GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Among registered Democrats across the country, Vice President Al Gore continues to lead former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley for the presidential nomination by more than a dozen points, but in the general election contest, Bradley fares better than Gore against both Texas Governor George W. Bush and Arizona Senator John McCain.
According to a recent Gallup poll, conducted December 20-21, Gore receives the support of 52% of registered Democrats for his party's nomination, while Bradley gets 38%. These results are very similar to the support each candidate received in a Gallup poll earlier this month, but are a better showing for Bradley than in a late November poll, when Gore led by 56% to 34%. In the past three months, Gore's lead has varied from a low of 12 percentage points (in early October) to a high of 25 points (in late October and early November).
While Gore leads Bradley among Democrats for the nomination, Bradley shows greater electoral strength than Gore in the general election contest. In a hypothetical match up between Gore and Bush among registered voters nationwide, the Texas governor beats the vice president by 11 percentage points, 53% to 42%. A Bush-Bradley contest, by contrast, shows Bush with a smaller lead of five percentage points, 50% to 45%. Against McCain, the difference in the electoral strength between Bradley and Gore is even more pronounced. Gore ties McCain at 47%, while Bradley beats McCain by a 13-point margin, 52% to 39%.
Bush continues to lead McCain for the Republican
The poll shows that among Republicans, Bush leads McCain by 60% to 17% for their party's nomination, essentially unchanged over the past month. Since Elizabeth Dole dropped out of the race in mid-October, McCain's support has about doubled from the 8% he received then. Bush's support has remained fairly constant, although it surged to 68% in late October and early November, before dropping back to its current level.
Against Bush, Bradley's advantage over Gore is greatest
among males, the young, and independents
Compared with Gore, Bradley fares much better against Bush among younger voters, and to a lesser extent among independents, males, Republicans, and voters in the East and Midwest, while performing about as well as Gore among other groups of voters.
Among those in the 18-29-age range, Bush beats Gore by a 26-point margin, while Bradley beats Bush by two points among the same group of voters -- a stunning 28-point swing in support. Bradley also gets somewhat more support than Gore among the 50-64 age group, leading Bush by five points (50% to 45%) among these voters, while Bush beats Gore by two points, 48% to 46%. Among the other two age groups, voters who are 30-49 years old, and 65 and older, Bradley and Gore fare about the same against Bush, each losing to the Republican candidate by 14 points in the younger group, and essentially tying Bush among the older group.
These results also show that while both candidates enjoy about the same electoral support among women, Bradley's electoral strength among men is greater than Gore's. In the Gore-Bush contest, a major gender gap is evident, with Bush leading Gore among men by 19 percentage points, but among women by only five points. That gender gap disappears in the Bradley-Bush contest, as Bradley trails among men by six points and among women by four points. Bradley's relative strength among men may reflect his fame as a professional basketball player earlier in his career.
Similar results are found among independents and voters in the East and Midwest, where Bradley's electoral strength is from 10 points to 14 points greater than Gore's. Among independents, Gore trails Bush by 21 points, while Bradley trails by just seven points -- a pattern that is very similar among southern voters. The same net result, with a somewhat different pattern, is found in the East, where Bradley beats Bush by 11 points, while Gore beats Bush by just a point.
Against McCain, Bradley fares better than Gore among wide
spectrum of voters
Against Bush, Bradley enjoys a net electoral advantage over Gore of just six percentage points, trailing Bush by five points compared with Gore's 11-point deficit. Against McCain, however, Bradley's net electoral advantage over Gore is 13 points -- as Bradley beats McCain by 13 points, while Gore ties the Arizona senator. Bradley's greater electoral strength is found about equally among men and women, and also -- although unequally -- among all party identifiers, among three of the four age groups, and in all regions of the country.
The groups showing the largest differences in Bradley's and Gore's electoral strength against McCain are the 18-29 year old voters, Republicans, and eastern voters. Young voters split evenly between Gore and McCain at 47%, but they give Bradley a 24-point lead, 58% to 34%. Similarly, eastern voters support Gore over McCain by four points, 49% to 45%, but they support Bradley over McCain by 33 points, 63% to 30%.
Bradley even appeals to a substantial number of Republicans, with 24% voting for him over McCain, while Gore draws only 14% of the Republican vote. The net effect is a McCain lead among Republicans of 70 points over Gore, but just 46 points over Bradley. The former New Jersey senator also fares better than Gore against McCain among independents and among Democrats, although the margins are not as substantial.
The results reported here are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,031 adults, 18 years and older, conducted December 20-21, 1999. For results based on the whole sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2000. [ROTATED Bill Bradley (or) Al Gore]?
