GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows that what had once seemed unlikely now seems quite probable -- a competitive race for the Democratic nomination for president. Conducted over the past weekend, October 8-10, the poll shows that Democrats prefer Vice President Al Gore to former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley by a margin of only 51% to 39%. A month ago, Gore led Bradley among Democrats by more than a two-to-one margin, 63% to 30%. Gore's slippage nationally reflects similar results in some statewide polls, as in New Hampshire and New York, where Gore and Bradley are now within a few percentage points of each other.
The new Gallup poll also shows an overall increase in Bradley's favorability rating nationwide, now at 53% favorable to 20% unfavorable, considerably improved over the 44% to 14% rating Bradley received last month. Most of that increase has come among Democrats, who currently give him a 60% to 17% rating, compared with a 46% to 13% rating in September.
Although Democrats who expressed preferences for either Gore or Bradley were asked their reasons for selecting one candidate over the other, no single issue emerged to explain the sudden surge in Bradley's popularity. Also, Democrats do not seem particularly concerned whether the candidate they prefer actually wins: just over two-thirds each of Bradley supporters and Gore supporters say it would be "acceptable" to them if the opposing candidate won the nomination. Perhaps the question that best correlates with Democrats' vote preferences is one that asked if respondents could describe themselves as "tired of anyone or anything associated with Bill Clinton." Only 24% of the Democrats said yes, but among this group, Bradley leads Gore by 48% to 39%. Among the rest of the Democrats, Gore leads Bradley by 55% to 36%.
Major Income and Gender Gaps
Bradley's increased support comes only among Democrats who earn
more than $30,000 a year; among lower-income Democrats, there has
been no change in candidate preference from last month's poll. The
new poll shows that Bradley leads Gore by 52% to 39% among
Democrats whose annual income is between $30,000 and $50,000, and
that Bradley ties Gore among those earning over $50,000 a year. But
among Democrats earning less than $30,000 a year, Gore leads
Bradley by more than a two-to-one margin, little changed from the
previous month.
Men are considerably more likely than women to have rallied around Bradley's candidacy over the past month, with male Democrats now expressing a slight preference for the former college and professional basketball star, by 43% to 40%, compared with their overwhelming 61% to 31% support for Gore last month. Female Democrats, on the other hand, maintain a strong preference for the vice president, 56% to 33%, although that is down somewhat from the 64% to 27% margin they gave Gore last month.
While Gore continues to draw greater support from the South than from the rest of the country, even Southern Democrats have expressed less support this month than last. In the South, Gore's support is now at 59% to Bradley's 31%, while it averages about 47% to 42% in the other parts of the country. Last month, however, Southern Democrats supported Gore over Bradley by 71% to 22%, while the rest of the country supported Gore by about a 60% to 33% margin.
Bush Beats Both Democrats
Despite Bradley's surge among Democrats, Texas Governor George W.
Bush continues to lead both Democratic candidates in the general
election contest, and the margins remain similar whether Bush is
pitted against Bradley or Gore. The Texas Governor leads Bradley by
54% to 42%, and Gore by 56% to 40%. The margins of Bush's leads
over Gore and Bradley have been roughly the same in four polls that
go back to April of this year.
Survey Methods
The results reported here are based on telephone interviews with a
randomly selected national sample of 976 adults, 18 years and
older, conducted October 8-10, 1999. The sample includes 468
respondents who identify as Democrats or as independents who "lean"
to the Democratic Party. For results based on the whole sample, one
can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error
attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus
3 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 468
Democrats, the margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage
points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or
bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2000? [ROTATE: Former New Jersey Senator, Bill Bradley; Vice President, Al Gore]?
BASED ON -- 468 -- DEMOCRATS/LEAN DEMOCRATIC; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Gore | Bradley | Other (vol.) | None/ No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | ||||
| 1999 Oct 8-10 | 51% | 39% | 1% | 9% |
| 1999 Sep 10-14 | 63 | 30 | * | 7 |
| 1999 Aug 16-18 | 58 | 31 | 1 | 10 |
| 1999 Jun 25-27 | 64 | 28 | 1 | 7 |
| 1999 Jun 4-5 | 63 | 28 | 0 | 9 |
| 1999 May 23-24 | 59 | 30 | 0 | 11 |
| 1999 Apr 30-May 2 | 66 | 23 | 1 | 10 |
| 1999 Apr 13-14 | 54 | 34 | 1 | 11 |
If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Governor George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Gore, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?
