Public Skepticism About Extent of Y2K Computer Problems Proves Accurate

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- As New Year's Eve approached last week, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Tuesday, December 28 found more Americans convinced that a Y2K terrorist attack would occur in the U.S. than thought Y2K-related computer failures would wreak societal havoc. Almost two-thirds of Americans, 61%, believed that one or more terrorist attacks were likely to happen on New Year's, while just 37% thought major disruption from computer errors awaited us. However, a much smaller percentage thought either of these prospects was very likely to occur. Perhaps as a result, only a third or so of Americans indicated they would adjust their behavior or take other precautionary steps -- a sign that public alarm was at low levels.

The same day the special Gallup pre-New Year's survey was taken, Seattle municipal leaders announced they were canceling a downtown New Year's celebration because of fears of terrorism. However, the news had no immediate impact on Americans' concerns about terrorism. In a Gallup poll taken two weeks ago, prior to the Seattle decision, 22% of Americans said it was "very likely" that one or more terrorists attacks would occur on New Year's Eve, while another 40% said this was "somewhat likely." Roughly one-quarter viewed the possibility as "somewhat unlikely," and 12% considered it "very unlikely." When the question was asked again last week, the figures were almost identical, with 21% predicting that such terrorism was very likely, and 40% as somewhat likely.

Paying Lip Service to Warnings
The pre-New Year's Eve poll found Americans generally accepting of the warnings that had been issued about possible Y2K computer errors and terrorist violence. A majority of the public -- 59% -- believed that the Y2K computer bug warnings represented a "necessary precaution," while only 38% considered them an "unnecessary overreaction." Public support for the warnings that were issued against possible terrorism was even higher at 80%, with only 17% viewing these as unnecessary.

But, despite this recognition of the need for warnings, most Americans said they were unlikely to take any special precautions themselves. Only 36% said they were likely to change their behavior or take special precautions because of Y2K computer-related concerns, while 63% say they were unlikely to take such precautions. Similarly, only 33% would take precautions to avoid terrorism while 66% would not. And on one specific issue, Americans' calmness about terrorism was most evident. When asked whether cities around the United States should have proceeded with large public gatherings planned for New Year's Eve, 71% said these gatherings should proceed as scheduled, while only 24% agreed that these events should be cancelled, as happened in Seattle.

Y2K Bug Expected to Strike Internationally
As noted by Gallup in previous Y2K polling this year forUSA Todayand the National Science Foundation, the poll found Americans inclined to believe that while the U.S. was well prepared, computer problems were likely to occur internationally. Seventy percent said that major Y2K problems were likely in other countries around the world, while just 25% thought they were unlikely. (This aspect of Americans' Y2K concerns was not realized, at least as far as known now.)

Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 622 adults, 18 years and older, conducted December 28, 1999. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

As you may know, most computer systems around the world have to be reprogrammed so that they can accurately recognize the date once we reach the Year 2000. How likely do you think it is that there will be major problems in the United States this New Years as a direct or indirect result of the Y2K computer problem - very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely?

Very likely	7%
Somewhat likely	30
Somewhat unlikely	32
Very unlikely	30
No opinion	1
	100%

How do you feel about the warnings that have been in the news about possible Y2K computer problems - do you consider these warnings - unnecessary overreactions or necessary precautions?

Unnecessary overreactions	38%
Necessary precautions	59
No opinion	3
	100%

How likely are you to change your behavior or take special precautions this New Year's because of concerns you may have relating to the Y2K computer problem - very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely?

Very likely	11%
Somewhat likely	25
Somewhat unlikely	20
Very unlikely	43
No opinion	1
	100%

Now thinking about other countries around the world, how likely do you think it is that there will be major problems in other countries this New Years as a direct or indirect result of the Y2K computer problem - very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely?

Very likely	22%
Somewhat likely	48
Somewhat unlikely	16
Very unlikely	9
No opinion	5
	100%

How likely do you think it is that there will be one or more terrorist attacks in the United States on New Year's Eve or New Year's Eve Day - very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely?

	Very likely	Somewhat likely	Somewhat unlikely	Very unlikely	No opinion
1999 Dec 28	21%	40	24	13	2
1999 Dec 20-21	22%	40	23	12	3

How do you feel about the warnings that have been in the news about possible New Years Eve terrorist problems - do you consider these warnings - unnecessary overreactions or necessary precautions?

Unnecessary overreactions	17%
Necessary precautions	80
No opinion	3
	100%

How likely are you to change your behavior or take special precautions this New Year's because of concerns you may have about terrorism - very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely?

Very likely	13%
Somewhat likely	20
Somewhat unlikely	17
Very unlikely	49
No opinion	1
	100%

Finally, do you think U.S. cities should or should not cancel large public gatherings which they currently have scheduled for New Year's Eve?

Yes, should cancel	24%
No, should not cancel	71
No opinion	5
	100%