BASED ON - 433 - REGISTERED DEMOCRATS/LEAN DEMOCRATIC; ± 5 PCT PTS
|Al Gore||Bill Bradley||Other (vol.)||No opinion|
|1999 Dec 20-21||52||38||1||9|
|1999 Dec 9-12||54||39||*||7|
|1999 Nov 18-21||56||34||*||10|
|All Democrats Trend|
|1999 Nov 18-21||54||35||*||11|
|1999 Nov 4-7||58||33||*||9|
|1999 Oct 21-24||57||32||*||11|
|1999 Oct 8-10||51||39||1||9|
|1999 Sep 10-14||63||30||*||7|
|1999 Aug 16-18||58||31||1||10|
|1999 Jun 25-27||64||28||1||7|
|1999 Jun 4-5||63||28||0||9|
|1999 May 23-24||59||30||0||11|
|1999 Apr 30-May 2||66||23||1||10|
|1999 Apr 13-14||54||34||1||11|
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2000. [RANDOM ORDER: Former Family Research Council chairman, Gary Bauer; Texas Governor, George W. Bush; Businessman, Steve Forbes; Arizona Senator, John McCain; Utah Senator, Orrin Hatch; Political commentator, Alan Keyes]?
BASED ON 378 REGISTERED REPUBLICANS/LEAN REPUBLICAN; ± 6 PCT PTS
|1999 Dec 20-21||60||17||9||4||2||1||--||--||--||7|
|1999 Dec 9-12||64||18||7||4||2||2||--||--||--||3|
|1999 Nov 18-21||63||16||6||2||3||4||--||--||--||6|
|All Republicans Trend|
|1999 Aug 16-18||61||5||4||1||2||1||13||6||3||4|
|1999 Jun 4-5||46||5||5||--||1||--||14||9||6||5|
|1999 May 23-24||46||6||5||--||2||--||18||7||6||5|
|1999 Apr 30-May 2||42||4||6||--||3||--||24||6||5||5|
|1999 Apr 13-14||53||5||6||--||2||--||16||7||4||2|
(--) Denotes candidate's name not included in list for that
survey (either because person had not yet announced candidacy, or
because candidate had dropped out of the race)
No: None/ Other/ No opinion
If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Governor George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Gore, the Democrat (or), Bush, the Republican]?
BASED ON --892 -- REGISTERED VOTERS; ± 4 PCT PTS
|Al Gore||George W. Bush||Other (vol.)||No opinion|
|(RV) 1999 Dec 20-21||42||53||*||5|
|(RV) 1999 Dec 9-12||42||55||*||3|
|(RV) 1999 Nov 18-21||40||56||*||4|
|(NA) 1999 Nov 18-21||39||56||*||5|
|(NA) 1999 Nov 4-7||40||55||*||5|
|(NA) 1999 Oct 21-24||43||52||*||5|
|(NA) 1999 Oct 8-10||40||56||*||4|
|(NA) 1999 Sep 23-26||37||55||*||8|
|(NA) 1999 Sep 10-14||39||56||*||5|
|(NA) 1999 Aug 16-18||41||55||*||4|
|(NA) 1999 Jul 16-18||38||55||*||7|
|(NA) 1999 Jun 25-27||41||56||*||3|
|(NA) 1999 Jun 4-5||40||56||*||4|
|(NA) 1999 May 23-24||40||54||*||6|
|(NA) 1999 Apr 30-May 2||40||56||*||4|
|(NA) 1999 Apr 13-14||38||59||*||3|
|(NA) 1999 Mar 12-14||41||56||*||3|
|(NA) 1999 Mar 5-7||41||56||*||3|
|(NA) 1999 Feb 19-21||43||54||*||3|
|(NA) 1999 Jan 8-10||47||48||*||5|
|(NA) 1998 May 8-10||46||50||*||4|
If former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Governor George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Bill Bradley, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Bill Bradley, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
BASED ON -- 892-- REGISTERED VOTERS; ± 4 PCT PTS
|Bill Bradley||George W. Bush||OTHER (vol.)||No opinion|
|(RV) 1999 Dec 20-21||45||50||*||5|
|(RV) 1999 Dec 9-12||45||51||1||3|
|(NA) 1999 Oct 21-24||39||54||*||7|
|(NA) 1999 Oct 8-10||42||54||*||4|
|(NA) 1999 Sep 10-14||37||57||*||6|
|(NA) 1999 Aug 16-18||40||55||*||5|
|(NA) 1999 Apr 13-14||34||61||*||5|
If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Arizona Senator, John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [Rotate Vice President Al Gore, the Democrat (or) Arizona Senator John McCain, the Republican]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [Rotate Vice-President Al Gore (or) Arizona Senator John McCain]?
BASED ON --892 -- REGISTERED VOTERS; ± 4 PCT PTS
|Al Gore||John McCain||Other||No opinion|
|(RV) 1999 Dec 20-21||47||47||*||6|
|1999 Dec 9-12||44||52||*||4|
If former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley were the Democratic Party's candidate and Arizona Senator John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [Rotate Former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley (or) Arizona Senator John McCain]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [Rotate Former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley (or) Arizona Senator John McCain]?
BASED ON --892 -- REGISTERED VOTERS; ± 4 PCT PTS
|Bill Bradley||John McCain||Other||No opinion|
|(RV) 1999 Dec 20-21||52||39||*||9|
(vol.) = volunteered response
(RV) = Registered Voters
(NA) = National Adults (all adults who answered this question)