GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll suggests that Americans are just as confident in the knowledge and experience of Republican front-runner George W. Bush as they are in Democratic front-runner Al Gore, and that Bush continues to beat Gore in a trial heat preview of a possible general election ballot next November. Additionally, Bush still leads the second-place Republican challenger, John McCain, by over 40 percentage points, although the number of Americans with a favorable opinion of McCain has grown substantially over the last two months. At the same time, responses to a hypothetical question asking about the impact of possible McCain victories in the early Republican primaries suggest the possibility that Bush's support may be soft, and that McCain may yet gain in the race for the nomination if such a scenario plays out next January and February.
Knowledge and Experience Enough to Be
President?
In recent weeks, several news stories have focused on whether Texas
Governor George W. Bush has the experience and knowledge necessary
to be president. Some of the stories have been generated by
reporters covering the election, but others have reflected
criticisms of Bush by the other Republican candidates. Whatever
their genesis, the latest Gallup poll finds that Americans express
as much confidence in Bush as they do in Vice President Al Gore for
overall levels of experience and knowledge, although Gore is seen
as more knowledgeable in foreign affairs. And in the general
election contest, Americans continue to give the Texas governor a
double-digit lead over the vice president.
When asked whether each candidate, Gore and Bush, has the knowledge and experience to be a good president or not, 64% of respondents say Bush does and 57% say Gore does. But when asked about the knowledge of the two candidates in each of three separate issue areas -- foreign affairs, economic policy, and education -- respondents see a clear difference between the two candidates in foreign affairs, although they see virtually no differences between the candidates in the other two areas.
Overall, 63% of respondents see Gore as knowing enough about economic policy to make a good president, compared with 65% who say that about Bush. Similarly, on education, 70% say Gore knows enough, while 69% say Bush knows enough. However, in the area of foreign affairs, 58% say Gore knows enough to be a good president, while only 44% say that about Bush.
Despite this clear difference in perception about Bush's foreign policy knowledge, the Texas governor continues to lead the vice president among registered voters, 55% to 42%, essentially unchanged from last month.
In a hypothetical contest with Bill Bradley, Bush's lead among registered voters is somewhat smaller, at 51% to 45%. Among all Americans, Bush leads Bradley, 52% to 44%, compared with a similar lead of 54% to 39% last October -- representing a slight improvement for Bradley over the past two months.
Possible Impact of Early McCain Victories
Senator John McCain has gained significant name recognition over
the past two months. In October, about half of the public did not
know enough about the former POW to rate him; that number has now
fallen to 32%. And, those who have an opinion of McCain are
overwhelmingly positive, by a 57% to 11% margin. This increased
name recognition, however, has not translated into a significant
increase in the number of Republicans who would vote for him
nationally.
What would happen if Bush falters as the primary season begins next January and he begins to lose primaries to McCain? A hypothetical question included in this weekend's poll asked Republicans that question, and given those circumstances, 37% of Republicans say they would vote for Bush, and 34% for McCain, a dramatic narrowing of the race. When the same type of question is asked of Democrats about a situation in which front-runner Al Gore would lose the first primaries to challenger Bill Bradley, the vote remains roughly the same. These responses suggest the possibility that support for Bush could erode rapidly if McCain wins in New Hampshire and continues to win the primaries that follow.
Survey Methods
The results reported here are based on telephone interviews with a
randomly selected national sample of 1,037 adults, 18 years and
older, conducted December 9-12, 1999. For results based on the
whole sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the
maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is
plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error,
question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys
can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
In your view, does (Rotate A-B) have the knowledge and experience necessary to be a good president, or not? How about…
| Yes | No | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Al Gore | 57% | 41 | 2 |
| B. George W. Bush | 64% | 30 | 6 |
(Next) thinking again about Al Gore, do you think he knows enough about each of the following issues to be a good president, or not? How about ... ? (Random Order)
| Yes, knows enough |
No, does not |
No opinion |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. | Foreign affairs | |||
| 1999 Dec 9-12 | 58% | 33 | 9 | |
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 57% | 33 | 10 | |
| B. | Economic policy | 63% | 29 | 8 |
| C. | Education | 70% | 23 | 7 |
(Next) thinking again about George W. Bush, do you think he knows enough about each of the following issues to be a good president, or not? How about ... ? (Random Order)
| Yes, knows enough |
No, does not |
No opinion |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. | Foreign affairs | |||
| 1999 Dec 9-12 | 44% | 44 | 12 | |
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 49% | 40 | 11 | |
| B. | Economic policy | 65% | 25 | 10 |
| C. | Education | 69% | 21 | 10 |
If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Governor George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Gore, the Democrat (or), Bush, the Republican]?
