GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Tens of thousands of protestors are in Seattle this week for the World Trade Organization meetings, arguing that increased foreign trade with China and other countries will have a multitude of injurious effects on the U.S. and the world's economy and workers, and on the environment. A new Gallup poll suggests that while the American public may agree with some of these negative predictions, on balance the public favors the recent U.S. trade agreement with China in about the same way that Americans ultimately came to favor NAFTA after its passage by the House in 1993.
The agreement between the U.S. and China, signed by the Clinton administration on November 15, opens the way for China to become a member of the World Trade Organization. When asked directly, the public favors the agreement by a 54% to 33% margin. About the same percentage of Americans favored NAFTA in early 1994, after its final approval by the House of Representatives in November 1993.
Like NAFTA, the China agreement will need to be approved by the House, but unlike many high-visibility issues that come before Congress, there is very little partisan difference in public attitudes towards it. Fifty percent of Republicans say they favor the agreement, just a little below the 56% of independents and 55% of Democrats who favor it. There is a stronger split by ideology; only 43% of Americans who call themselves conservatives say they favor the agreement, compared to 62% of liberals and 60% of moderates.
One of the reasons why the agreement may be favored is that most Americans -- 56% -- believe that increased trade between the U.S. and foreign countries will help U.S. companies, compared with only 39% who believe it would hurt them.
The majority support for the China trade agreement does not mean, however, that Americans totally disregard the arguments put forth by labor unions and others that increased trade will hurt the average worker. When Americans are asked directly about the impact of such trade on workers, their answers are a mirror image of their responses regarding the potential impact of increased foreign trade on companies. Fifty-nine percent of those polled say that "increased trade between the United States and other countries" will mostlyhurtAmerican workers, while only 35% say that it would help them. Additionally, in response to a different question asked specifically about increased trade with China, 49% of Americans say that such an increase in trade would decrease the number of American jobs, while 41% said that it would increase them.
A more complex question included in the poll suggests that human rights arguments may also have some potential to change Americans' opinions. The question included a "pro" argument which stressed that increased trade with China was warranted because it would "promote more economic, political and religious freedoms in that country," while the "con" argument stressed that "the U.S. should not increase trade with China until the Chinese government gives more economic, political and religious freedom to its citizens." Given these two arguments about the impact of trade on freedoms, the public comes down on the side of the latter "do not increase trade" position by a 61% to 35% margin.
Survey Methods
The results reported here are based on telephone interviews with a
randomly selected national sample of 1,010 adults, 18 years and
older, conducted November 18-21, 1999. For results based on this
sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum
error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or
minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
Do you favor or oppose the recent agreement between China and the United States that would allow China to join the World Trade Organization?
BASED ON -- 511 -- NATIONAL ADULTS ASKED FORM B; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Favor | 54% |
| Oppose | 33 |
| No opinion | 13 |
| 100% |
Which of the following statements comes closer to your view -- [ROTATE: 1) The U.S. should increase trade with China now, because doing so will promote more economic, political and religious freedoms in that country (or) 2) The U.S. should not increase trade with China until the Chinese government gives more economic, political and religious freedom to its citizens]?
BASED ON -- 511 -- NATIONAL ADULTS ASKED FORM B; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Increase trade with China now | 35% |
| Wait for Chinese reforms | 61 |
| No opinion | 4 |
| 100% |
In your view, would more foreign trade between the United States and China increase or decrease the number of jobs available for American workers in the United States?
BASED ON -- 511 -- NATIONAL ADULTS ASKED FORM B; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Increase | 41% |
| Decrease | 49 |
| HAVE NO EFFECT (vol.) | 3 |
| No opinion | 7 |
| 100% |
(vol.) = volunteered response
