GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- In the same week that George W. Bush found fault with Republican Party politics and philosophy in a major policy speech, a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds national Republicans undeterred in their support for the Texas governor. Not only does he continue to attract widespread support for the Republican nomination and to maintain a substantial lead over Democratic challengers in general election trial heats, he also enjoys high confidence levels within his party for the direction his policies would give the nation.
According to the new poll, conducted October 8-10, Bush maintains a firm hold on his position as the top choice of Republicans for their presidential nomination, far ahead of the seven other major candidates in the race. Bush also continues to be viewed favorably by more than nine in ten Republicans. And when asked who should have more influence over the direction the Republican Party takes in the next year, 55% of rank-and-file Republicans choose Bush, while just 35% choose the Republican leaders in Congress.
The image of Bush among Republican respondents in this survey seems to be of a party leader who can do no wrong. The poll demonstrates, paradoxically, that Republicans disagree with the specific negative sentiments about the GOP expressed by Bush, but react favorably to the general fact that the Republican governor has criticized his own party.
Bush Election Basics Hold Firm
There has been little change in Republicans' support for George W.
Bush over the past two weeks, with the new Gallup poll finding him
acceptable to at least three in four Republicans nationwide. Bush
is now chosen by 60% of Republicans as the person they are most
likely to support for the Republican presidential nomination --
essentially equal to the 62% he received in a mid-September Gallup
survey. With another 15% of Republicans naming Bush as their second
choice, a total of 75% of Republicans -- compared with 76% three
weeks ago -- seem quite willing to see him become their party's
nominee.
The only other Republican to achieve double-digit support for the nomination is Elizabeth Dole, named by 11% of Republicans as their first choice. With Dan Quayle out of the race, the remaining candidates are led by John McCain, now with 8%, up from 5% in late September. Steve Forbes, Pat Buchanan, Gary Bauer, Orrin Hatch and Alan Keyes all garner less than 5% of the GOP vote.
Among all national adults, Bush also continues to beat Democrat Al Gore by a wide margin in a hypothetical matchup for president, 56% to 40%, and leads Bill Bradley by nearly as much, 54% to 42%.
In addition to voting choice, the new Gallup survey finds no significant change in the public's overall view of Governor Bush. Seven in ten Americans, including 93% of Republicans, say they have a favorable opinion of him -- virtually unchanged since a September 23-26 Gallup survey.
Net Favorable Reaction to Critique of the GOP
Respondents in the new survey were asked about Bush's policy
leadership and his criticisms of the GOP in several ways -- both
directly and indirectly -- in an effort to detect any possible
fallout from his recent critique of the party.
- Before any mention was made about Bush's criticisms of the Republican Party, respondents indicated widespread support for Bush's policy leadership. When asked whether Bush's policies would lead the country in the right or wrong direction, 64% of Americans, including 91% of Republicans, said they believe Bush would move the country in the right direction. Bush scores higher on this measure among the general public than either the Republicans in Congress, Bill Clinton or Al Gore.
- When asked who should exert greater influence over the direction of the Republican Party during the next year, a 55% majority of Republicans choose Governor Bush while just 35% choose the Republican leaders in Congress.
- When asked how they feel about George W. Bush as a result of his recent comments "that were critical of the Republican Party," the reaction is net positive. Thirty-eight percent of Americans say they feel more favorable toward him while just 25% feel less favorable. (The remainder, 37%, express no opinion.) The reaction among Republicans is even more positive, with 45% saying the critiques made them now feel more favorable toward Bush while only 21% feel less favorable.
A Closer Look at Bush's Barbs
Later in the same survey, respondents were asked about some of the
specific criticisms of the GOP that Bush expressed in his Manhattan
Institute speech -- using paraphrased statements, and without
attributing them to Bush. The interesting finding is that, despite
their earlier support for Bush on policy and on his criticism of
the party, a majority of Republicans disagree with his specific
criticisms.