BASED ON -- 899 -- REGISTERED VOTERS; ± 4 PCT PTS
| Al Gore | George W. Bush | OTHER (vol.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| (RV) 1999 Dec 9-12 | 42 | 55 | * | 3 |
| (RV) 1999 Nov 18-21 | 40 | 56 | * | 4 |
| (NA) 1999 Nov 18-21 | 39 | 56 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1999 Nov 4-7 | 40 | 55 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1999 Oct 21-24 | 43 | 52 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1999 Oct 8-10 | 40 | 56 | * | 4 |
| (NA) 1999 Sep 23-26 | 37 | 55 | * | 8 |
| (NA) 1999 Sep 10-14 | 39 | 56 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1999 Aug 16-18 | 41 | 55 | * | 4 |
| (NA) 1999 Jul 16-18 | 38 | 55 | * | 7 |
| (NA) 1999 Jun 25-27 | 41 | 56 | * | 3 |
| (NA) 1999 Jun 4-5 | 40 | 56 | * | 4 |
| (NA) 1999 May 23-24 | 40 | 54 | * | 6 |
| (NA) 1999 Apr 30-May 2 | 40 | 56 | * | 4 |
| (NA) 1999 Apr 13-14 | 38 | 59 | * | 3 |
| (NA) 1999 Mar 12-14 | 41 | 56 | * | 3 |
| (NA) 1999 Mar 5-7 | 41 | 56 | * | 3 |
| (NA) 1999 Feb 19-21 | 43 | 54 | * | 3 |
| (NA) 1999 Jan 8-10 | 47 | 48 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1998 May 8-10 | 46 | 50 | * | 4 |
If former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Governor George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Bill Bradley, the Democrat (or), George W. Bush, the Republican]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Bill Bradley, the Democrat (or), George W. Bush, the Republican]?
BASED ON -- 899 -- REGISTERED VOTERS; ± 4 PCT PTS
| Bill Bradley | George W. Bush | OTHER (vol.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| (RV) 1999 Dec 9-12 | 45 | 51 | 1 | 3 |
| (NA) 1999 Oct 21-24 | 39 | 54 | * | 7 |
| (NA) 1999 Oct 8-10 | 42 | 54 | * | 4 |
| (NA) 1999 Sep 10-14 | 37 | 57 | * | 6 |
| (NA) 1999 Aug 16-18 | 40 | 55 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1999 Apr 13-14 | 34 | 61 | * | 5 |
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2000. [RANDOM ORDER: Former Family Research Council chairman, Gary Bauer; Texas Governor, George W. Bush; Businessman, Steve Forbes; Arizona Senator, John McCain; Utah Senator, Orrin Hatch; Political commentator, Alan Keyes]?
BASED ON -- 398 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS/LEAN REPUBLICAN; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Bsh | Dol | Qay | Frb | McC | Buc | Bau | Htc | Key | No | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Registered Republicans | ||||||||||
| 1999 Dec 9-12 | 64 | -- | -- | 7 | 18 | -- | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 63 | -- | -- | 6 | 16 | -- | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| All Republicans Trend: | ||||||||||
| 1999
Nov 18-21 |
63 | -- | -- | 6 | 16 | -- | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 1999
Nov 4-7 |
68 | -- | -- | 6 | 12 | -- | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 1999
Oct 21-24 |
68 | -- | -- | 8 | 11 | -- | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 1999
Oct 8-10 |
60 | 11 | -- | 4 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 1999
Sep 10-14 |
62 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 1999 Aug 16-18 | 61 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 1999 Jun 25-27 |
59 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -- | 6 |
| 1999 Jun 4-5 | 46 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | -- | -- | 5 |
| 1999 May 23-24 | 46 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | -- | -- | 5 |
| 1999 Apr 30-May 2 | 42 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -- | -- | 5 |
| 1999 Apr 13-14 | 53 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | -- | -- | 2 |
-- Candidate's name not included in list for that survey (either
because person had not yet announced candidacy, or because
candidate had dropped out of the race)
Bsh: Bush
Dol: Dole
Qay: Quayle
Frb: Forbes
McC: McCain
Buc: Buchanan
Bau: Bauer
Htc: Hatch
Key: Keyes
No: None/ Other/ No opinion
As you may know, in the first several months of next year, most states will hold a primary election for the Republican nomination for president. If John McCain defeats George W. Bush in some of the early primaries, but all the current candidates remain in the race, who would you be most likely to support for the Republican nomination at that point: [RANDOM ORDER: Former Family Research Council chairman, Gary Bauer; Texas Governor, George W. Bush; Businessman, Steve Forbes; Arizona Senator, John McCain; Utah Senator, Orrin Hatch; Political commentator, Alan Keyes]?
BASED ON -- 398 -- REGISTERED REPUBLICANS/LEAN REPUBLICAN; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Bush | 37% |
| McCain | 34 |
| Forbes | 10 |
| Hatch | 4 |
| Keyes | 4 |
| Bauer | 2 |
| NONE (vol.) | 1 |
| OTHER (vol.) | 1 |
| No opinion | 7 |
| 100% |
(RV) = Registered Voters
(NA) = National Adults
(vol.) = volunteered response
* = less than 0.5%