GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- This week Pat Buchanan announced his intention to leave the Republican Party and become a candidate for the Reform Party's 2000 presidential nomination. A new Gallup poll, conducted October 21-24, suggests that his candidacy, at least right now, may have little impact on the general election contest if, as still seems likely, it involves Vice President Al Gore and Texas Governor George W. Bush. If the contest should become very close, however, the slightly greater number of Bush than Gore supporters who would vote for Buchanan could give the Democratic candidate a victory that might otherwise go to Bush.
In a hypothetical two-way race between Gore and Bush, the Texas governor currently leads the vice president by nine percentage points among all American adults (52% to 43%), by eight points among registered voters (52% to 44%), and by seven points among "regular" voters (51% to 44%). Regular voters are those who are registered and who voted in the last presidential election. Each of those margins is reduced by three percentage points if Buchanan is listed as a Reform Party candidate, although Buchanan himself draws only 5% support, regardless of the composition of the electorate. Thus, among "regular" voters, Bush leads Gore by just 48% to 44% if Buchanan is a candidate, compared to 51% to 44% if Buchanan is not a candidate.
Despite the three-point drop in Bush's lead if Buchanan is a candidate, the number of Democrats, independents, and Republicans who would support Buchanan is identical at 5% each, suggesting that despite Buchanan's previous association with the Republican Party, his appeal is not easily defined by normal partisan groupings. His appeal is greater among conservatives (7%) than among moderates (3%) and liberals (5%), but -- given Buchanan's strong conservative orientation -- these differences are not as stark as one might expect. His appeal is also highly related to income, as he receives only 2% support from Americans who earn more than $50,000 a year, but 7% from those who earn less than that amount.
Republicans Divided Over Buchanan's Abandonment of
GOP
Republicans are about evenly divided on whether Buchanan should
leave the Republican Party, with 38% saying he should stay in the
party and 41% saying he should leave. They are also divided on what
effect he might have on the GOP's chances in the 2000 election.
Although this poll suggests that Buchanan's candidacy is likely to
have only a slight influence on the presidential race, about a
third of Republicans -- 37% -- believe that if Buchanan were to run
as the Reform Party's candidate, it would hurt the Republican
Party's chances of winning the 2000 presidential election. Another
12%, however, believe that Buchanan's candidacy would actually help
the Republicans, while almost half -- 46% -- say it would have no
effect.
Buchanan Ahead of Trump Among Reform Party
"Supporters"
Buchanan's nomination as the Reform Party presidential candidate
cannot be taken for granted, as Donald Trump announced this week
that he, too, was switching his political allegiance to the Reform
Party and would likely be seeking its nomination for president. But
the poll shows that among the 16% of Americans who consider
themselves "supporters" of the Reform Party, Buchanan would beat
Trump by a margin of 57% to 32%, while among all Americans,
Buchanan leads Trump by 48% to 29%.
When asked how likely they would be to vote for Buchanan in the general election if he were to become the Reform Party's presidential candidate, 12% of the Reform Party's supporters said they would definitely vote for him, and another 33% said they would consider doing so. When asked the same question about Trump, just 8% of Reform Party supporters said they would vote for him, and another 24% said they would consider it.
Survey Methods
The results reported here are based on telephone interviews with a
randomly selected national sample of 1,005 adults, 18 years and
older, conducted October 21-24, 1999. For results based on the
whole sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the
maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is
plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error,
question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys
can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2000. [RANDOM ORDER: Family Research Council Chairman, Gary Bauer; Political commentator, Patrick Buchanan; Texas Governor, George W. Bush; Businessman, Steve Forbes; Arizona Senator, John McCain; Utah Senator, Orrin Hatch; Political commentator, Alan Keyes]?
BASED ON --403-- REPUBLICANS/LEAN REPUBLICAN; ±5 PCT PTS
| Bsh | Dol | Qay | Frb | McC | Buc | Bau | Htc | Key | No | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans | ||||||||||
| 1999
Oct 21-24 |
66% | -- | -- | 7 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 1999
Oct 8-10 |
60% | 11 | -- | 4 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 1999
Sep 10-14 |
62% | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 1999 Aug 16-18 | 61% | 13 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 1999 Jun 25-27 |
59% | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -- | 6 |
| 1999 Jun 4-5 | 46% | 14 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | -- | -- | 5 |
| 1999 May 23-24 | 46% | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | -- | -- | 5 |
| 1999 Apr 30-May 2 | 42% | 24 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -- | -- | 5 |
| 1999 Apr 13-14 | 53% | 16 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | -- | -- | 2 |
-- Candidate's name not included in list for that survey (either
because person had not yet announced candidacy, or because
candidate had dropped out of the race)
Bsh: Bush
Dol: Dole
Qay: Quayle
Frb: Forbes
McC: McCain
Buc: Buchanan
Bau: Bauer
Htc: Hatch
Key: Keyes
No: None/ Other/ No opinion
Now suppose that the year 2000 presidential election were being held today, and it included Al Gore as the Democratic candidate, George W. Bush as the Republican candidate, and Political commentator, Patrick Buchanan, as the Reform Party candidate. Would you vote for -- [ROTATE 1-3: 1) Al Gore, the Democrat, 2) George W. Bush, the Republican, 3) Patrick Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate]?
As of today do you lean toward Gore, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican, or Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate?
BASED ON -- 493 -- NATIONAL ADULTS ASKED FORM A; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Al Gore | George W. Bush | Pat Buchanan | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Oct 21-24 | 42% | 48 | 5 | 5 |
| 1999 Oct 8-10 | 38% | 51 | 9 | 2 |
| 1999 Sep 23-26 | 37% | 49 | 9 | 5 |
In general, how likely are you to vote for Pat Buchanan if he leaves the Republican Party and runs as the Reform Party's presidential candidate next November. Do you think you would definitely vote for Buchanan if he were the Reform Party candidate, would you consider voting for him, or would you definitely not vote for that candidate?
BASED ON -- 512 -- NATIONAL ADULTS ASKED FORM B; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Definitely vote for Buchanan | 4% |
| Consider voting for Buchanan | 26 |
| Definitely not vote for Buchanan | 65 |
| No opinion | 5 |
| 100% |
In general, how likely are you to vote for Donald Trump if he runs as the Reform Party's presidential candidate next November. Do you think you would definitely vote for Trump if he were the Reform Party candidate, would you consider voting for him, or would you definitely not vote for that candidate?
BASED ON -- 512 -- NATIONAL ADULTS ASKED FORM B; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Definitely vote for Trump | 2% |
| Consider voting for Trump | 15 |
| Definitely not vote for Trump | 79 |
| No opinion | 4 |
| 100% |
BASED ON --403-- REPUBLICANS/LEAN REPUBLICAN; ±5 PCT PTS
| Bsh | Dol | Qay | Frb | McC | Buc | Bau | Htc | Key | No | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Oct 21-24 | ||||||||||
| With Buchanan | 66% | -- | -- | 7 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| Without Buchanan | 68% | -- | -- | 8 | 11 | -- | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
Bsh: Bush
Dol: Dole
Qay: Quayle
Frb: Forbes
McC: McCain
Buc: Buchanan
Bau: Bauer
Htc: Hatch
Key: Keyes
No: None/ Other/ No opinion