GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
London, U.K. -- For all the difference it has so far made to the probable outcome, the 2001 election campaign might as well not have taken place. Gallup's latest survey for The Daily Telegraph suggests that all the main parties and their leaders have been wasting their time.
Before the launch of the campaign a week ago, 49 percent of voters told Gallup they intended to vote Labour. Among the two-thirds of the electorate who appear most likely to vote on June 7, the corresponding figure now is 48 percent -- a mere one point down.
Support for the Conservatives a week ago stood at 32 percent. Among likely voters, it still stands at precisely 32 percent. The Tories have benefited from neither Tony Blair's hymn-singing nor their own tax pledges.
Nor has Charles Kennedy's more casual campaigning style benefited -- or harmed -- the Liberal Democrats. They were on 13 percent last week. They are still on 13 percent.
In fact, it turns out that, at least for the time being, subtracting the people who seem unlikely to vote from the people who will almost certainly turn out makes little difference to the overall picture that Gallup paints.
Among all eligible voters, Labour's lead is 19 points. Focusing exclusively on likely voters has the effect of reducing Labour's lead by only three points to 16. The difference could assist the Conservatives in a number of marginal constituencies but, as last time, lower Labour turnout is likely to be concentrated mostly in safe Labour seats.
Labour is now faring less well than it was at this stage of the 1997 campaign. On the other hand, Labour's lead is now greater than it was on Election Day four years ago.
The Conservatives need a swing in their favour of 11.5 percent to win outright. Instead, Gallup shows a small swing -- of 1.5 percent -- in favour of Labour.
The starkest conclusion to emerge from Gallup's survey is the Tories' failure to make headway on what should be their flagship issue of taxation. Two-thirds of voters, 66 percent, agree with the proposition that "government services such as health, education and welfare should be extended even if it means some increases in taxes" -- a proportion that has remained remarkably stable over the past decade.
Of the remaining 34 percent, 20 percent favour the existing situation. Only 11 percent -- and only 20 percent of Conservative voters -- believe "taxes should be cut even if it means some reduction in government services such as health, education and welfare."
Of course, the Conservatives at the moment are maintaining, in effect, that the question is wrongly posed and that large-scale tax cuts are consistent with maintaining government spending on services.
But few voters believe them. Gallup's interviewers reminded respondents that "the Conservatives say they can cut total taxes by £8 billion while keeping to the present government's plans for increased spending on the NHS [National Health Service] and education." They then asked: Do you or do you not believe that a Conservative government, by saving money elsewhere, could combine tax cuts and increased spending in this way?
Only 27 percent of voters -- largely Conservative supporters -- replied that they thought the trick could be pulled off. Far more, 68 percent, said it could not.
The Tories' proposal to cut fuel duty wins more support, but still not nearly enough to tip voters in the Conservatives' direction. Again, Gallup's interviewers reminded respondents of the Tories' pledge that "of the £8 billion that the Conservatives plan to cut, one quarter or £2 billion would be used to reduce petrol duty by 28p a gallon."
The question in this case read: "Do you think this would or would not be the fairest way of reducing taxation?" More than a third of voters, 38 percent, agree with the Tories that, given the initial Conservative premise, cutting petrol duty would be the fairest way of achieving tax reductions but more than half, 54 percent, disagree.
Overall, Gordon Brown's attempt to reposition Labour with regard to "tax and spend" appears to have been a substantial success. Gallup asked: "Which of the two major parties, the Conservatives and Labour, more closely resembles your own views about the right balance between taxation and government spending?"
Yet again, Labour comes out ahead. Only 29 percent of Gallup's respondents -- mostly people who are Tory supporters already -- prefer the Conservatives on taxation and expenditure. Nearly twice that proportion, 57 percent, have more sympathy with Labour.
The Tories are having more success on two of their other central issues -- Europe and law and order -- but, even here, their success has so far been limited.
Asked which of the two major parties more closely represented their own views about Britain's future in Europe, 48 percent replied Labour and only 38 percent the Conservatives.
On law and order, Gallup first asked respondents whether they thought it was possible for any government "to bring about a major reduction in the amount of crime." Roughly two thirds, 64 percent, said they thought it was possible, with 33 percent being more sceptical. The interviewers then asked the 64 percent who believed a major reduction in crime was possible which of the two major parties they thought would be more likely to effect such a reduction.
Despite Ann Widdecombe's best efforts, Labour is ahead even on this issue, albeit by the narrower margin of 46 percent to 40 percent.
The truth is that it is hard to find substantial comfort for the hard-pressed Tories in any of Gallup's findings. Despite the undoubted cynicism surrounding the Labour Party at the moment, the Conservatives still give the impression of being about to suffer an inexorable and malign fate.
Anthony King is professor of government at Essex University, and is a political analyst and a special contributor for The Daily Telegraph. This article is reprinted by the Gallup Poll News Service with permission from The Daily Telegraph.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with -- 1,446 -- respondents, aged 18+ from across Great Britain conducted May 14-15, 2001. Respondents who reported that they were not on the electoral register or definitely would not vote in the general election on June 7 have been excluded.
For results based on a sample of this size, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/-3 percentage points.
