GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted June 6-7, finds the race for president to be holding steady, with George W. Bush leading Al Gore by four percentage points among likely voters, 48% to 44%. This result is similar to that from the last measurement in late May, and is in fact consistent with Gallup findings since early February. Since that time, Bush has held single-digit leads over Gore, which have fluctuated between one and nine percentage points. Other poll findings, together with the close horse race, suggest that the presumptive Republican and Democratic nominees are extremely closely matched, and that the election is shaping up to be highly competitive. Despite this, 55% of voters, up from 47% in March, now believe that Bush will win the election in November.
Gore and Bush receive nearly identical image ratings from the general public, with 56% of Americans saying they have a favorable impression of each man. Just over one-third of the public, 36%, have an unfavorable view of Gore while 35% feel that way about Bush. When asked to rate their likelihood of voting for each candidate, voters give a slight edge to Bush. A majority of likely voters, 57%, say they are "very" or "somewhat" likely to vote for Bush, compared to 50% for Gore. By contrast, 40% of voters say they are not likely to vote for Bush, compared to 47% for Gore.
While it is unclear whether either Reform Party contender Pat Buchanan or Green Party hopeful Ralph Nader will appear on a sufficient number of ballots to be a national candidate, Gallup tested a four-way race including these contestants alongside Bush and Gore. In this scenario, Bush maintains his slim lead -- receiving 46% of the vote, compared to 41% for Gore, 6% for Nader and just 2% for Buchanan.
Bush Perceived as Likely Winner
If perception
becomes reality then Bush does hold one strong advantage over Gore:
the public sees him as the likely winner of the fall election for
president. Overall, 55% of likely voters believe Bush will win the
election in November while 34% think Gore will win. Republicans are
most likely to express confidence in Bush, with 76% choosing Bush
to win, but a 52% majority of independent voters also feel this
way. A majority of Democrats, 54%, tend to think Gore will win, but
unlike Republicans, who are overwhelmingly positive about Bush, a
substantial minority of Democrats, 35%, say that Bush will
prevail.
Third-Party Candidate Images Rated
While the
two major-party nominees are rated favorably by the public,
Americans are not as positive in their ratings of third-party
candidates for president. Likely Reform Party nominee Pat Buchanan
is rated most negatively of the presidential candidates tested,
with half the American public saying they have an unfavorable
impression of the former Republican operative and political
commentator, and only 23% rating him favorably.
Nader has a different problem: recognition. Although opinion of Nader tilts positive with 34% rating him favorably and 27% unfavorably, one in five Americans (21%) say they have never heard of the long-time consumer activist while another 18% recognize his name but have no opinion of him. Libertarian Party presidential candidate Harry Browne establishes perhaps the outer boundary for name recognition in this election, however. Fewer than one in five Americans venture an opinion of Browne (with 5% feeling favorably and 14% unfavorably). Two-thirds of the public, 66%, say they have never heard of him while 15% have heard of him, but express no opinion.
Survey Methods
The results below are based on
telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of
1,059 adults, 18 years and older, conducted June 6-7, 2000. For
results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent
confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and
other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Results
based on likely voters include interviews with 528 national adults
deemed most likely to vote in November, and have a margin of
sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. In addition to
sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in
conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
public opinion polls.
If Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
IF UNSURE: As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
|
|
George W. Bush |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Likely Voters |
||||
|
2000 Jun 6-7 |
44 |
48 |
1 |
7 |
|
2000 May 23-24 |
42 |
49 |
1 |
8 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
44 |
49 |
1 |
6 |
|
2000 Apr 7-9 |
41 |
50 |
1 |
8 |
|
2000 Mar 30- Apr 2 |
45 |
46 |
1 |
8 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
43 |
49 |
1 |
7 |
|
2000 Feb 25-27 |
43 |
52 |
* |
5 |
|
2000 Feb 20-21 |
45 |
50 |
* |
5 |
|
2000 Feb 14-15 |
45 |
50 |
* |
5 |
|
2000 Feb 4-6 |
44 |
53 |
0 |
3 |
|
2000 Jan 17-19 |
42 |
53 |
* |
5 |
|
2000 Jan 13-16 |
38 |
57 |
1 |
4 |
|
2000 Jan 7-10 |
43 |
52 |
* |
5 |
Now suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included Al Gore as the Democratic candidate, George W. Bush as the Republican candidate, Pat Buchanan as the Reform Party candidate, and Ralph Nader as the Green Party candidate. Would you vote for -- [RANDOM ORDER: Al Gore, the Democrat, George W. Bush, the Republican candidate, Pat Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate, or Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate]?
IF UNSURE: As of today, do you lean toward Gore, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican, Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate, or Nader, the Green Party candidate?
|
Al |
George W. Bush |
Pat Buchanan |
Ralph Nader |
OTHER |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Likely Voters |
||||||
|
2000 Jun 6-7 |
41 |
46 |
2 |
6 |
* |
5 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
41 |
47 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
|
Republicans (Likely Voters) |
||||||
|
2000 Jun 6-7 |
6 |
88 |
2 |
2 |
* |
2 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
4 |
87 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Independents (Likely Voters) |
||||||
|
2000 Jun 6-7 |
37 |
36 |
4 |
12 |
1 |
10 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
37 |
44 |
5 |
7 |
2 |
5 |
|
Democrats (Likely Voters) |
||||||
|
2000 Jun 6-7 |
83 |
7 |
2 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
82 |
9 |
2 |
5 |
0 |
2 |
Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him. First, ... . How about ... ? [RANDOM ORDER]
BASED ON -- 491 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A; +/- 5 PERCENTAGE POINTS
A. Democratic Party Presidential CandidateAl Gore
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
||
|
(NA) 2000 Jun 6-7 |
56% |
36 |
* |
8 |
|
B. Republican Party Presidential CandidateGeorge W. Bush
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
||
|
(NA) 2000 Jun 6-7 |
56% |
35 |
0 |
9 |
|
C. Libertarian Party Presidential CandidateHarry Browne
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
||
|
(NA) 2000 Jun 6-7 |
5% |
14 |
66 |
15 |
|
D. Reform Party Presidential CandidatePat Buchanan
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
||
|
(NA) 2000 Jun 6-7 |
23% |
50 |
7 |
20 |
|
E. Green Party Presidential CandidateRalph Nader
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
||
|
(NA) 2000 Jun 6-7 |
34% |
27 |
21 |
18 |
|
Regardless of who you support, and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win the election in November -- [ROTATED: Al Gore (or) George W. Bush]?
|
Al Gore |
George W. Bush |
OTHER |
No opinion |
|
|
Likely Voters |
||||
|
2000 Jun 6-7 |
34% |
55 |
* |
11 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
39% |
47 |
* |
14 |
* Less than 0.5%
(vol.) Volunteered response
(NA) National Adults