GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Arizona Senator John McCain was a relatively unknown figure to Americans a year ago when the 2000 presidential campaign began, but by the time of his decision to abandon his campaign this week, he had become the best liked of any of the candidates running, and fared significantly better than presumptive Republican nominee George W. Bush against Democrat Al Gore. McCain was never able to dent Bush's strong national support among Republicans, however, and in the end McCain was receiving only about a third of the GOP vote, while Bush was getting close to 60%.
A Gallup poll conducted in February 1999 showed that only 35% of Americans said they knew enough about McCain to have an opinion of him, while 65% did not. McCain's image among those who knew him was positive, however, at 27% favorable, and only 8% unfavorable. By way of comparison, in that same February 1999 poll, only 6% of Americans said they didn't know enough about Texas Governor George W. Bush to have an opinion, a remarkably high name recognition for someone who had never personally been on the national political scene (although his father, of course, is one of the best-known politicians in the country).
McCain gained name ID as the campaign progressed. By December 1999, 68% of Americans were able to give an opinion of McCain, and after McCain's 19-point victory over George W. Bush in New Hampshire on February 1 of this year, and the tidal wave of publicity that followed, McCain's name recognition shot up further. In a February 4-6 poll, eight in ten Americans were able to rate McCain, and most of them rated him favorably. In Gallup's last poll before Super Tuesday, conducted February 25-27, 84% of Americans were able to rate him, including 66% whose opinion was favorable.
In short, McCain's name recognition climbed from just about a third of the population in February 1999, to well over 80% a year later. McCain's final 66% favorable rating, in addition, was the highest of any of the four major candidates tested in the late February poll, above that of Bush, Gore and Bradley. McCain had over the course of the year risen from relative obscurity to become the best liked of any candidate running for president.
McCain Unable to Come Close to Bush's Support Among
Republicans
The problem for McCain was his inability to translate his generally
positive image into a majority or even plurality of GOP votes,
despite the gradual winnowing down of the Republican field as the
year progressed. In April 1999, when Gallup first included McCain
in the list of candidates among whom Republicans were asked to
choose their favorite, there were seven politicians on the list:
Bush, McCain, Steve Forbes, Gary Bauer, Elizabeth Dole, Dan Quayle,
and Pat Buchanan. Bush received 53% of the vote at that point; Dole
was second with 16%, and McCain was mired in single-digit territory
with the rest of the candidates, at only 5% of the vote.
The cast of characters on the Republican slate continued to change as the months went on. In one survey in September, Republicans were asked about nine different candidates; McCain remained back in the pack.
As Elizabeth Dole, and then others, dropped out of the race, McCain began to climb in the eyes of Republicans, and by late October, he had moved into second place, although Bush still dominated. By the beginning of the new year, McCain climbed a little more, and was receiving 18% of the registered Republican vote, against Bush's 63%. In the last poll before New Hampshire, McCain received 15%, still far behind Bush's 65%, but in a clear second-place position ahead of Steve Forbes.
McCain's stock among Republicans nationally rose sharply after New Hampshire, as would be expected given his significant and highly publicized win over Bush in the Granite State. In the first poll among national Republicans conducted after New Hampshire, on February 4-6, it was Bush 56% and McCain 34%. That 22-point gap, however, was as close as McCain was to come. As February wound on, and as Bush first won the South Carolina primary, and then McCain responded with a victory in Michigan, the national Republican numbers appeared stuck. In the final poll before Super Tuesday, it was Bush 57%, McCain 33%, essentially unchanged from just after New Hampshire. That final poll presaged the drubbing that McCain took across the country in GOP primaries on Super Tuesday, in turn precipitating his announcement on Thursday that he was suspending his campaign.
Despite Inability to Move Republican Numbers, McCain
Generated Broad Appeal Among Independents and Democrats
The Republican support levels, however, did not reflect the broad
appeal that McCain managed to acquire among independents and
Democrats. In four separate general election polls conducted after
New Hampshire during the month of February, McCain consistently
outpolled George W. Bush in trial heats against Al Gore among
likely November voters. McCain beat Gore by 22, 16, 24 and 24
points in the four polls, while Bush was beating Gore by only 9, 5,
5 and 9 points in the same polls. The reason for the McCain edge
was straightforward: McCain not only held onto the Republican vote,
but also pulled in significantly more independent and Democratic
votes than did Bush.
It is unclear whether McCain, had he won the nomination, would have been able to hold onto those non-Republican voters after it became evident that he was the anointed Republican candidate, and after he became the target of Democratic attacks. Nevertheless, it is his unusually strong appeal outside of his own party that has caused some of his supporters to urge McCain to consider running as an independent candidate next fall.
Among Republicans, Bush Was Consistently
Dominant
All in all, the supremacy of George W. Bush among Republicans was
never seriously challenged over the course of the last year. Bush
began with a majority of Republican votes last year. His low point
was in an April and early May 1999 poll, when Elizabeth Dole pulled
within 18 percentage points, but by the summer, Bush was routinely
getting 60% and more of the Republican vote, and even after New
Hampshire, at his lowest point, he fell only to 56%. Indeed, in the
long view, it was Elizabeth Dole, not McCain, who came closest to
the Texas governor among Republicans nationwide, although McCain's
ability to attract those who did not label themselves as
Republicans became, and still is, his signature accomplishment in
the 2000 campaign.
Survey Methods
The latest results in the table reported here are based on
telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of
1,027 adults, 18 years and older, conducted February 25-27, 2000.
For results based on the whole sample, one can say with 95 percent
confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and
other random effects is plus or minus 4 percentage points. In
addition to sampling error, question wording and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into
the findings of public opinion polls.
