gallup survey, roughly comparable to Mexico and Japan. In contrast, the Palestinian Authority ranks 20th on the list, with only 34% of Americans describing it as an ally or friend and 50% as an enemy or an "unfriendly" nation.
Mixed Outlook for Peace
The U.S. public is now
closely divided on the question of whether lasting peace in the
Middle East will ever be achieved. Forty-nine percent of Americans
are optimistic that Israel and the Arab nations will be able to
settle their differences and live in peace; 45% doubt this will
happen. While still quite skeptical, this outlook is actually more
positive than what Gallup recorded as recently as two and three
years ago, when a majority of Americans doubted peace would ever
come to the region. This more optimistic outlook is perhaps a
result of continued diplomatic efforts by the Clinton
administration in recent years.
Skepticism about the prospects for peace aside, most Americans believe that a peaceful resolution to the Palestinian-Israeli situation should be an important foreign policy goal of the United States, including 32% who consider it "very important" and another 46% who rate it "somewhat important". Only 18% say a peaceful resolution is of little to no importance. Furthermore, Americans consider events in the Middle East to be of greater importance than events of any other major world region. Fifty-three percent of Americans say that events in the Middle East are "vitally important" to the United States, compared to smaller numbers who consider such regions as Western Europe (39%), Asia (36%), Central America (30%), and Eastern Europe (30%) as vitally important. The perceived importance of South America and Africa is even lower, at 24% and 18% respectively.
Jerusalem and Palestinian Statehood
Perhaps
the thorniest issue on the Arab-Israeli negotiating table -- so
difficult that it may not even come up this week -- is the status
of Jerusalem. Both sides claim the holy city as their historic
capital and are unwilling to settle for anything less than full
control. A recent Gallup survey in Israel and the Palestinian
territories documents the intensity of the issue for the peoples
there. Only 29% of Palestinians and 37% of Israeli Jews favor
making Jerusalem a unified capital for Jews, Christians, and
Muslims alike. Most of the people there -- including 80% of
Israelis and 89% of Palestinians -- say that their side should
insist "unconditionally" on the status of Jerusalem, rather than
negotiate.
Palestinian statehood is a long-standing issue in Middle East negotiations, with details over territories to be controlled at the heart of the current controversy. Earlier this year, a top Israeli peace negotiator predicted that the ultimate outcome of ongoing peace talks with the Palestinians would be a Palestinian state. Meanwhile, Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat has reportedly set a target date of September 13, 2000, for establishing an independent Palestinian state on the West Bank and Gaza. A Gallup poll conducted last year found a majority of Americans, 53%, in favor of Palestinian statehood, with 26% opposed and 21% expressing no opinion. Gallup polling of American "opinion leaders" in previous years -- part of an ongoing series of surveys sponsored by the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations -- found even higher support: 77% in favor and 18% opposed. (The "opinion leader" survey included a diverse sample of business, government, labor, media and religious leaders, as well as academics working in the area of foreign policy.)
Survey Methods
The results below are based on
telephone interviews with randomly selected national samples of
1,000 or more adults, 18 years and older. For results based on
samples of this size, one can say with 95 percent confidence that
the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects
is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Results based on subgroups of
these surveys are indicated where appropriate, along with the
adjusted margin of error. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