Bush's first criticism concerned his perception that the GOP has failed to take sufficient notice of the social progress now being made at the state and municipal levels. According to Bush's prepared speech (see www.georgewbush.com):
Too often, on social issues, my party has painted an image of America slouching toward Gomorrah. Of course there are challenges to the character and compassion of our nation -- too many broken homes and broken lives. But many of our problems -- particularly education, crime and welfare dependence -- are yielding to good sense and strength and idealism.
The Gallup survey summarized these remarks by asking respondents whether "the Republican Party has been too pessimistic about moral standards in the United States." Only 35% of Republicans agreed, while 63% disagreed.
Bush also charged that the party has failed to show sufficient concern for the needy in society:
Too often, my party has focused on the national economy, to the exclusion of all else -- speaking a sterile language of rates and numbers, of CBO this and GNP that. Of course we want growth and vigor in our economy. But there are human problems that persist in the shadow of affluence.
Here again, just over one-third of Republicans, 38%, agree with the summarized restatement that "the Republican Party has not been compassionate enough about the needs of the poor"; 58% disagree.
Finally, Bush charged that the Republican Party has gotten away from the Founding Fathers' concept of a small but effective government, saying:
Too often, my party has confused the need for limited government with a disdain for government itself.
On this point even fewer Republicans side with the Bush perspective. Only 25% of Republicans agree with the statement that "the Republican Party has gone too far in its criticisms of the federal government," while 72% disagree.
Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly
selected national sample of 976 adults, 18 years and older,
conducted October 8-10, 1999. For results based on this sample, one
can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error
attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus
3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2000. [RANDOM ORDER: Family Research Council Chairman, Gary Bauer; Political commentator, Patrick Buchanan; Texas Governor, George W. Bush; Former Red Cross Director, Elizabeth Dole; Businessman, Steve Forbes; Arizona Senator, John McCain; Utah Senator, Orrin Hatch; Political commentator, Alan Keyes]?
BASED ON -- 413 -- REPUBLICANS/LEAN REPUBLICAN; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Bsh | Dol | Qay | Frb | McC | Buc | Bau | Htc | Key | No | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans | ||||||||||
| 1999
Oct 8-10 |
60% | 11% | --% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 6% |
| 1999
Sep 10-14 |
62 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 1999 Aug 16-18 | 61 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 1999 Jun 25-27 |
59 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -- | 6 |
| 1999 Jun 4-5 | 46 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | -- | -- | 5 |
| 1999 May 23-24 | 46 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | -- | -- | 5 |
| 1999 Apr 30-May 2 | 42 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -- | -- | 5 |
| 1999 Apr 13-14 | 53 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | -- | -- | 2 |
-- Candidates name not included in list for that survey (either
because person had not yet announced candidacy, or because
candidate had dropped out of the race)
Bsh: Bush
Dol: Dole
Qay: Quayle
Frb: Forbes
McC: McCain
Buc: Buchanan
Bau: Bauer
Htc: Hatch
Key: Keyes
No: None/ Other/ No opinion
Who would be your second choice?
4/5 COMBINED: TOTAL FIRST AND SECOND CHOICE
| Bsh | Dol | Qay | Frb | McC | Buc | Bau | Htc | Key | No | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans | ||||||||||
| 1999
Oct 8-10 |
75% | 38% | --% | 12% | 20% | 13% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 7% |
| 1999
Sep 10-14 |
76 | 37 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 1999
Jun 25-27 |
75 | 35 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 5 | -- | 14 |
Bsh: Bush
Dol: Dole
Qay: Quayle
Frb: Forbes
McC: McCain
Buc: Buchanan
Bau: Bauer
Htc: Hatch
Key: Keyes
No: None/ Other/ No opinion
Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her. First, ... How about... [RANDOM ORDER]
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Never heard of | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Texas Governor George W. Bush | ||||
| (NA) 1999 Oct 8-10 | 70% | 25% | 1% | 4% |
| (NA) 1999 Sep 23-26 | 71 | 22 | 1 | 6 |
| (NA) 1999 Aug 16-18 | 68 | 21 | 1 | 10 |
| (NA) 1999 Jun 25-27 | 69 | 16 | 4 | 11 |
| (NA) 1999 Apr 13-14 | 73 | 15 | 3 | 9 |
| (NA) 1999 Feb 19-21 | 69 | 12 | 5 | 14 |
Who do you want to have more influence over the direction the Republican Party takes over the next year -- [ROTATE 1-2: 1) Texas Governor, George W. Bush (or) 2) The Republican leaders in Congress]?
| Texas Governor, George W. Bush | 50% |
| The Republican leaders in Congress | 37 |
| NEITHER/OTHER (vol.) | 7 |
| No opinion | 6 |
| 100% |
Do you think the policies being proposed by the Republican leaders in the U.S. House and Senate would move the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction?