| Al Gore | George W. Bush | OTHER (vol.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NA) 1999 Oct 8-10 | 40% | 56% | *% | 4% |
| (NA) 1999 Sep 23-26 | 37 | 55 | * | 8 |
| (NA) 1999 Sep 10-14 | 39 | 56 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1999 Aug 16-18 | 41 | 55 | * | 4 |
| (NA) 1999 Jul 16-18 | 38 | 55 | * | 7 |
| (NA) 1999 Jun 25-27 | 41 | 56 | * | 3 |
| (NA) 1999 Jun 4-5 | 40 | 56 | * | 4 |
| (NA) 1999 May 23-24 | 40 | 54 | * | 6 |
| (NA) 1999 Apr 30-May 2 | 40 | 56 | * | 4 |
| (NA) 1999 Apr 13-14 | 38 | 59 | * | 3 |
| (NA) 1999 Mar 12-14 | 41 | 56 | * | 3 |
| (NA) 1999 Mar 5-7 | 41 | 56 | * | 3 |
| (NA) 1999 Feb 19-21 | 43 | 54 | * | 3 |
| (NA) 1999 Jan 8-10 | 47 | 48 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1998 May 8-10 | 46 | 50 | * | 4 |
If former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Governor George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Bill Bradley, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Bill Bradley, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
| Bill Bradley | George W. Bush | OTHER (vol.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Oct 8-10 | 42% | 54% | *% | 4% |
| 1999 Sep 10-14 | 37 | 57 | * | 6 |
| 1999 Aug 16-18 | 40 | 55 | * | 5 |
| 1999 Apr 13-14 | 34 | 61 | * | 5 |
Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her. First, ... How about... [RANDOM ORDER]
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Never Heard Of | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Al Gore | ||||
| (NA) 1999 Oct 8-10 | 54% | 42% | 1% | 3% |
| (NA) 1999 Sep 23-26 | 55 | 40 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1999 Aug 16-18 | 58 | 37 | * | 5 |
| (NA) 1999 Aug 3-4 | 52 | 40 | 1 | 7 |
| (NA) 1999 Jul 22-25 | 53 | 35 | 1 | 11 |
| (NA) 1999 Jun 25-27 | 56 | 39 | 1 | 4 |
| (NA) 1999 Apr 30-May 2 | 55 | 37 | 1 | 7 |
| (NA) 1999 Apr 13-14 | 54 | 39 | 1 | 6 |
| (NA) 1999 Feb 19-21 | 59 | 33 | 1 | 7 |
| (NA) 1999 Feb 4-8 | 61 | 31 | * | 8 |
| (NA) 1998 Dec 28-29 | 57 | 28 | 1 | 14 |
| (NA) 1998 Sep 14-15 | 56 | 32 | 2 | 10 |
| (NA) 1998 Feb 13-15 | 57 | 33 | 2 | 8 |
| (NA) 1998 Jan 30-Feb 1 | 62 | 31 | 1 | 6 |
| (NA) 1998 Jan 24-25 | 56 | 32 | 1 | 11 |
| (NA) 1998 Jan 23-24 | 55 | 33 | 1 | 11 |
| (NA) 1997 Dec 18-21 | 50 | 37 | 3 | 10 |
| (NA) 1997 Oct 27-29 | 53 | 38 | 1 | 8 |
| (NA) 1997 Oct 3-5 | 47 | 42 | 1 | 10 |
| (NA) 1997 Sep 25-28 | 51 | 39 | 2 | 8 |
| (NA) 1997 Sep 6-7 | 55 | 32 | 3 | 10 |
| (NA) 1997 Jun 26-29 | 57 | 32 | 1 | 10 |
| (NA) 1997 Apr 18-20 | 56 | 34 | 1 | 9 |
| (NA) 1997 Mar 24-26 | 57 | 31 | 2 | 10 |
| (NA) 1997 Jan 3-5 | 60 | 26 | 2 | 12 |
| (LV) 1996 Oct 26-29 | 61 | 31 | 1 | 7 |
| (RV) 1996 Aug 30-Sep 1 | 61 | 27 | 2 | 10 |
| (RV) 1996 Aug 28-29 | 60 | 26 | 2 | 12 |
| (RV) 1996 Aug 16-18 | 59 | 30 | * | 11 |
| (RV) 1996 Aug 11 | 59 | 29 | 1 | 11 |
| (NA) 1996 Jan 12-15 | 52 | 34 | 2 | 12 |
| (NA) 1995 Jan 16-18 | 57 | 29 | 3 | 11 |
| (NA) 1994 Sep 6-7 | 56 | 31 | 2 | 11 |
| (NA) 1994 Apr 22-24 | 60 | 28 | 2 | 10 |
| (NA) 1994 Mar 25-27 | 56 | 29 | 2 | 13 |
| (NA) 1994 Jan 15-17 | 62 | 26 | 3 | 9 |
| (NA) 1993 Nov 2-4 | 49 | 30 | -- | 21 |
| (NA) 1993 Jul 19-21 | 55 | 30 | -- | 15 |
| (NA) 1993 Apr 22-24 | 55 | 24 | -- | 21 |
| (NA) 1993 Jan 18-19 | 63 | 22 | -- | 15 |
| (NA) 1992 Nov 10-11 | 56 | 28 | -- | 16 |
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Never Heard Of | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley | ||||
| (NA) 1999 Oct 8-10 | 53% | 20% | 9% | 18% |
| (NA) 1999 Sep 23-26 | 44 | 14 | 21 | 21 |
| (NA) 1999 Aug 16-18 | 48 | 11 | 18 | 23 |
| (NA) 1999 Apr 13-14 | 46 | 10 | 20 | 24 |
| (NA) 1999 Feb 19-21 | 38 | 9 | 33 | 20 |
If Bill Bradley wins the Democratic nomination for president next year, would that be acceptable or not acceptable to you personally?
BASED ON -- 231 - DEMOCRATS WHO PREFER GORE FOR THE NOMINATION; ± 7 PCT PTS
| Yes, acceptable | 68% |
| No, not acceptable | 27 |
| No opinion | 5 |
| 100% |
If Al Gore wins the Democratic nomination for president next year, would that be acceptable or not acceptable to you personally?
BASED ON -- 183 -- DEMOCRATS WHO PREFER BRADLEY FOR THE NOMINATION; ± 8 PCT PTS
| Yes, acceptable | 68% |
| No, not acceptable | 30 |
| No opinion | 2 |
| 100% |
* Less than 0.5%
(vol.) volunteered response
(NA) national adults
(RV) registered voters
(LV) likely voters