Public Rates Giuliani Most Favorably of Eight Presidential Hopefuls

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest USA Today/Gallup poll finds Americans most positive in their assessment of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani out of eight possible presidential candidates in next year's election. The public is also more positive than negative in their ratings of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson. Views of New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, Arizona Sen. John McCain, and former Vice President Al Gore are equally positive and negative, and Americans' views toward Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney are more negative than positive. In recent weeks, McCain's and Obama's unfavorable ratings have increased significantly and are now the highest Gallup has ever measured for these men.

Candidate Ratings

Giuliani is the only candidate who has a majority favorable rating -- 55% of Americans rate him favorably, while 32% rate him unfavorably.

Giuliani also has the highest "net" favorable rating of any of the candidates (percentage favorable minus percentage unfavorable), at +23. Three other presidential hopefuls also have high net favorable ratings -- Obama +14, Edwards +12, and Thompson +11. Gore's net favorable rating is +2. Americans' opinions about McCain and Clinton are evenly divided, with net favorable ratings at -1 for McCain and -2 for Clinton. Romney is rated more negatively than any of the other candidates on this measure, with a net favorable rating of -9.

McCain's overall favorability rating is now at its lowest point this year, with 41% rating him favorable and 42% unfavorably. McCain's net favorable rating was fairly positive in first five months of the year, but has dropped in each poll since the beginning of June. This is the first time since February 1999, when Gallup first tested opinions of McCain, that his positive ratings have not exceeded his negative ratings.  

Although his net favorable rating is still one of the most positive of any candidate in the poll, Obama's +14 net rating is his lowest since the beginning of the year and marks a continued decline in his net ratings since mid-May. Obama's rating was highest in early March, at +40, and has averaged a +28 net favorable rating over the course of the year.

For McCain and Obama, their favorable ratings have not declined over the past month, but rather, a higher percentage of Americans now rate each candidate unfavorably, leading to a lower net favorable rating

Typically, Americans' ratings of relatively unknown candidates are more favorable than unfavorable in the early stages of their campaign. But opinions of Romney have never been much more positive than negative. His highest net favorable was only +8 this past May. As he has become somewhat better known in recent months, his ratings have become on balance negative, and his current net favorable rating is -9 (22% favorable, 31% unfavorable). About half of Americans remain unfamiliar with him.

Thompson -- the other still relatively unknown candidate -- fits the more typical pattern of being viewed more positively than negatively. His net favorable ratings have been consistent since Gallup first measured his ratings in April -- ranging between a +10 and a +16 net favorable rating over this period of time. Currently, he has a 31% favorable rating and 20% unfavorable ratings for a net score of +11. Forty-nine percent of Americans remain unfamiliar with the actor and former Tennessee senator.

Americans' ratings of Clinton, Edwards, and Giuliani have not shown much significant change in recent months. However, ratings of all three candidates have been higher at different points this year. Giuliani's and Clinton's net favorable ratings were highest in February, at +44 and +18 respectively, while Edwards' peaked at +32 in May. Giuliani and Edwards have consistently had net positive ratings, while Clinton's ratings have been more divided.

Candidate Ratings by Partisanship

Perhaps not surprisingly, Republicans are much more likely to rate their own party's candidates positively, while Democrats are much more favorable toward their own party's candidates.

Giuliani, by far, is the most positively rated Republican candidate among rank-and-file Republicans, with a +64 net favorable rating. Thompson has a +35 net favorable rating among Republicans; McCain and Romney are rated similarly, with +17 and +16 net favorable ratings, respectively. Among independents, Giuliani scores the highest, with a net favorable rating of +17, and Romney scores the worst, with a -13 net favorable rating. Independents are divided in their views of Thompson and McCain. Thompson and Giuliani fare better than the other Republican candidates among Democrats.

Clinton has the highest net favorable rating among Democrats at +71. Gore's net favorable rating is +56, which isn't much different from Edwards' +53. Obama's is slightly lower, at +45. Among independents, Obama and Edwards are rated the highest, with net favorable ratings of +18 and +14, respectively. Independents are divided in their view of Gore (+3), and are more negative than positive in their views of Clinton (-9). All four Democrats receive net negative ratings from Republicans, with Clinton rated the worst.

Republicans and Democrats differ significantly in their views of all eight candidates measured in this poll, but the largest variations are found in ratings of Clinton. Only 13% of Republicans rate Clinton favorably, while 84% rate her unfavorably. This is the exact opposite among Democrats -- 84% rate Clinton favorably and 13% unfavorably. The smallest partisan difference comes in ratings of Romney and Thompson (both of whom are not well-known by a majority of Democrats) and McCain.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,012 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted August 3-5, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. How about -- [ITEMS ROTATED]?

Hillary Clinton

John Edwards

Rudy Giuliani

Al Gore

John McCain

Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Fred Thompson