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who are running in the Republican primary for president. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president. [ROTATED: Texas Governor, George W. Bush; Arizona Senator, John McCain; Political commentator, Alan Keyes]
BASED ON -444- REGISTERED/LEAN REPUBLICANS; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Bsh | McC | Fbs | Kys | Bar | Htc | Dol | Qay | Bcn | N/O/NO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Registered Republicans | ||||||||||
| 2000
Feb 25-27 |
57 | 33 | -- | 4 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 6 |
| 2000
Feb 20-21 |
58 | 31 | -- | 3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 8 |
| 2000
Feb 14-15 |
58 | 31 | -- | 3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 8 |
| 2000
Feb 4-6 |
56 | 34 | 2 | 3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 5 |
| 2000
Jan 25-26 |
65 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 7 |
| 2000
Jan 17-19 |
63 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -- | -- | -- | 8 |
| 2000
Jan 13-16 |
61 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -- | -- | -- | 6 |
| 2000
Jan 7-10 |
63 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -- | -- | -- | 9 |
| 1999
Dec 20-21 |
60 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -- | -- | -- | 7 |
| 1999
Dec 9-12 |
64 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -- | -- | -- | 3 |
| 1999
Nov 18-21 |
63 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -- | -- | -- | 6 |
| All Republicans Trend | ||||||||||
| 1999
Nov 18-21 |
63 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -- | -- | -- | 6 |
| 1999
Nov 4-7 |
68 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -- | -- | -- | 8 |
| 1999
Oct 21-24 |
68 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -- | -- | -- | 7 |
| 1999
Oct 8-10 |
60 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | -- | 3 | 6 |
| 1999
Sep 10-14 |
62 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| 1999 Aug 16-18 | 61 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| 1999 Jun 25-27 |
59 | 5 | 6 | -- | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 1999 Jun 4-5 | 46 | 5 | 5 | -- | 1 | -- | 14 | 9 | 6 | 5 |
| 1999 May 23-24 | 46 | 6 | 5 | -- | 2 | -- | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| 1999 Apr 30-May 2 | 42 | 4 | 6 | -- | 3 | -- | 24 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 1999 Apr 13-14 | 53 | 5 | 6 | -- | 2 | -- | 16 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
Bsh: Bush
McC: McCain
Fbs: Forbes
Kys: Keyes
Bar: Bauer
Htc: Hatch
Dol: Dole
Qay: Quayle
Bcn: Buchanan
N/O/NO: None/ OTHER (vol.)/ No opinion
If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Governor George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
| Al Gore | George W. Bush | Other (vol.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| Likely Voters | ||||
| (LV) 2000 Feb 25-27 | 43 | 52 | * | 5 |
| (LV) 2000 Feb 20-21 | 45 | 50 | * | 5 |
| (LV) 2000 Feb 14-15 | 45 | 50 | * | 5 |
| (LV) 2000 Feb 4-6 | 44 | 53 | 0 | 3 |
| (LV) 2000 Jan 17-19 | 42 | 53 | * | 5 |
| (LV) 2000 Jan 13-16 | 38 | 57 | 1 | 4 |
| (LV) 2000 Jan 7-10 | 43 | 52 | * | 5 |
| Registered Voters | ||||
| (RV) 2000 Feb 25-27 | 44 | 51 | * | 5 |
| (RV) 2000 Feb 20-21 | 44 | 51 | * | 5 |
| (RV) 2000 Feb 14-15 | 46 | 48 | * | 6 |
| (RV) 2000 Feb 4-6 | 45 | 51 | * | 4 |
| (RV) 2000 Jan 25-26 | 44 | 51 | -- | 5 |
| (RV) 2000 Jan 17-19 | 41 | 53 | * | 6 |
| (RV) 2000 Jan 13-16 | 41 | 52 | 1 | 6 |
| (RV) 2000 Jan 7-10 | 44 | 51 | * | 5 |
| (RV) 1999 Dec 20-21 | 42 | 53 | * | 5 |
| (RV) 1999 Dec 9-12 | 42 | 55 | * | 3 |
| (RV) 1999 Nov 18-21 | 40 | 56 | * | 4 |
If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Arizona Senator John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Vice President Al Gore, the Democrat (or) Arizona Senator John McCain, the Republican]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Vice President Al Gore, the Democrat (or) Arizona Senator John McCain, the Republican]?
| Al Gore | John McCain | Other | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likely Voters | ||||
| (LV) 2000 Feb 25-27 | 35 | 59 | * | 6 |
| (LV) 2000 Feb 20-21 | 35 | 59 | * | 6 |
| (LV) 2000 Feb 14-15 | 39 | 55 | * | 6 |
| (LV) 2000 Feb 4-6 | 36 | 58 | 0 | 6 |
| (LV) 2000 Jan 17-19 | 42 | 52 | -- | 6 |
| (LV) 2000 Jan 7-10 | 41 | 54 | * | 5 |
| Registered Voters | ||||
| (RV) 2000 Feb 25-27 | 39 | 54 | * | 7 |
| (RV) 2000 Feb 20-21 | 37 | 57 | * | 6 |
| (RV) 2000 Feb 14-15 | 42 | 51 | * | 7 |
| (RV) 2000 Feb 4-6 | 40 | 53 | 0 | 7 |
| (RV) 2000 Jan 17-19 | 45 | 47 | * | 6 |
| (RV) 2000 Jan 7-10 | 45 | 49 | * | 6 |
| (RV) 1999 Dec 20-21 | 47 | 47 | * | 6 |
| (RV) 1999 Dec 9-12 | 44 | 52 | * | 4 |
(vol.) Volunteered response
* Less than 0.5%