GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- At this early stage of the presidential campaign, the electorate as a whole does not see much difference between the two presumptive nominees of the Republican and Democratic Parties, Texas Governor George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore, respectively. As often happens, especially early in a campaign, voters seem to be relying primarily on their party affiliation as a guide for choosing a candidate to support. But party affiliation is not a perfect predictor of candidate preference. In addition to party, voters' evaluations of the candidates' personal characteristics have some impact on the vote, while voters' assessments of the candidates' abilities to handle the issues are less important.
According to the latest Gallup poll, conducted April 28-30, 48% of likely voters say they are either Republicans (36%) or independents who "lean" to the Republican Party (12%), while 46% say they are either Democrats (34%) or independents who "lean" to the Democratic Party (12%). But whether one leans to the party, or initially identifies with the party, the vote pattern is essentially the same. Republicans support Bush by a 91% to 4% margin, while Democrats choose Gore by 87% to 8%. Independents who do not lean to either party -- representing only 6% of the electorate -- are about evenly divided, tilting toward Bush by a 44% to 41% margin. Bush's overall 5-point lead comes mostly from the greater support he receives from his own party members (an 87-point lead) than what Gore receives from his party (a 79-point lead). The fact that those most likely to vote in the election are also slightly more Republican than Democratic (by two percentage points, as noted above) adds to Bush's advantage.
"Drivers" of the Election: Party and Personal
Characteristics
In the poll, voters were asked to
indicate which of the two major candidates could better handle
eight issues, and separately to indicate which candidate was better
described by eight positive personal characteristics. For the most
part, voters picked the candidates who corresponded to their
initial vote choice in these evaluations, so all of the evaluations
correlate highly with presidential vote. And, not surprisingly, on
most of the characteristics, the evaluations between the candidates
are quite close, a reflection of the close presidential vote.
Still, the scores the candidates received varied among the 16 items, and these variations give an intriguing insight into the factors that are "driving" the election at this point in the campaign. A special statistical analysis of the responses allows each item to be rank ordered in its importance in explaining the current presidential vote. The results are shown in the table below.
|
Importance of Personal Characteristics and
Issues |
||||
|
Importance Score |
Favors Bush |
Favors Gore |
Advantage to Bush (+) or Gore (-) |
|
|
Party Identification |
100 |
48 |
46 |
2 |
|
Can manage government effectively (9D) |
79 |
43 |
40 |
3 |
|
Cares about needs of people like you (9B) |
57 |
39 |
42 |
-3 |
|
Puts country ahead of own interests (9E) |
45 |
37 |
37 |
0 |
|
Vision for future (9H) |
44 |
42 |
38 |
4 |
|
Shares your values (9A) |
39 |
43 |
40 |
3 |
|
Taxes (10H) |
25 |
47 |
38 |
9 |
|
Education (10D) |
19 |
41 |
46 |
-5 |
|
Economy (10A) |
17 |
43 |
44 |
-1 |
|
Social Security and Medicare (10G) |
16 |
41 |
46 |
-5 |
|
Understands complex issues (9F) |
11 |
36 |
41 |
-5 |
|
Gun issue (10C) |
6 |
43 |
37 |
6 |
|
Foreign affairs (10B) |
4 |
43 |
42 |
1 |
|
Health care (10F) |
4 |
37 |
49 |
-12 |
|
Strong and decisive leader (9C) |
3 |
50 |
30 |
20 |
|
Not too extreme (9G) |
3 |
38 |
42 |
-4 |
|
Crime (10E) |
2 |
52 |
32 |
20 |
The analysis shows that taking into account all of the 16 items, as well as party identification, it is the latter that provides the highest correlation with presidential vote choice. Thus, it is assigned the value of 100. The other "importance scores" indicate how important each succeeding item is, compared to party identification, in explaining how people say they would vote. The second most important item is how people evaluated Gore and Bush on their ability to manage government effectively, and with a score of 79, this item is estimated to be 79% as important as party. This item also favors Bush, with 43% of likely voters choosing the Texas governor, compared with 40% who choose the vice president, as the candidate who would manage government more effectively.
After party identification, the five items next greatest in importance are all personal characteristics, and Bush beats Gore on three of the items, while Gore wins on just one item (the candidates tie on one). But for all five items, the margins in favor of the leading candidate are small.