For each of the following countries, please say whether you consider it: an ally of the United States; friendly, but not an ally; unfriendly; or an enemy of the United States. How about …?[Random order]
BASED ON – 490 --NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A; +/- 5PCT PTS
|
|
An ally |
Friendly, but not an ally |
Unfriendly |
An enemy of U.S. |
No opinion |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
May 18-21, 2000 |
|||||
|
Canada |
65 |
31 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Great Britain |
65 |
27 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
|
France |
50 |
40 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
|
Germany |
44 |
44 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
|
Italy |
42 |
49 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
|
Israel |
35 |
44 |
10 |
4 |
7 |
|
Mexico |
33 |
55 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
|
Japan |
32 |
54 |
8 |
2 |
4 |
|
Greece |
27 |
55 |
5 |
1 |
12 |
|
Taiwan |
25 |
55 |
9 |
1 |
10 |
|
Brazil |
24 |
59 |
4 |
1 |
12 |
|
Egypt |
21 |
55 |
10 |
4 |
10 |
|
Saudi Arabia |
19 |
37 |
23 |
12 |
9 |
|
Jordan |
16 |
52 |
14 |
3 |
15 |
|
India |
15 |
61 |
13 |
3 |
8 |
|
Russia |
12 |
49 |
22 |
11 |
6 |
|
Colombia |
11 |
41 |
28 |
9 |
11 |
|
China |
10 |
41 |
30 |
13 |
6 |
|
Pakistan |
6 |
30 |
39 |
11 |
14 |
|
The Palestinian Authority |
6 |
28 |
32 |
18 |
16 |
|
North Korea |
6 |
26 |
35 |
24 |
9 |
|
Syria |
5 |
28 |
33 |
11 |
23 |
|
Cuba |
5 |
12 |
42 |
36 |
5 |
|
Iran |
3 |
14 |
44 |
34 |
5 |
|
Iraq |
2 |
8 |
39 |
47 |
4 |
|
Vietnam |
9 |
40 |
33 |
10 |
8 |
Next, how important do you think what happens in each of the following areas of the world is to the United States today -- would you say it is vitally important, important but not vital, not too important, or not at all important? First, how about what happens in…? [Random order]
BASED ON – 490 --NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A; +/- 5PCT PTS
|
Vitally Important |
Important, but not vital |
Not too important |
Not at all important |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
May 18-21, 2000 |
|||||
|
The Middle East |
53 |
34 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
|
Western Europe |
39 |
45 |
11 |
2 |
3 |
|
Asia |
36 |
45 |
10 |
4 |
5 |
|
Central America |
30 |
52 |
12 |
3 |
3 |
|
Eastern Europe |
30 |
52 |
11 |
3 |
4 |
|
South America |
24 |
55 |
13 |
4 |
4 |
|
Africa |
18 |
51 |
23 |
5 |
3 |
In the Middle East conflict, do you think the United States should take Israel's side, take the Palestinians' side, or not take either side?
|
Israel's side |
Palestinians' side |
Not take either |
No opinion |
|
|
2000 Jan 25-26 |
15 |
1 |
72 |
12 |
|
1998 Dec 4-6 |
17 |
2 |
74 |
7 |
|
1998 May 8-10 |
15 |
2 |
74 |
9 |
In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies with the Israelis or more with the Palestinian Arabs?
|
Israelis |
Palestinian Arabs |
BOTH (vol.) |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
2000 Jan 25-26 |
43 |
13 |
5 |
21 |
18 |
|
1999 July 22-25 |
43 |
12 |
11 |
19 |
15 |
|
1998 Dec 4-6 |
46 |
13 |
5 |
22 |
14 |
|
1997 Aug 12-13 |
38 |
8 |
5 |
19 |
30 |
|
1996 Nov 21-24 |
38 |
15 |
6 |
14 |
27 |
|
1993 Sep 10-12 |
42 |
15 |
6 |
17 |
20 |
|
1991 Feb |
64 |
7 |
19 |
-- |
10 |
|
1989 Aug |
50 |
14 |
15 |
-- |
21 |
|
1988 May 13-15 |
37 |
15 |
22 |
-- |
26 |
Do you think there will or will not come a time when Israel and the Arab nations will be able to settle their differences and live in peace?
|
Yes, there |
No, there |
No |
|
|
2000 Jan 25-26 |
49 |
45 |
6 |
|
1999 Jul 22-25 |
49 |
47 |
4 |
|
1998 Dec 4-6 |
40 |
56 |
4 |
|
1997 Aug 12-13 |
36 |
56 |
8 |
As far as you are concerned, how important a goal should the development of a peaceful solution to the Palestinian-Israeli situation in the Middle East be to the United States? Should it be a very important foreign policy goal of the United States, a somewhat important goal, not too important, or not an important goal at all?
|
Very important |
Somewhat important |
Not too important |
Not at all important |
No |
|
|
2000 Jan 25-26 |
32 |
46 |
12 |
6 |
4 |
|
1999 Jul 22-25 |
41 |
41 |
9 |
6 |
3 |
|
1993 Sep 10-112 |
41 |
36 |
11 |
8 |
4 |
|
1991 Mar |
46 |
41 |
6 |
5 |
2 |