BASED ON -- 494 -- NATIONAL ADULTS ASKED FORM A; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Right direction | Wrong direction | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| (NA) 1999 Oct 8-10 | 54% | 35% | 11% |
| (NA) 1998 Nov 13-15 | 43 | 40 | 17 |
| (NA) 1998 Oct 23-25 | 47 | 33 | 20 |
| (NA) 1998 Jul 7-8 | 43 | 28 | 29 |
| (NA) 1997 Dec 18-21 | 44 | 36 | 20 |
| (NA) 1997 Apr 18-20 | 46 | 39 | 15 |
| (LV) 1996 Oct 28-29 | 49 | 36 | 15 |
| (NA) 1996 Apr 9-10 | 45 | 41 | 14 |
| (NA) 1995 Dec 15-18 | 44 | 44 | 12 |
| (NA) 1995 Nov 6-8 | 44 | 41 | 15 |
| (NA) 1995 Sep 22-24 | 41 | 44 | 15 |
| (NA) 1995 Mar 27-29 | 53 | 37 | 10 |
| (NA) 1995 Feb 24-26 | 52 | 33 | 15 |
| (NA) 1994 Nov 28-29 | 55 | 27 | 18 |
Do you think the policies being proposed by Bill Clinton would move the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction?
BASED ON -- 482 -- NATIONAL ADULTS ASKED FORM B; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Right direction | Wrong direction | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| (NA) 1999 Oct 8-10 | 60% | 35% | 5% |
| (NA) 1998 Oct 23-25 | 70 | 22 | 8 |
| (NA) 1997 Apr 18-20 | 56 | 33 | 11 |
| (LV) 1996 Oct 28-29 | 55 | 33 | 12 |
| (NA) 1996 Apr 9-10 | 55 | 35 | 10 |
| (NA) 1995 Dec 15-18 | 51 | 39 | 10 |
Next, do you think the policies being proposed by each of the following presidential candidates would move the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction? First, ... How about ... [ROTATED]
| Right direction | Wrong direction | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. George W. Bush | 64% | 27% | 9% |
| B. Al Gore | 52 | 40 | 8 |
As you may know, George W. Bush recently made some comments that were critical of the Republican Party. From what you have heard about this matter, do you feel more favorable or less favorable toward George W. Bush as a result of his comments?
| National adults | Republicans | Independents | Democrats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| More favorable | 38% | 45% | 37% | 33% |
| Less favorable | 25 | 21 | 24 | 31 |
| NO EFFECT (vol.) | 10 | 14 | 10 | 6 |
| NOT FAMILIAR (vol.) | 23 | 17 | 24 | 26 |
| No opinion | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Next, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about the Republican Party? First, ... Next, ... [RANDOM ORDER]
A. The Republican Party has gone too far in its criticisms of the federal government
| National adults | Republicans | Independents | Democrats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agree | 51% | 25% | 51% | 76% |
| Disagree | 45 | 72 | 43 | 21 |
| No opinion | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
B. The Republican Party has not been compassionate enough about the needs of the poor
| National adults | Republicans | Independents | Democrats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agree | 64% | 38% | 70% | 82% |
| Disagree | 33 | 58 | 27 | 16 |
| No opinion | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
C. The Republican Party has been too pessimistic about moral standards in the United States
| National adults | Republicans | Independents | Democrats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agree | 51% | 35% | 54% | 61% |
| Disagree | 46 | 63 | 42 | 36 |
| No opinion | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
(vol.) volunteered response
(NA) national adults
(LV) likely voters