The firstissue(as opposed to personal characteristics) that appears in the list is taxes, with an importance score of 25 and a net advantage to Bush of 9. Education is the next issue, favoring Gore by 5 points, but with a lower importance score of 19. Bush does particularly well on the issue of crime, with 52% saying he could better handle the issue, compared with just 32% who say that about Gore. But with an importance score of only 2, crime appears not to be a particularly salient issue right now and gives Bush little help despite his higher evaluation.
Similarly, Bush does particularly well on the dimension of "strong and decisive leader," with 50% of voters saying that description applies to him, while only 30% say it applies to Gore -- a net advantage to Bush of 20 percentage points. However, the statistical analysis shows that the importance score of that item is only a 3, suggesting it does not explain very well how people would vote.
Party Identification Is Related to Issues
While party identification is the most important "driver" of the
presidential vote, as it is in most elections, that fact does not
mean that issues are not important. Gallup polls show major
differences between Republicans and Democrats on most issues,
differences that are generally magnified among political
representatives of each party. Thus, to choose a party is also to
make a decision about issues in general -- because on most major
issues, Republican representatives tend to be conservative and
Democratic representatives tend to be liberal.
The analysis here shows that while most voters support the candidate of their party, some voters do not -- and for them, there are issues and personal characteristics that explain their "defections." Furthermore, the 6% of voters who consider themselves independent (and do not lean to either party) also rely on the issues and characteristics to make a decision. This analysis shows which of those items are most important -- beyond party affiliation.
For now, it is the perceived personal characteristics of the candidates, rather than how the candidates might handle the issues, that are more likely to pull some Democrats away from Gore and some Republicans away from Bush, and also help independents decide which of the two candidates to support. As the campaign progresses, and voters become more aware of the issue differences among the candidates, it could well be that the issues will become more important than they are now in explaining the vote.
Survey Methods
The results reported here are
based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national
sample of 1,003 adults, 18 years and older, conducted April 28-30,
2000. The sample includes 499 respondents who are considered most
likely to vote. For results based on this sample of likely voters,
one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error
attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus
5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
9.Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to Al Gore or more to George W. Bush. How about … ? (RANDOM ORDER)
BASED ON -- 499 -- LIKELY VOTERS; +/- 5 PCT. PTS.
|
|
|
BOTH/ SAME |
|
|
A.Shares your values
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
40% |
43 |
4 |
7 |
6 |
B.Cares about the needs of people like you
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
42% |
39 |
4 |
9 |
6 |
|
1999 Jun 4-5 |
44% |
44 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
C.Is a strong and decisive leader
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
30% |
50 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
|
1999 Jun 4-5 |
30% |
59 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
D.Can manage the government effectively
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
40% |
43 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
E.Puts the country's interests ahead of his own political interests
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
37% |
37 |
5 |
12 |
9 |
F.Understands complex issues
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
41% |
36 |
9 |
6 |
8 |
G.Is not too extreme in his political views
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
42% |
38 |
5 |
6 |
9 |
H.Has a vision for the country's future
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
38% |
42 |
9 |
5 |
6 |
10.Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Al Gore or George W. Bush would better handle each of the following issues. How about … ? (RANDOM ORDER)
BASED ON -- 499 -- LIKELY VOTERS; +/- 5 PCT. PTS.
|
Al Gore |
George W. Bush |
SAME (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
A.The economy |
||||
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
44% |
43 |
4 |
9 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
46% |
45 |
4 |
5 |
|
1999 Jun 11-13 |
35% |
55 |
2 |
8 |
B.Foreign affairs
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
42% |
43 |
4 |
11 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
46% |
44 |
2 |
8 |
|
1999 Jun 11-13 |
36% |
53 |
2 |
9 |
C.The gun issue
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
37% |
43 |
4 |
16 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
44% |
42 |
2 |
12 |
D.Education
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
46% |
41 |
5 |
8 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
48% |
41 |
5 |
6 |
E.Crime
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
32% |
52 |
6 |
10 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
37% |
51 |
4 |
8 |
F. Health care
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
49% |
37 |
3 |
11 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
54% |
34 |
3 |
9 |
G.Social Security and Medicare
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
46% |
41 |
2 |
11 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
49% |
40 |
3 |
8 |
H.Taxes
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
38% |
47 |
3 |
12 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
41% |
48 |
3 |
8 |
(vol.) Volunteered response